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不断上升的地缘政治风险和即将到来的美国总统大选正推动投资者转向黄金等传统避险资产,而比特币在中东冲突中面临抛售压力
Rising geopolitical tensions and the upcoming US presidential election are pushing investors towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold, while Bitcoin faces selling pressure amid Middle East conflicts.
不断加剧的地缘政治紧张局势和即将到来的美国总统大选正推动投资者转向黄金等传统避险资产,而比特币则因中东冲突而面临抛售压力。
According to J.P. Morgan analysts, the increasing global tensions and November’s US election are amplifying what some investors refer to as the “debasement trade.” This trade favors both gold and bitcoin as hedges against currency devaluation. However, recent market movements show diverging paths for the two assets.
摩根大通分析师表示,日益加剧的全球紧张局势和 11 月的美国大选正在加剧一些投资者所说的“贬值交易”。这种交易有利于黄金和比特币作为对冲货币贬值的工具。然而,最近的市场走势显示这两种资产的路径不同。
“Rising geopolitical tensions and the coming US election are likely to reinforce what some investors call the ‘debasement trade’ thus favoring both gold and bitcoin,” analysts from J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy stated in a note on Thursday.
摩根大通全球市场策略分析师在周四的一份报告中表示:“不断加剧的地缘政治紧张局势和即将到来的美国大选可能会加剧一些投资者所说的‘贬值交易’,从而有利于黄金和比特币。”
Gold prices have seen a surge in recent weeks, approaching $2,700 per ounce on September 26. The analysts attribute this rise to a 4-5% decline in the dollar and a substantial drop in real US Treasury yields. Despite these factors, gold’s appreciation has exceeded what they alone would suggest, indicating renewed interest in the metal as a safe haven.
近几周金价飙升,9月26日逼近每盎司2700美元。分析师将金价上涨归因于美元贬值4-5%以及美国国债实际收益率大幅下降。尽管存在这些因素,黄金的升值仍超出了它们本身所暗示的水平,表明人们重新对黄金作为避险资产产生了兴趣。
Highlighting historical trends, CryptoQuant observed that lower US Treasury yields have coincided with rising gold prices. “In 2008, as the 13-week Treasury Bill yields decreased, gold prices soared from $590 to a peak of $1,900 per ounce by 2011,” the firm noted. “A similar trend is emerging now, with gold climbing from $2,000 to nearly $2,700.”
CryptoQuant 强调历史趋势,指出美国国债收益率下降与金价上涨同时发生。该公司指出:“2008年,随着13周期国库券收益率下降,金价从每盎司590美元飙升至2011年每盎司1,900美元的峰值。” “现在也出现了类似的趋势,金价从 2,000 美元攀升至近 2,700 美元。”
In contrast to gold's gains, Bitcoin encountered selling pressure amid escalating Middle East tensions. Following Iran’s missile attacks on Israel, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows, reversing an eight-day inflow streak as Bitcoin retreated below $62,000.
与黄金的上涨相反,比特币在中东紧张局势升级的情况下遭遇抛售压力。伊朗对以色列发动导弹袭击后,美国现货比特币 ETF 经历了大幅资金流出,随着比特币回落至 62,000 美元以下,扭转了连续八天的资金流入趋势。
According to data from Farside Investors, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was the only fund to see net inflows on Tuesday, taking in over $40 million. However, this was offset by outflows from other funds, resulting in over $242 million in net outflows across US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Farside Investors 的数据显示,贝莱德旗下的 iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) 是周二唯一一只出现净流入的基金,资金流入超过 4000 万美元。然而,这被其他基金的流出所抵消,导致美国现货比特币 ETF 的净流出超过 2.42 亿美元。
The contrasting movements of Bitcoin and gold have reignited discussions about Bitcoin's role as a safe-haven asset. As news of Iran’s missile strikes emerged, Bitcoin's value declined by over 3% in 24 hours, dropping nearly $4,000 to around $60,300. During the same period, gold prices rose by 1.4% to $2,665 per ounce, approaching a record high.
比特币和黄金的对比走势重新引发了关于比特币作为避险资产角色的讨论。随着伊朗导弹袭击的消息传出,比特币的价值在 24 小时内下跌了 3% 以上,跌至近 4,000 美元,至 60,300 美元左右。同期金价上涨1.4%至每盎司2665美元,逼近历史新高。
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