Defi市場的複雜性和波動性的日益增長

以下是Intotheblock市場總監Vincent Maliepaard的來賓帖子和分析。

DeFi has matured into a complex web of lending markets, stablecoin ecosystems, and liquidity pools. While this growth comes with a broad range of opportunities, new forms of risk can emerge suddenly and require significant expertise to navigate effectively.

Defi已經成熟到一個複雜的貸款市場，Stablecoin生態系統和流動性池。儘管這種增長帶有廣泛的機會，但新的風險形式可能會突然出現，並且需要有效的專業知識才能有效地導航。

The Growing Complexity and Volatility of DeFi Markets

Defi市場的複雜性和波動性的日益增長

The DeFi market has grown significantly over the past years, and currently boasts around $88 billion in total value locked. However, the space is also fragmented, with hundreds of DeFi protocols across different chains, some with strong user bases and a good track record, and others with more novel designs. This complexity requires a well-thought out risk management framework that considers the most common economic risk in a variety of ways. To help put you in the right mindset, let’s consider a few major risk events that could occur:

在過去的幾年中，Defi市場的發展幅度很大，目前擁有約880億美元的總價值鎖定。但是，該空間也被分散，具有數百種不同鏈條的Defi協議，有些具有強大的用戶群和良好的記錄，而另一些則具有更多新穎的設計。這種複雜性需要一個經過深思熟慮的風險管理框架，以各種方式考慮最常見的經濟風險。為了幫助您置於正確的心態，讓我們考慮可能發生的一些重大風險事件：

These examples show how quickly things can go wrong if you’re not on top of a wide range of risk metrics relevant to your positions. Sudden liquidity shortfalls, peg breaks, and mass liquidations highlight the need for continuous, in-depth risk monitoring. In fast-moving markets, timing is everything – by the time an average investor reacts to Twitter rumors or price charts, the damage might already be done.

這些示例表明，如果您不在與您的職位相關的廣泛風險指標之上，則出問題了。突然的流動性短缺，PEG斷裂和大規模清算突出了對連續，深入的風險監測的必要性。在快速發展的市場中，時機就是一切 - 到普通投資者對Twitter謠言或價格圖表做出反應時，可能已經造成損失。

Spotting Risk Early in Aave

在AAVE早期發現風險

Aave, one of DeFi’s largest money markets, is a key protocol to watch when determining potential risks in the market. If you’re an institutional investor in DeFi, chances are high you’ve deployed capital in the protocol. But even if you’re not deploying into Aave, the protocol’s strong position could be important when watching out for potential risk events in the broader market. Let’s take a practical example of how you’d watch for risk on Aave.

艾夫（Aave）是最大的貨幣市場之一，是確定市場中潛在風險的關鍵協議。如果您是DEFI的機構投資者，那麼在協議中部署了資本的機會很高。但是，即使您沒有部署到AAVE，在關注更廣泛的市場中潛在的風險事件時，協議的強大立場也可能很重要。讓我們以一個實用的例子說明您如何在AAVE上關注風險。

High-Risk Loan alerts on Aave

AAVE上的高風險貸款警報

We can categorize each loan on Aave by a health factor (based on collateral vs. debt); when that health factor approaches 1.0 (the liquidation threshold), the loan is at high risk of being liquidated.

我們可以通過健康因素將每筆貸款分類為AAVE（基於抵押品與債務）；當該健康因素接近1.0（清算閾值）時，貸款面臨著清算的高風險。

A sudden increase in high-risk loans can be the result of extreme price movements, causing the collateral in the loans to drop. When this is significant enough, it can force liquidations and even create cascading liquidations as mentioned before. Continuously monitoring the amount of high-risk loans is somewhat impractical, but nonetheless essential. Tools like IntoTheBlock’s risk Pulse can help spot these conditions automatically, as shown in the example below.

高風險貸款的突然增加可能是由於極端價格變動的結果，導致貸款的抵押品下降。當這足夠重要的時候，它可以迫使清算，甚至會如前所述產生級聯清算。不斷監視高風險貸款的數量有些不切實際，但至關重要。如下示例所示，諸如Intotheblock的風險脈沖之類的工具可以自動發現這些條件。

Watching Liquidity Flows

觀看流動性流動

Another key signal on Aave is large movements of assets into or out of the protocol. Peaks in liquidity flows, specifically in outlfows, can indicate risk conditions. For instance, a large withdrawal of WETH from Aave may suggest that a whale is pulling collateral, perhaps out of concern over market volatility or to deploy elsewhere.

AAVE上的另一個關鍵信號是大量資產轉移到協議中。流動性流中的峰值，特別是在Outlfows中，可能表明風險條件。例如，韋斯（Weth）從AAVE中大量撤離可能表明，鯨魚正在撤離抵押品，可能是出於對市場波動或部署在其他地方的關注。

This sudden outflow can tighten the available liquidity on Aave. If a lot of WETH is taken out, there’s less WETH liquidity to borrow, and utilization for remaining WETH might shoot up, driving interest rates higher.

這種突然的流出可以收緊AAVE上的可用流動性。如果取出了很多韋斯，借用的韋斯流動性就會減少，而保留韋斯的利用可能會射擊，使利率更高。

Conversely, a surge of WETH deposits could temporarily boost Aave’s liquidity and signal that big players are gearing up to lend or provide collateral for borrowing.

相反，韋斯礦床的激增可能會暫時提高AAVE的流動性，並表明大玩家正在準備借給或提供借貸抵押品。

Both scenarios carry implications: a liquidity drop raises the risk of higher slippage or inability to withdraw for others, whereas a big influx might precede increased borrowing (and leverage in the system).

兩種情況都具有含義：流動性下降會增加較高的滑倒或無法退出其他人的風險，而大量湧入可能會在增加借貸之前（以及系統中的槓桿作用）。

Curve: Depeg Alerts and Market Depth Changes for Stablecoin Pools

曲線：DEPEG警報和穩定池的市場深度變化

Another leading DeFi protocol is Curve. Curve is the backbone of stablecoin liquidity in DeFi, hosting pools where users trade and stake stablecoins and other pegged assets. By design, Curve pools are stable swap pools meant to hold assets at equal value, which makes any depeg event or imbalance immediately concerning. Risk monitoring on Curve focuses on peg stability and market depth: essentially, are the assets in the pool holding their expected value, and is there sufficient liquidity on each side of the pool?

另一個領先的DEFI協議是曲線。曲線是DEFI中Stablecoin流動性的骨幹，是用戶交易和股份Stablecoins和其他固定資產的池。根據設計，曲線池是穩定的掉期池，旨在將資產保持相等的價值，這使任何DEPEG事件或不平衡都立即引起。曲線上的風險監控重點是固定穩定性和市場深度：從本質上講，池中的資產是否具有其預期價值，並且池的每一側都有足夠的流動性嗎？

Depeg Risks

DEPEG風險

When a token in a Curve pool drifts from its intended peg, LPs are often the first to feel the impact. A small price deviation can quickly spiral into a pool imbalance — the depegged asset floods the pool as others exit, leaving LPs holding the riskier side.

當曲線池中的一個令牌從其預期的釘中漂移時，LPS通常是第一個感受到影響的人。價格偏離很小的偏差可能會迅速旋轉到泳池不平衡 - 當其他人退出時，Depeggged Asset淹沒了游泳池，使LPS保持風險更高。

Recent events like FDUSD’s depeg on April 2, 2025, highlight the importance of rapid detection. As redemptions hit and rumors spread, FDUSD-heavy Curve pools skewed sharply. LPs caught unaware faced mounting impermanent loss and poor exit liquidity.

最近的事件（例如2025年4月2日的FDUSD DEPEG）強調了快速檢測的重要性。隨著救贖和謠言的蔓延，FDUSD繁重的曲線池傾斜了。 LP抓住了面臨的無常損失和出口流動性不佳。

Early alerts flagging the initial drift (e.g., FDUSD < $0.98) would have given LPs time to exit or hedge.

早期警報標記初始漂移（例如，FDUSD <$ 0.98）將為LPS提供時間退出或樹籬。

And it’s not just fiat stables. Staked tokens like sdPENDLE have also shown dislocations in Curve. When these wrappers slip in price versus their underlying assets, their share in pools can balloon, a signal that LP risk is rising fast.

這不僅僅是菲亞特馬s。像SDPENDLE這樣的固定令牌也顯示出曲線中的位錯。當這些包裝紙以價格與基本資產相比，它們在泳池中的份額是氣泡，這表明LP風險正在快速上升。

Liquidity Depth as a Signal

流動性深度作為信號

Curve risk isn’t only about price, it’s

曲線風險不僅與價格有關