灰階萊特幣信託：Ticktock，儘管溢價重新評級，但仍是下一個區塊

距離我上次為 Seeking Alpha 報道 Grayscale Litecoin Trust (OTCQX:LTCN) 已經過了四個月。該信託是一種封閉式基金，主要為傳統市場投資者提供直接接觸萊特幣（LTC-USD）區塊鏈原生資產的機會。我毫不掩飾自己對萊特幣網路的喜愛。然而，儘管我總體上看好萊特幣，但我在兩次覆蓋該基金時都將 LTCN 稱為「持有」。四月初，我得出以下結論：

Four months have passed since my last coverage of the Grayscale Litecoin Trust (OTCQX:LTCN) for Seeking Alpha. This trust is a closed-end fund that primarily exists to provide traditional market investors with direct exposure to the native asset of the Litecoin (LTC-USD) blockchain. I've made no secret of my affinity for Litecoin as a network. However, despite my overall bullishness on Litecoin, I've called LTCN a "hold" each of the two times I covered the fund. In early April, I concluded with the following:

距離我上次為 Seeking Alpha 報道 Grayscale Litecoin Trust (OTCQX:LTCN) 已經過了四個月。該信託是一種封閉式基金，主要為傳統市場投資者提供直接接觸萊特幣（LTC-USD）區塊鏈原生資產的機會。我毫不掩飾我對萊特幣網路的熱愛。然而，儘管我總體看好萊特幣，但我在兩次覆蓋該基金時都將 LTCN 稱為「持有」。四月初，我得出以下結論：

At a $46.85 share price, LTCN is implying a $438 Litecoin price. I'd love a $438 LTC price as much as the next Litecoin bull, but LTCN's premium simply has no fundamental justification. This fund traded at an even larger premium about 3 years ago. That doesn't mean we'll see those NAV rate levels return this time around.

LTCN 的股價為 46.85 美元，這意味著萊特幣的價格為 438 美元。我和下一個萊特幣牛市一樣喜歡 438 美元的 LTC 價格，但 LTCN 的溢價根本沒有根本理由。大約三年前，該基金的交易溢價甚至更高。這並不意味著我們這次會看到淨值率水準恢復。

As it turns out, my last LTCN article was published on the day of the highest close for the fund since 2021:

事實證明，我的上一篇 LTCN 文章是在該基金自 2021 年以來最高收盤價當天發表的：

As you can see above, LTCN shares have collapsed by roughly 80% since then. This highlights the danger when playing the number go up game with crypto proxies via Grayscale.

正如您在上面所看到的，LTCN 股價自那時以來已經下跌了大約 80%。這凸顯了透過灰階使用加密代理玩數字上漲遊戲時的危險。

Silly NAV Rate Games, Silly NAV Rate PrizesAs of 8/7/24 close, the premium rate on LTCN shares was just 97.5%. You can see in the chart below that, while still overvalued based on NAV, the premium rate has collapsed from 400% back in April. To put this into proper context; each share of LTCN represents 0.085 LTC. So for a crypto investor who wants to value LTCN based on the Litecoin exposure that each share actually holds, they have to multiply the LTC per share by the price of LTC.

愚蠢的資產淨值率遊戲，愚蠢的資產淨值率獎品截至 2024 年 8 月 7 日收盤，LTCN 股票的溢價率僅為 97.5%。您可以在下面的圖表中看到，雖然基於資產淨值仍然被高估，但溢價率已從 4 月的 400% 大幅下跌。將其置於適當的上下文中；每股 LTCN 代表 0.085 LTC。因此，對於想要根據每股實際持有的萊特幣曝險來評估 LTCN 的加密貨幣投資者，他們必須將每股 LTC 乘以 LTC 的價格。

In this case, we multiply 0.085 by a Litecoin price of $56.26, and we get a net asset value per share of $4.79. In essence, LTCN longs are willing to pay $9.46 for $4.79 in underlying value. And, again, this is actually an improvement over what bulls were doing just a few months ago.

在這種情況下，我們將 0.085 乘以萊特幣價格 56.26 美元，以獲得每股資產淨值 4.79 美元。本質上，LTCN 多頭願意支付 9.46 美元來換取 4.79 美元的標的價值。而且，這實際上比幾個月前多頭的表現有所改善。

The good thing is, LTCN doesn't have much further to go before it gets to what I'd view as a more fair valuation. And beyond that, LTCN is by no means the worst example of speculative froth from Grayscale's single asset closed end funds. The Grayscale Filecoin Trust (OTCPK:FILG) still claims that honor at a premium to NAV of over 800%.

好消息是，LTCN 在達到我認為更公平的估值之前沒有太遠的路要走。除此之外，LTCN 絕不是灰階單一資產封閉式基金投機泡沫的最糟糕例子。 Grayscale Filecoin Trust (OTCPK:FILG) 仍聲稱兌現的溢價高於 NAV 超過 800%。

Private PlacementsOver the years, we've seen the NAV rates for Grayscale's closed end fund products deviate dramatically in both directions. During 'crypto winter,' most of these products traded at deep discounts to net asset value - often as low as 50-60% of NAV. These proved to be wonderful opportunities for patient bulls to play the arbitrage game. One of the major reasons these NAV rates have been able to get so extreme in both directions is because they aren't ETFs. Thus, the assets underlying the fund can't be redeemed at NAV as they could through the ETF wrapper.

私募多年來，我們看到灰階封閉式基金產品的淨值率在兩個方向上都存在巨大偏差。在「加密貨幣冬天」期間，大多數此類產品的交易價格均較淨值大幅折扣——通常低至資產淨值的 50-60%。事實證明，這些對於耐心的多頭來說是進行套利遊戲的絕佳機會。這些資產淨值率能夠在兩個方向上變得如此極端的主要原因之一是因為它們不是 ETF。因此，該基金的標的資產無法像透過 ETF 包裝器那樣以資產淨值贖回。

However, there is a mechanism for combating extreme premiums. Earlier this year, Grayscale re-opened private placements for the funds that were trading at large premiums to net asset value. Through private placements, accredited investors can buy new shares in the fund at NAV and wait through a one year lockup period to sell those newly issued shares on the secondary market. Private placers are essentially hoping the premiums stay high through their lockup expiration so they can buy at NAV, sell at a premium, and pocket the spread.

然而，有一種機制可以對抗極端保費。今年早些時候，灰度重新開放了對淨值大幅溢價交易的基金的私募。透過私募，合格投資者可以以資產淨值購買基金的新股，並等待一年的禁售期，然後在二級市場上出售這些新發行的股票。私募配售者本質上是希望溢價在禁售期滿後保持在高位，這樣他們就可以以資產淨值買入，溢價出售，並將價差收入囊中。

Source: Grayscale, Author's calculationsIn the table above, I'm showing the year to date change in shares outstanding for four of Grayscale's single asset crypto funds. Litecoin's year to date share growth has been just 25.9%. That might seem high, but compared to the aforementioned FileCoin fund, it's minimal. We can even see the Solana and Chainlink fund shares outstanding have doubled and tripled year to date. In my view, this is largely because those funds have had, and still have, dramatically higher NAV rate premiums than LTCN over the last several months. Thus, the post-lockup spread potential from private placement has been much more attractive in each of those funds.

資料來源：Grayscale，作者的計算在上表中，我顯示了 Grayscale 的四隻單一資產加密基金的已發行股票今年迄今的變化。萊特幣今年迄今的份額成長率僅為 25.9%。這可能看起來很高，但與前面提到的 FileCoin 基金相比，它是微不足道的。我們甚至可以看到 Solana 和 Chainlink 基金的流通股今年迄今增加了一倍和三倍。在我看來，這主要是因為過去幾個月這些基金的資產淨值溢價比 LTCN 高得多。因此，私募後的鎖定後利差潛力在這些基金中都更具吸引力。

LitecoinTo borrow a phrase from fans of a different cryptocurrency, it's largely been ticktock, next block for Litecoin despite the premium re-rating in LTCN. As far as utility goes, Litecoin is the only PoW coin that is even close to Bitcoin (BTC-USD) from a 30-day average active address standpoint:

萊特幣借用另一種加密貨幣粉絲的一句話來說，儘管 LTCN 的溢價重新評級，但萊特幣的下一個區塊在很大程度上仍處於「滴答作響」狀態。就效用而言，從 30 天平均活躍地址的角度來看，萊特幣是唯一一種甚至接近比特幣 (BTC-USD) 的 PoW 代幣：

As you can

盡你所能