灰度莱特币信托：Ticktock，尽管溢价重新评级，但仍是下一个区块

距离我上次为 Seeking Alpha 报道 Grayscale Litecoin Trust (OTCQX:LTCN) 已经过去四个月了。该信托是一种封闭式基金，主要为传统市场投资者提供直接接触莱特币（LTC-USD）区块链原生资产的机会。我毫不掩饰自己对莱特币网络的喜爱。然而，尽管我总体上看好莱特币，但我在两次覆盖该基金时都将 LTCN 称为“持有”。四月初，我得出以下结论：

Four months have passed since my last coverage of the Grayscale Litecoin Trust (OTCQX:LTCN) for Seeking Alpha. This trust is a closed-end fund that primarily exists to provide traditional market investors with direct exposure to the native asset of the Litecoin (LTC-USD) blockchain. I've made no secret of my affinity for Litecoin as a network. However, despite my overall bullishness on Litecoin, I've called LTCN a "hold" each of the two times I covered the fund. In early April, I concluded with the following:

距离我上次为 Seeking Alpha 报道 Grayscale Litecoin Trust (OTCQX:LTCN) 已经过去了四个月。该信托是一种封闭式基金，主要为传统市场投资者提供直接接触莱特币（LTC-USD）区块链原生资产的机会。我毫不掩饰我对莱特币网络的喜爱。然而，尽管我总体看好莱特币，但我在两次覆盖该基金时都将 LTCN 称为“持有”。四月初，我得出以下结论：

At a $46.85 share price, LTCN is implying a $438 Litecoin price. I'd love a $438 LTC price as much as the next Litecoin bull, but LTCN's premium simply has no fundamental justification. This fund traded at an even larger premium about 3 years ago. That doesn't mean we'll see those NAV rate levels return this time around.

LTCN 的股价为 46.85 美元，这意味着莱特币的价格为 438 美元。我和下一个莱特币牛市一样喜欢 438 美元的 LTC 价格，但 LTCN 的溢价根本没有根本理由。大约三年前，该基金的交易溢价甚至更高。这并不意味着我们这次会看到资产净值率水平恢复。

As it turns out, my last LTCN article was published on the day of the highest close for the fund since 2021:

事实证明，我的上一篇 LTCN 文章是在该基金自 2021 年以来最高收盘价当天发表的：

As you can see above, LTCN shares have collapsed by roughly 80% since then. This highlights the danger when playing the number go up game with crypto proxies via Grayscale.

正如您在上面所看到的，LTCN 股价自那时以来已经下跌了大约 80%。这凸显了通过灰度使用加密代理玩数字上涨游戏时的危险。

Silly NAV Rate Games, Silly NAV Rate PrizesAs of 8/7/24 close, the premium rate on LTCN shares was just 97.5%. You can see in the chart below that, while still overvalued based on NAV, the premium rate has collapsed from 400% back in April. To put this into proper context; each share of LTCN represents 0.085 LTC. So for a crypto investor who wants to value LTCN based on the Litecoin exposure that each share actually holds, they have to multiply the LTC per share by the price of LTC.

愚蠢的资产净值率游戏，愚蠢的资产净值率奖品截至 2024 年 8 月 7 日收盘，LTCN 股票的溢价率仅为 97.5%。您可以在下面的图表中看到，虽然基于资产净值仍然被高估，但溢价率已从 4 月份的 400% 大幅下跌。将其置于适当的上下文中；每股 LTCN 代表 0.085 LTC。因此，对于想要根据每股实际持有的莱特币敞口来评估 LTCN 的加密货币投资者，他们必须将每股 LTC 乘以 LTC 的价格。

In this case, we multiply 0.085 by a Litecoin price of $56.26, and we get a net asset value per share of $4.79. In essence, LTCN longs are willing to pay $9.46 for $4.79 in underlying value. And, again, this is actually an improvement over what bulls were doing just a few months ago.

在这种情况下，我们将 0.085 乘以莱特币价格 56.26 美元，得到每股资产净值 4.79 美元。本质上，LTCN 多头愿意支付 9.46 美元来换取 4.79 美元的标的价值。而且，这实际上比几个月前多头的表现有所改善。

The good thing is, LTCN doesn't have much further to go before it gets to what I'd view as a more fair valuation. And beyond that, LTCN is by no means the worst example of speculative froth from Grayscale's single asset closed end funds. The Grayscale Filecoin Trust (OTCPK:FILG) still claims that honor at a premium to NAV of over 800%.

好消息是，LTCN 在达到我认为更公平的估值之前没有太远的路要走。除此之外，LTCN 绝不是灰度单一资产封闭式基金投机泡沫的最糟糕例子。 Grayscale Filecoin Trust (OTCPK:FILG) 仍然声称兑现的溢价高于 NAV 超过 800%。

Private PlacementsOver the years, we've seen the NAV rates for Grayscale's closed end fund products deviate dramatically in both directions. During 'crypto winter,' most of these products traded at deep discounts to net asset value - often as low as 50-60% of NAV. These proved to be wonderful opportunities for patient bulls to play the arbitrage game. One of the major reasons these NAV rates have been able to get so extreme in both directions is because they aren't ETFs. Thus, the assets underlying the fund can't be redeemed at NAV as they could through the ETF wrapper.

私募多年来，我们看到灰度封闭式基金产品的资产净值率在两个方向上都存在巨大偏差。在“加密货币冬天”期间，大多数此类产品的交易价格均较资产净值大幅折扣——通常低至资产净值的 50-60%。事实证明，这些对于耐心的多头来说是进行套利游戏的绝佳机会。这些资产净值率能够在两个方向上变得如此极端的主要原因之一是因为它们不是 ETF。因此，该基金的标的资产无法像通过 ETF 包装器那样以资产净值赎回。

However, there is a mechanism for combating extreme premiums. Earlier this year, Grayscale re-opened private placements for the funds that were trading at large premiums to net asset value. Through private placements, accredited investors can buy new shares in the fund at NAV and wait through a one year lockup period to sell those newly issued shares on the secondary market. Private placers are essentially hoping the premiums stay high through their lockup expiration so they can buy at NAV, sell at a premium, and pocket the spread.

然而，有一种机制可以对抗极端保费。今年早些时候，灰度重新开放了对资产净值大幅溢价交易的基金的私募。通过私募，合格投资者可以按资产净值购买基金的新股，并等待一年的禁售期，然后在二级市场上出售这些新发行的股票。私募配售者本质上是希望溢价在禁售期满后保持在高位，这样他们就可以以资产净值买入，溢价出售，并将价差收入囊中。

Source: Grayscale, Author's calculationsIn the table above, I'm showing the year to date change in shares outstanding for four of Grayscale's single asset crypto funds. Litecoin's year to date share growth has been just 25.9%. That might seem high, but compared to the aforementioned FileCoin fund, it's minimal. We can even see the Solana and Chainlink fund shares outstanding have doubled and tripled year to date. In my view, this is largely because those funds have had, and still have, dramatically higher NAV rate premiums than LTCN over the last several months. Thus, the post-lockup spread potential from private placement has been much more attractive in each of those funds.

资料来源：Grayscale，作者的计算在上表中，我显示了 Grayscale 的四只单一资产加密基金的已发行股票今年迄今的变化。莱特币今年迄今为止的份额增长率仅为 25.9%。这可能看起来很高，但与前面提到的 FileCoin 基金相比，它是微乎其微的。我们甚至可以看到 Solana 和 Chainlink 基金的流通股今年迄今已增加了一倍和三倍。在我看来，这主要是因为过去几个月这些基金的资产净值溢价比 LTCN 高得多。因此，私募后的锁定后利差潜力在这些基金中都更具吸引力。

LitecoinTo borrow a phrase from fans of a different cryptocurrency, it's largely been ticktock, next block for Litecoin despite the premium re-rating in LTCN. As far as utility goes, Litecoin is the only PoW coin that is even close to Bitcoin (BTC-USD) from a 30-day average active address standpoint:

莱特币借用另一种加密货币粉丝的一句话来说，尽管 LTCN 的溢价重新评级，但莱特币的下一个区块在很大程度上仍处于“滴答作响”状态。就效用而言，从 30 天平均活跃地址的角度来看，莱特币是唯一一种甚至接近比特币 (BTC-USD) 的 PoW 代币：

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