Defi市场的复杂性和波动性的日益增长

以下是Intotheblock市场总监Vincent Maliepaard的来宾帖子和分析。

DeFi has matured into a complex web of lending markets, stablecoin ecosystems, and liquidity pools. While this growth comes with a broad range of opportunities, new forms of risk can emerge suddenly and require significant expertise to navigate effectively.

Defi已经成熟到一个复杂的贷款市场，Stablecoin生态系统和流动性池。尽管这种增长带有广泛的机会，但新的风险形式可能会突然出现，并且需要有效的专业知识才能有效地导航。

The Growing Complexity and Volatility of DeFi Markets

Defi市场的复杂性和波动性的日益增长

The DeFi market has grown significantly over the past years, and currently boasts around $88 billion in total value locked. However, the space is also fragmented, with hundreds of DeFi protocols across different chains, some with strong user bases and a good track record, and others with more novel designs. This complexity requires a well-thought out risk management framework that considers the most common economic risk in a variety of ways. To help put you in the right mindset, let’s consider a few major risk events that could occur:

在过去的几年中，Defi市场的发展幅度很大，目前拥有约880亿美元的总价值锁定。但是，该空间也被分散，具有数百种不同链条的Defi协议，有些具有强大的用户群和良好的记录，而另一些则具有更多新颖的设计。这种复杂性需要一个经过深思熟虑的风险管理框架，以各种方式考虑最常见的经济风险。为了帮助您置于正确的心态，让我们考虑可能发生的一些重大风险事件：

These examples show how quickly things can go wrong if you’re not on top of a wide range of risk metrics relevant to your positions. Sudden liquidity shortfalls, peg breaks, and mass liquidations highlight the need for continuous, in-depth risk monitoring. In fast-moving markets, timing is everything – by the time an average investor reacts to Twitter rumors or price charts, the damage might already be done.

这些示例表明，如果您不在与您的职位相关的广泛风险指标之上，则出问题了。突然的流动性短缺，PEG断裂和大规模清算突出了对连续，深入的风险监测的必要性。在快速发展的市场中，时机就是一切 - 到普通投资者对Twitter谣言或价格图表做出反应时，可能已经造成损失。

Spotting Risk Early in Aave

在AAVE早期发现风险

Aave, one of DeFi’s largest money markets, is a key protocol to watch when determining potential risks in the market. If you’re an institutional investor in DeFi, chances are high you’ve deployed capital in the protocol. But even if you’re not deploying into Aave, the protocol’s strong position could be important when watching out for potential risk events in the broader market. Let’s take a practical example of how you’d watch for risk on Aave.

艾夫（Aave）是最大的货币市场之一，是确定市场中潜在风险的关键协议。如果您是DEFI的机构投资者，那么在协议中部署了资本的机会很高。但是，即使您没有部署到AAVE，在关注更广泛的市场中潜在的风险事件时，协议的强大立场也可能很重要。让我们以一个实用的例子说明您如何在AAVE上关注风险。

High-Risk Loan alerts on Aave

AAVE上的高风险贷款警报

We can categorize each loan on Aave by a health factor (based on collateral vs. debt); when that health factor approaches 1.0 (the liquidation threshold), the loan is at high risk of being liquidated.

我们可以通过健康因素将每笔贷款分类为AAVE（基于抵押品与债务）；当该健康因素接近1.0（清算阈值）时，贷款面临着清算的高风险。

A sudden increase in high-risk loans can be the result of extreme price movements, causing the collateral in the loans to drop. When this is significant enough, it can force liquidations and even create cascading liquidations as mentioned before. Continuously monitoring the amount of high-risk loans is somewhat impractical, but nonetheless essential. Tools like IntoTheBlock’s risk Pulse can help spot these conditions automatically, as shown in the example below.

高风险贷款的突然增加可能是由于极端价格变动的结果，导致贷款的抵押品下降。当这足够重要的时候，它可以迫使清算，甚至会如前所述产生级联清算。不断监视高风险贷款的数量有些不切实际，但至关重要。如下示例所示，诸如Intotheblock的风险脉冲之类的工具可以自动发现这些条件。

Watching Liquidity Flows

观看流动性流动

Another key signal on Aave is large movements of assets into or out of the protocol. Peaks in liquidity flows, specifically in outlfows, can indicate risk conditions. For instance, a large withdrawal of WETH from Aave may suggest that a whale is pulling collateral, perhaps out of concern over market volatility or to deploy elsewhere.

AAVE上的另一个关键信号是大量资产转移到协议中。流动性流中的峰值，特别是在Outlfows中，可能表明风险条件。例如，韦斯（Weth）从AAVE中大量撤离可能表明，鲸鱼正在撤离抵押品，可能是出于对市场波动或部署在其他地方的关注。

This sudden outflow can tighten the available liquidity on Aave. If a lot of WETH is taken out, there’s less WETH liquidity to borrow, and utilization for remaining WETH might shoot up, driving interest rates higher.

这种突然的流出可以收紧AAVE上的可用流动性。如果取出了很多韦斯，借用的韦斯流动性就会减少，而保留韦斯的利用可能会射击，使利率更高。

Conversely, a surge of WETH deposits could temporarily boost Aave’s liquidity and signal that big players are gearing up to lend or provide collateral for borrowing.

相反，韦斯矿床的激增可能会暂时提高AAVE的流动性，并表明大玩家正在准备借给或提供借贷抵押品。

Both scenarios carry implications: a liquidity drop raises the risk of higher slippage or inability to withdraw for others, whereas a big influx might precede increased borrowing (and leverage in the system).

两种情况都具有含义：流动性下降会增加较高的滑倒或无法退出其他人的风险，而大量涌入可能会在增加借贷之前（以及系统中的杠杆作用）。

Curve: Depeg Alerts and Market Depth Changes for Stablecoin Pools

曲线：DEPEG警报和稳定池的市场深度变化

Another leading DeFi protocol is Curve. Curve is the backbone of stablecoin liquidity in DeFi, hosting pools where users trade and stake stablecoins and other pegged assets. By design, Curve pools are stable swap pools meant to hold assets at equal value, which makes any depeg event or imbalance immediately concerning. Risk monitoring on Curve focuses on peg stability and market depth: essentially, are the assets in the pool holding their expected value, and is there sufficient liquidity on each side of the pool?

另一个领先的DEFI协议是曲线。曲线是DEFI中Stablecoin流动性的骨干，是用户交易和股份Stablecoins和其他固定资产的池。根据设计，曲线池是稳定的掉期池，旨在将资产保持相等的价值，这使任何DEPEG事件或不平衡都立即引起。曲线上的风险监控重点是固定稳定性和市场深度：从本质上讲，池中的资产是否具有其预期价值，并且池的每一侧都有足够的流动性吗？

Depeg Risks

DEPEG风险

When a token in a Curve pool drifts from its intended peg, LPs are often the first to feel the impact. A small price deviation can quickly spiral into a pool imbalance — the depegged asset floods the pool as others exit, leaving LPs holding the riskier side.

当曲线池中的一个令牌从其预期的钉中漂移时，LPS通常是第一个感受到影响的人。价格偏离很小的偏差可能会迅速旋转到泳池不平衡 - 当其他人退出时，Depeggged Asset淹没了游泳池，使LPS保持风险更高。

Recent events like FDUSD’s depeg on April 2, 2025, highlight the importance of rapid detection. As redemptions hit and rumors spread, FDUSD-heavy Curve pools skewed sharply. LPs caught unaware faced mounting impermanent loss and poor exit liquidity.

最近的事件（例如2025年4月2日的FDUSD DEPEG）强调了快速检测的重要性。随着救赎和谣言的蔓延，FDUSD繁重的曲线池倾斜了。 LP抓住了面临的无常损失和出口流动性不佳。

Early alerts flagging the initial drift (e.g., FDUSD < $0.98) would have given LPs time to exit or hedge.

早期警报标记初始漂移（例如，FDUSD <$ 0.98）将为LPS提供时间退出或树篱。

And it’s not just fiat stables. Staked tokens like sdPENDLE have also shown dislocations in Curve. When these wrappers slip in price versus their underlying assets, their share in pools can balloon, a signal that LP risk is rising fast.

这不仅仅是菲亚特马s。像SDPENDLE这样的固定令牌也显示出曲线中的位错。当这些包装纸以价格与基本资产相比，它们在泳池中的份额是气泡，这表明LP风险正在快速上升。

Liquidity Depth as a Signal

流动性深度作为信号

Curve risk isn’t only about price, it’s

曲线风险不仅与价格有关