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不斷上升的地緣政治風險和即將到來的美國總統大選正推動投資者轉向黃金等傳統避險資產,而比特幣在中東衝突中面臨拋售壓力
Rising geopolitical tensions and the upcoming US presidential election are pushing investors towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold, while Bitcoin faces selling pressure amid Middle East conflicts.
不斷加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢和即將到來的美國總統大選正推動投資者轉向黃金等傳統避險資產,而比特幣則因中東衝突而面臨拋售壓力。
According to J.P. Morgan analysts, the increasing global tensions and November’s US election are amplifying what some investors refer to as the “debasement trade.” This trade favors both gold and bitcoin as hedges against currency devaluation. However, recent market movements show diverging paths for the two assets.
摩根大通分析師表示,日益加劇的全球緊張局勢和 11 月的美國大選正在加劇一些投資者所說的「貶值交易」。這種交易有利於黃金和比特幣作為對沖貨幣貶值的工具。然而,最近的市場走勢顯示這兩種資產的路徑不同。
“Rising geopolitical tensions and the coming US election are likely to reinforce what some investors call the ‘debasement trade’ thus favoring both gold and bitcoin,” analysts from J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy stated in a note on Thursday.
摩根大通全球市場策略分析師在周四的一份報告中表示:「不斷加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢和即將到來的美國大選可能會加劇一些投資者所說的'貶值交易',從而有利於黃金和比特幣。
Gold prices have seen a surge in recent weeks, approaching $2,700 per ounce on September 26. The analysts attribute this rise to a 4-5% decline in the dollar and a substantial drop in real US Treasury yields. Despite these factors, gold’s appreciation has exceeded what they alone would suggest, indicating renewed interest in the metal as a safe haven.
近幾週金價飆升,9月26日逼近每盎司2700美元。儘管存在這些因素,黃金的升值仍超出了它們本身所暗示的水平,表明人們重新對黃金作為避險資產產生了興趣。
Highlighting historical trends, CryptoQuant observed that lower US Treasury yields have coincided with rising gold prices. “In 2008, as the 13-week Treasury Bill yields decreased, gold prices soared from $590 to a peak of $1,900 per ounce by 2011,” the firm noted. “A similar trend is emerging now, with gold climbing from $2,000 to nearly $2,700.”
CryptoQuant 強調歷史趨勢,指出美國公債殖利率下降與金價上漲同時發生。該公司指出:“2008年,隨著13週期國庫券收益率下降,金價從每盎司590美元飆升至2011年每盎司1,900美元的峰值。” “現在也出現了類似的趨勢,金價從 2,000 美元攀升至近 2,700 美元。”
In contrast to gold's gains, Bitcoin encountered selling pressure amid escalating Middle East tensions. Following Iran’s missile attacks on Israel, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows, reversing an eight-day inflow streak as Bitcoin retreated below $62,000.
與黃金的上漲相反,比特幣在中東緊張局勢升級的情況下遭遇拋售壓力。伊朗對以色列發動飛彈攻擊後,美國現貨比特幣 ETF 經歷了大幅資金流出,隨著比特幣回落至 62,000 美元以下,扭轉了連續八天的資金流入趨勢。
According to data from Farside Investors, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was the only fund to see net inflows on Tuesday, taking in over $40 million. However, this was offset by outflows from other funds, resulting in over $242 million in net outflows across US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Farside Investors 的數據顯示,貝萊德旗下的 iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) 是周二唯一一隻出現淨流入的基金,資金流入超過 4,000 萬美元。然而,這被其他基金的流出所抵消,導緻美國現貨比特幣 ETF 的淨流出超過 2.42 億美元。
The contrasting movements of Bitcoin and gold have reignited discussions about Bitcoin's role as a safe-haven asset. As news of Iran’s missile strikes emerged, Bitcoin's value declined by over 3% in 24 hours, dropping nearly $4,000 to around $60,300. During the same period, gold prices rose by 1.4% to $2,665 per ounce, approaching a record high.
比特幣和黃金的對比走勢重新引發了關於比特幣作為避險資產角色的討論。隨著伊朗飛彈襲擊的消息傳出,比特幣的價值在 24 小時內下跌了 3% 以上,跌至近 4,000 美元,至 60,300 美元左右。同期金價上漲1.4%至每盎司2,665美元,逼近歷史新高。
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