Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes预测，到2025年底，比特币（BTC）可能会飙升至250,000美元

Bitmex直言不讳的联合创始人Arthur Hayes回来了另一个大胆的预测：到2025年底，比特币可以飙升至250000美元。

Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of BitMEX, is known for his bold predictions, and he's not holding back in his latest analysis. This time, he's set his sights on an astounding Bitcoin price point of $250,000 by the end of 2025.

Bitmex直言不讳的联合创始人亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）以其大胆的预测而闻名，他并没有阻止他的最新分析。这次，到2025年底，他将目光投向了惊人的比特币价格点25万美元。

But how does he arrive at such a bullish outlook, and what might stand in the way?

但是，他如何到达如此看好的前景，这可能会阻碍什么？

Let’s break down some of the key observations and predictions.

让我们分解一些关键的观察和预测。

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Surpasses 4.5%: A Red Flag

美国10年财政收益超过4.5％：危险信号

According to Hayes, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising above 4.5% is a critical threshold. It signals that the financial system is under some level of stress, as investors are demanding a higher yield to hold government bonds.

根据海斯的说法，美国10年的美国财政收益率上升到4.5％以上是一个关键的门槛。它表明金融体系处于一定程度上的压力，因为投资者要求更高的收益率持有政府债券。

This sustained pressure could eventually push the Fed to intervene more directly, not just by adjusting interest rates but also by injecting liquidity into the banking system.

这种持续的压力最终可能会推动美联储更直接地干预，而不仅是通过调整利率，而且还通过向银行系统注入流动性来促进。

Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently touched upon this, noting that while markets are currently functioning “fine for now,” the Fed is cognizant of liquidity risks in the periphery of the financial system. Should financial conditions deteriorate, the central bank has tools, beyond rate cuts, to respond.

波士顿美联储总统苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）最近谈到了这一点，并指出，尽管市场目前正常运作“现在罚款”，但美联储在金融体系的外围认识到流动性风险。如果财务状况恶化，中央银行具有削减税率的工具，可以做出回应。

This is exactly the kind of environment Hayes sees as ripe for Bitcoin to thrive in.

这正是Hayes认为比特币可以蓬勃发展的环境。

Trade War 2.0: Inflation and Instability

贸易战2.0：通货膨胀和不稳定

The escalating economic tension between the U.S. and China is another factor that could contribute to increased inflation and instability in traditional markets.

美国和中国之间的经济紧张局势不断提高，这是另一个可能导致传统市场通货膨胀和不稳定的因素。

Both countries are set to triple tariffs on each other’s goods. The U.S. will impose a 145% tariff on items like handbags, luggage, and food from China, while China will apply a 125% tariff on American products such as vitamins and seafood.

两国都将对彼此的商品征收三重关税。美国将对来自中国的手袋，行李和食物等物品征收145％的关税，而中国将对维生素和海鲜等美国产品征收125％的关税。

Although there’s a 90-day window before the new tariffs fully kick in, the long-term uncertainty remains.

尽管在新的关税完全启动之前有一个90天的窗口，但长期不确定性仍然存在。

According to Hayes, this factor will ultimately force the Fed to intervene, further validating his thesis that Bitcoin stands to benefit.

根据海耶斯的说法，这一因素最终将迫使美联储进行干预，进一步验证他的论点，即比特币具有受益。

In his view, these macroeconomic stress signals are loud and clear — and they point to one thing: accumulation time for Bitcoin.

在他看来，这些宏观经济压力信号响亮而清晰 - 它们指出了一件事：比特币的积累时间。

When the Fed Prints, Bitcoin Pumps

美联储打印时，比特币泵

Bitcoin has a track record of reacting positively to periods of expansive monetary policy.

比特币具有对广泛的货币政策时期做出积极反应的记录。

Recall 2020, when the Fed responded to the pandemic with trillions in stimulus. In that year, Bitcoin soared from under $10K to nearly $70K in just over a year.

召回2020年，当美联储以刺激中的数万亿美元对大流行作出反应。在那一年，比特币在仅一年多的时间内从$ 100k到近7万美元。

Hayes thinks we’re heading into a similar cycle. As central banks, especially the Fed, prepare to keep liquidity flowing to ease market pressures, Bitcoin could once again ride the wave.

海耶斯认为我们正在进入类似的周期。随着中央银行，尤其是美联储，准备保持流动性流动以减轻市场压力，比特币可能再次骑行。

While some might call the $250K prediction extreme, Hayes believes the math checks out — especially if inflation continues, interest rates stay elevated, and central banks are left with few options besides turning the money printer back on.

尽管有些人可能将$ 250K的预测极端称为“数学”检查，尤其是如果通货膨胀率继续，利率保持升高，而中央银行除了重新打开货币打印机之外，还有几乎没有选择权。

This will be a high-stakes bet on macro forces.

这将是对宏观力量的高风险赌注。