Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes預測，到2025年底，比特幣（BTC）可能會飆升至250,000美元

Bitmex直言不諱的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes回來了另一個大膽的預測：到2025年底，比特幣可以飆升至250000美元。

Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of BitMEX, is known for his bold predictions, and he's not holding back in his latest analysis. This time, he's set his sights on an astounding Bitcoin price point of $250,000 by the end of 2025.

Bitmex直言不諱的聯合創始人亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）以其大膽的預測而聞名，他並沒有阻止他的最新分析。這次，到2025年底，他將目光投向了驚人的比特幣價格點25萬美元。

But how does he arrive at such a bullish outlook, and what might stand in the way?

但是，他如何到達如此看好的前景，這可能會阻礙什麼？

Let’s break down some of the key observations and predictions.

讓我們分解一些關鍵的觀察和預測。

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Surpasses 4.5%: A Red Flag

美國10年財政收益超過4.5％：危險信號

According to Hayes, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising above 4.5% is a critical threshold. It signals that the financial system is under some level of stress, as investors are demanding a higher yield to hold government bonds.

根據海斯的說法，美國10年的美國財政收益率上升到4.5％以上是一個關鍵的門檻。它表明金融體係處於一定程度上的壓力，因為投資者要求更高的收益率持有政府債券。

This sustained pressure could eventually push the Fed to intervene more directly, not just by adjusting interest rates but also by injecting liquidity into the banking system.

這種持續的壓力最終可能會推動美聯儲更直接地干預，而不僅是通過調整利率，而且還通過向銀行系統注入流動性來促進。

Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently touched upon this, noting that while markets are currently functioning “fine for now,” the Fed is cognizant of liquidity risks in the periphery of the financial system. Should financial conditions deteriorate, the central bank has tools, beyond rate cuts, to respond.

波士頓美聯儲總統蘇珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）最近談到了這一點，並指出，儘管市場目前正常運作“現在罰款”，但美聯儲在金融體系的外圍認識到流動性風險。如果財務狀況惡化，中央銀行具有削減稅率的工具，可以做出回應。

This is exactly the kind of environment Hayes sees as ripe for Bitcoin to thrive in.

這正是Hayes認為比特幣可以蓬勃發展的環境。

Trade War 2.0: Inflation and Instability

貿易戰2.0：通貨膨脹和不穩定

The escalating economic tension between the U.S. and China is another factor that could contribute to increased inflation and instability in traditional markets.

美國和中國之間的經濟緊張局勢不斷提高，這是另一個可能導致傳統市場通貨膨脹和不穩定的因素。

Both countries are set to triple tariffs on each other’s goods. The U.S. will impose a 145% tariff on items like handbags, luggage, and food from China, while China will apply a 125% tariff on American products such as vitamins and seafood.

兩國都將對彼此的商品徵收三重關稅。美國將對來自中國的手袋，行李和食物等物品徵收145％的關稅，而中國將對維生素和海鮮等美國產品徵收125％的關稅。

Although there’s a 90-day window before the new tariffs fully kick in, the long-term uncertainty remains.

儘管在新的關稅完全啟動之前有一個90天的窗口，但長期不確定性仍然存在。

According to Hayes, this factor will ultimately force the Fed to intervene, further validating his thesis that Bitcoin stands to benefit.

根據海耶斯的說法，這一因素最終將迫使美聯儲進行干預，進一步驗證他的論點，即比特幣具有受益。

In his view, these macroeconomic stress signals are loud and clear — and they point to one thing: accumulation time for Bitcoin.

在他看來，這些宏觀經濟壓力信號響亮而清晰 - 它們指出了一件事：比特幣的積累時間。

When the Fed Prints, Bitcoin Pumps

美聯儲打印時，比特幣泵

Bitcoin has a track record of reacting positively to periods of expansive monetary policy.

比特幣具有對廣泛的貨幣政策時期做出積極反應的記錄。

Recall 2020, when the Fed responded to the pandemic with trillions in stimulus. In that year, Bitcoin soared from under $10K to nearly $70K in just over a year.

召回2020年，當美聯儲以刺激中的數万億美元對大流行作出反應。在那一年，比特幣在僅一年多的時間內從$ 100k到近7萬美元。

Hayes thinks we’re heading into a similar cycle. As central banks, especially the Fed, prepare to keep liquidity flowing to ease market pressures, Bitcoin could once again ride the wave.

海耶斯認為我們正在進入類似的周期。隨著中央銀行，尤其是美聯儲，準備保持流動性流動以減輕市場壓力，比特幣可能再次騎行。

While some might call the $250K prediction extreme, Hayes believes the math checks out — especially if inflation continues, interest rates stay elevated, and central banks are left with few options besides turning the money printer back on.

儘管有些人可能將$ 250K的預測極端稱為“數學”檢查，尤其是如果通貨膨脹率繼續，利率保持升高，而中央銀行除了重新打開貨幣打印機之外，還有幾乎沒有選擇權。

This will be a high-stakes bet on macro forces.

這將是對宏觀力量的高風險賭注。