美國政府想買價值 500 億美元的比特幣。這就是為什麼這是一個壞主意

美國累積 100 萬比特幣的提議聽起來像是書呆子最瘋狂的夢想，但這是一個擺在桌面上的實際想法。

A proposal to have the United States government purchase a million Bitcoin over the next five years has surfaced, aiming to create a “strategic bitcoin reserve.” The bill, introduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, would see the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department jointly acquire the cryptocurrency, which would then be held for at least 20 more years.

一項讓美國政府在未來五年內購買 100 萬比特幣的提案浮出水面，旨在創建「比特幣戰略儲備」。該法案由懷俄明州參議員辛西婭·盧米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 提出，聯準會和財政部將聯合收購這種加密貨幣，然後將其持有至少 20 年。

This move would essentially transform Bitcoin from a decentralized experiment into a federally endorsed hedge against a wide range of economic and financial risks. For those who hold Bitcoin, also known as “hodlers,” this bill is seen as a major win, as it would be the government's ultimate acknowledgment of Bitcoin's credibility as “freedom money.”

此舉將從本質上將比特幣從去中心化實驗轉變為聯邦政府認可的對沖各種經濟和金融風險的工具。對於那些持有比特幣的人（也稱為「hodlers」）來說，這項法案被視為重大勝利，因為這將是政府最終承認比特幣作為「自由貨幣」的可信度。

However, if you owned a stack of Bitcoin and suddenly the richest, most powerful country on the planet declared they’d be buying truckloads of it, you’d probably be popping champagne too.

然而，如果你擁有一堆比特幣，而地球上最富有、最強大的國家突然宣布他們將購買一卡車的比特幣，你可能也會開香檳。

But here’s the thing: Lummis’s bill raises more questions than answers. The plan sounds bold, sure, but where’s the money coming from? According to the proposal, the Federal Reserve’s surplus profits would fund these Bitcoin purchases.

但事情是這樣的：魯米斯的法案提出的問題多於答案。當然，這個計畫聽起來很大膽，但是錢從哪裡來呢？根據該提案，聯準會的盈餘利潤將為這些比特幣購買提供資金。

There’s just one tiny problem—the Fed doesn’t currently have surplus profits. No problem, right? Lummis suggests revaluing the Fed’s gold certificates to market prices and funneling the difference into Bitcoin. Creative? Yes. Impressive even. But plausible? We’ll see.

只有一個小問題——聯準會目前沒有超額利潤。沒問題吧？魯米斯建議根據市場價格重新評估聯準會的黃金憑證，並將差額轉入比特幣。有創造力的？是的。甚至令人印象深刻。但合理嗎？我們拭目以待。

Bitcoin’s appeal and its tricky reality

比特幣的吸引力及其棘手的現實

Imagine the US government holding 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply. That’s roughly one in every 20 Bitcoin in existence. The bill's preamble argues this would diversify US assets, strengthen resilience, and, in theory, position America at the top of the financial food chain.

想像美國政府持有比特幣總供應量的 5%。這大約相當於現存的每 20 個比特幣中就有一個。該法案的序言認為，這將使美國資產多元化，增強抵禦能力，並在理論上將美國置於金融食物鏈的頂端。

But those million Bitcoins can’t be touched until 2045. So in reality, the reserve isn’t really a reserve, it’s more like an expensive, long-term gamble.

但那百萬比特幣要到 2045 年才能動用。

Of course, we believe Bitcoin’s value will only keep rising over time. And we could be right. I say “could” because this is the most unpredictable market of all time.

當然，我們相信比特幣的價值只會隨著時間的推移而不斷上漲。我們可能是對的。我說「可以」是因為這是有史以​​來最無法預測的市場。

Though Bitcoin’s track record shows it’s more than just a speculative asset. Research published in the Journal of Empirical Finance revealed some interesting trends. Bitcoin is frequently used to move money offshore, especially through places like the Seychelles.

儘管比特幣的歷史記錄表明它不僅僅是一種投機資產。 《實證金融雜誌》上發表的研究揭示了一些有趣的趨勢。比特幣經常被用來將資金轉移到海外，特別是透過塞席爾等地。

It spiked in popularity during inflationary periods in Brazil and after sanctions in Venezuela. But here’s a reality check: its use plummeted in China after the country banned Bitcoin mining and trading. So while Bitcoin can act as money in specific scenarios, its utility is limited in countries with stable banking systems.

在巴西通膨時期和委內瑞拉製裁後，它的受歡迎程度飆升。但這裡有一個現實檢驗：在中國禁止比特幣開採和交易後，它在中國的使用量急劇下降。因此，雖然比特幣在特定情況下可以充當貨幣，但在銀行體系穩定的國家，其效用受到限制。

And let’s not forget crypto president Donald Trump. With his election, Lummis’s bill feels less like a pipe dream and more like a possibility, especially as the apex crypto is less than a percentage away from being worth $100,000.

我們不要忘記加密貨幣總統唐納德·特朗普。隨著 Lummis 的當選，他的法案感覺不再像一個白日夢，而更像是一種可能性，特別是因為頂級加密貨幣距離價值 10 萬美元只有不到一個百分比。

The dollar’s strength vs. Bitcoin’s pitch

美元的強勢與比特幣的宣傳

But before we ditch the dollar for digital gold, let’s get real about what’s kept the greenback going strong for over 50 years. It’s not backed by Bitcoin, gold, or any speculative asset.

但在我們放棄美元轉向數位黃金之前，讓我們先了解一下是什麼讓美元在 50 多年來保持堅挺。它沒有比特幣、黃金或任何投機資產的支持。

Its strength comes from federal insurance, decent (and frankly quite flawed) banking regulations, and global agreements to stabilize offshore dollars during financial freak-outs. We might roll our eyes at this, but history doesn’t lie. The dollar is built on systems that, while imperfect, work.

它的優勢來自於聯邦保險、體面的（坦白說是相當有缺陷的）銀行業監管，以及在金融危機期間穩定離岸美元的全球協議。我們可能會對此翻白眼，但歷史不會說謊。美元建立在雖然不完美但有效的系統上。

This is where Bitcoin hodlers make a common mistake. Admittedly, we look at inefficiencies in the traditional financial system and assume it’s doomed to collapse. But the dollar has survived wars, depressions, inflation crises, and everything in between.

這是比特幣持有者常犯的錯誤。誠然，我們看到傳統金融體系效率低下，並認為它注定要崩潰。但美元經歷了戰爭、蕭條、通貨膨脹危機以及介於兩者之間的一切。

A global financial apocalypse might make Bitcoin valuable, but betting on that is like planning for the end of the world with your retirement fund. Historically, bank money has always crawled out of the rubble, bruised but intact. It’s the nuclear cockroach of finance. That’s the bitter truth.

全球金融災難可能會讓比特幣變得有價值，但押注於此就像用退休基金規劃世界末日。從歷史上看，銀行的錢總是從廢墟中爬出來，雖然傷痕累累，但完好無損。這是金融界的核子蟑螂。這就是殘酷的事實。

A Bitcoin reserve would lock the US government into a massive policy conflict. If Congress ever wanted to limit Bitcoin mining or regulate trading, the Treasury’s own Bitcoin stash would lose value. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

比特幣儲備將使美國政府陷入大規模的政策衝突。如果國會想要限制比特幣開採或監管交易，財政部自己的比特幣儲備就會失去價值。談論搬石頭砸自己的腳。

Trump’s Treasury pick and crypto implications

川普的財政部選擇和加密貨幣影響

Enter Scott Bessent, Trump’s likely pick for Treasury Secretary. A seasoned hedge fund manager and an alleged lover of cryptos, Bessent also brings serious Wall Street clout to the table.

斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）登場，他是川普可能選擇的財政部長。貝森特是一位經驗豐富的對沖基金經理，據稱也是加密貨幣愛好者，他也為華爾街帶來了巨大的影響力。

He’s no stranger to risky bets, having served as chief investment officer for George Soros’s fund, which might raise eyebrows among conservatives, but Trump isn’t fazed. In his words, Bessent is “brilliant” and embodies the American Dream.

他對高風險的押注並不陌生，曾擔任喬治·索羅斯基金的首席投資官，這可能會引起保守派的不滿，但川普並不擔心。用他的話來說，貝森特“才華橫溢”，體現了美國夢。

As Treasury Secretary, Bessent would play the most critical role in shaping the country’s economic policies, including any plans involving Bitcoin. If Bessent backs Lummis’

身為財政部長，貝森特將在製定國家經濟政策（包括任何涉及比特幣的計畫）方面發揮最關鍵的作用。如果貝森特支持魯米斯