美国政府想要购买价值 500 亿美元的比特币。这就是为什么这是一个坏主意

美国积累 100 万比特币的提议听起来像是一个书呆子最疯狂的梦想，但这是一个摆在桌面上的实际想法。

A proposal to have the United States government purchase a million Bitcoin over the next five years has surfaced, aiming to create a “strategic bitcoin reserve.” The bill, introduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, would see the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department jointly acquire the cryptocurrency, which would then be held for at least 20 more years.

一项让美国政府在未来五年内购买 100 万比特币的提案浮出水面，旨在创建“比特币战略储备”。该法案由怀俄明州参议员辛西娅·卢米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 提出，美联储和财政部将联合收购这种加密货币，然后将其持有至少 20 年。

This move would essentially transform Bitcoin from a decentralized experiment into a federally endorsed hedge against a wide range of economic and financial risks. For those who hold Bitcoin, also known as “hodlers,” this bill is seen as a major win, as it would be the government's ultimate acknowledgment of Bitcoin's credibility as “freedom money.”

此举将从本质上将比特币从去中心化实验转变为联邦政府认可的对冲各种经济和金融风险的工具。对于那些持有比特币的人（也称为“hodlers”）来说，这项法案被视为一次重大胜利，因为这将是政府最终承认比特币作为“自由货币”的可信度。

However, if you owned a stack of Bitcoin and suddenly the richest, most powerful country on the planet declared they’d be buying truckloads of it, you’d probably be popping champagne too.

然而，如果你拥有一堆比特币，而地球上最富有、最强大的国家突然宣布他们将购买一卡车的比特币，你可能也会开香槟。

But here’s the thing: Lummis’s bill raises more questions than answers. The plan sounds bold, sure, but where’s the money coming from? According to the proposal, the Federal Reserve’s surplus profits would fund these Bitcoin purchases.

但事情是这样的：鲁米斯的法案提出的问题多于答案。当然，这个计划听起来很大胆，但是钱从哪里来呢？根据该提案，美联储的盈余利润将为这些比特币购买提供资金。

There’s just one tiny problem—the Fed doesn’t currently have surplus profits. No problem, right? Lummis suggests revaluing the Fed’s gold certificates to market prices and funneling the difference into Bitcoin. Creative? Yes. Impressive even. But plausible? We’ll see.

只有一个小问题——美联储目前没有超额利润。没问题吧？鲁米斯建议根据市场价格重新评估美联储的黄金凭证，并将差额转入比特币。有创造力的？是的。甚至令人印象深刻。但合理吗？我们拭目以待。

Bitcoin’s appeal and its tricky reality

比特币的吸引力及其棘手的现实

Imagine the US government holding 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply. That’s roughly one in every 20 Bitcoin in existence. The bill's preamble argues this would diversify US assets, strengthen resilience, and, in theory, position America at the top of the financial food chain.

想象一下美国政府持有比特币总供应量的 5%。这大约相当于现存的每 20 个比特币中就有一个。该法案的序言认为，这将使美国资产多元化，增强抵御能力，并在理论上将美国置于金融食物链的顶端。

But those million Bitcoins can’t be touched until 2045. So in reality, the reserve isn’t really a reserve, it’s more like an expensive, long-term gamble.

但那百万比特币要到 2045 年才能动用。所以实际上，储备并不是真正的储备，它更像是一场昂贵的长期赌博。

Of course, we believe Bitcoin’s value will only keep rising over time. And we could be right. I say “could” because this is the most unpredictable market of all time.

当然，我们相信比特币的价值只会随着时间的推移而不断上涨。我们可能是对的。我说“可以”是因为这是有史以来最不可预测的市场。

Though Bitcoin’s track record shows it’s more than just a speculative asset. Research published in the Journal of Empirical Finance revealed some interesting trends. Bitcoin is frequently used to move money offshore, especially through places like the Seychelles.

尽管比特币的历史记录表明它不仅仅是一种投机资产。 《实证金融杂志》上发表的研究揭示了一些有趣的趋势。比特币经常被用来将资金转移到海外，特别是通过塞舌尔等地。

It spiked in popularity during inflationary periods in Brazil and after sanctions in Venezuela. But here’s a reality check: its use plummeted in China after the country banned Bitcoin mining and trading. So while Bitcoin can act as money in specific scenarios, its utility is limited in countries with stable banking systems.

在巴西通货膨胀时期和委内瑞拉制裁后，它的受欢迎程度飙升。但这里有一个现实检验：在中国禁止比特币开采和交易后，它在中国的使用量急剧下降。因此，虽然比特币在特定情况下可以充当货币，但在银行系统稳定的国家，其效用受到限制。

And let’s not forget crypto president Donald Trump. With his election, Lummis’s bill feels less like a pipe dream and more like a possibility, especially as the apex crypto is less than a percentage away from being worth $100,000.

我们不要忘记加密货币总统唐纳德·特朗普。随着 Lummis 的当选，他的法案感觉不再像一个白日梦，而更像是一种可能性，特别是因为顶级加密货币距离价值 10 万美元只有不到一个百分比。

The dollar’s strength vs. Bitcoin’s pitch

美元的强势与比特币的宣传

But before we ditch the dollar for digital gold, let’s get real about what’s kept the greenback going strong for over 50 years. It’s not backed by Bitcoin, gold, or any speculative asset.

但在我们放弃美元转向数字黄金之前，让我们先了解一下是什么让美元在 50 多年来保持坚挺。它没有比特币、黄金或任何投机资产的支持。

Its strength comes from federal insurance, decent (and frankly quite flawed) banking regulations, and global agreements to stabilize offshore dollars during financial freak-outs. We might roll our eyes at this, but history doesn’t lie. The dollar is built on systems that, while imperfect, work.

它的优势来自于联邦保险、体面的（坦白说是相当有缺陷的）银行业监管，以及在金融危机期间稳定离岸美元的全球协议。我们可能会对此翻白眼，但历史不会说谎。美元建立在虽然不完美但有效的系统之上。

This is where Bitcoin hodlers make a common mistake. Admittedly, we look at inefficiencies in the traditional financial system and assume it’s doomed to collapse. But the dollar has survived wars, depressions, inflation crises, and everything in between.

这是比特币持有者常犯的错误。诚然，我们看到传统金融体系效率低下，并认为它注定要崩溃。但美元经历了战争、萧条、通货膨胀危机以及介于两者之间的一切。

A global financial apocalypse might make Bitcoin valuable, but betting on that is like planning for the end of the world with your retirement fund. Historically, bank money has always crawled out of the rubble, bruised but intact. It’s the nuclear cockroach of finance. That’s the bitter truth.

全球金融灾难可能会让比特币变得有价值，但押注于此就像用退休基金计划世界末日一样。从历史上看，银行的钱总是从废墟中爬出来，虽然伤痕累累，但完好无损。这是金融界的核蟑螂。这就是痛苦的事实。

A Bitcoin reserve would lock the US government into a massive policy conflict. If Congress ever wanted to limit Bitcoin mining or regulate trading, the Treasury’s own Bitcoin stash would lose value. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

比特币储备将使美国政府陷入大规模的政策冲突。如果国会想要限制比特币开采或监管交易，财政部自己的比特币储备就会失去价值。谈论搬起石头砸自己的脚。

Trump’s Treasury pick and crypto implications

特朗普的财政部选择和加密货币影响

Enter Scott Bessent, Trump’s likely pick for Treasury Secretary. A seasoned hedge fund manager and an alleged lover of cryptos, Bessent also brings serious Wall Street clout to the table.

斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）登场，他可能是特朗普提名的财政部长。贝森特是一位经验丰富的对冲基金经理，据称也是加密货币爱好者，他还为华尔街带来了巨大的影响力。

He’s no stranger to risky bets, having served as chief investment officer for George Soros’s fund, which might raise eyebrows among conservatives, but Trump isn’t fazed. In his words, Bessent is “brilliant” and embodies the American Dream.

他对高风险的押注并不陌生，曾担任乔治·索罗斯基金的首席投资官，这可能会引起保守派的不满，但特朗普并不担心。用他的话说，贝森特“才华横溢”，体现了美国梦。

As Treasury Secretary, Bessent would play the most critical role in shaping the country’s economic policies, including any plans involving Bitcoin. If Bessent backs Lummis’

作为财政部长，贝森特将在制定国家经济政策（包括任何涉及比特币的计划）方面发挥最关键的作用。如果贝森特支持鲁米斯