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摩根大通分析师表示,地缘政治紧张局势加剧和 11 月总统大选正在推动投资者转向黄金和比特币
J.P. Morgan analysts are observing a trend among some investors, known as the "debasement trade," which is driving them towards gold and bitcoin as safe-haven assets amid increasing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November.
摩根大通分析师正在观察一些投资者的一种趋势,即所谓的“贬值交易”,在地缘政治紧张局势加剧和即将于 11 月举行的美国总统大选之际,这种趋势促使他们转向黄金和比特币作为避险资产。
In a note on Thursday, J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy analysts Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Mika Inkinen, Mayur Yeole and Krutik P Mehta said that this preference for both gold and bitcoin is part of a broader strategy as some investors grow less confident in fiat currencies, particularly in some emerging markets.
摩根大通全球市场策略分析师 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou、Mika Inkinen、Mayur Yeole 和 Krutik P Mehta 在周四的一份报告中表示,这种对黄金和比特币的偏好是更广泛策略的一部分,因为一些投资者对法定货币的信心下降,尤其是在一些新兴市场。
"Rising geopolitical tensions and the coming U.S. election are likely to reinforce what some investors call the 'debasement trade' thus favoring both gold and bitcoin," the analysts wrote. "This preference for both assets is part of a broader strategy as some investors grow less confident in fiat currencies, particularly in some emerging markets."
分析师写道:“不断加剧的地缘政治紧张局势和即将到来的美国大选可能会加剧一些投资者所说的‘贬值交易’,从而有利于黄金和比特币。” “这种对这两种资产的偏好是更广泛战略的一部分,因为一些投资者对法定货币信心下降,特别是在一些新兴市场。”
While gold initially showed a muted response to recent geopolitical events, its price has risen sharply over the past quarter, reaching the $2,700 level on Sept. 26, they added. This increase is influenced by a 4-5% decline in the dollar and a significant drop in real U.S. Treasury yields by 50-80 basis points. However, the analysts noted that the appreciation of gold exceeds what these factors alone would suggest, indicating a re-emergence of the ‘debasement trade.’
他们补充说,虽然黄金最初对最近的地缘政治事件反应不大,但其价格在过去一个季度大幅上涨,于 9 月 26 日达到 2,700 美元的水平。这一增长受到美元贬值4-5%以及美国国债实际收益率大幅下降50-80个基点的影响。然而,分析师指出,黄金的升值超出了这些因素本身所暗示的范围,表明“贬值贸易”重新出现。
A recent CryptoQuant post on X also highlighted historical trends where lower U.S. Treasury yields led to rising gold prices. "In 2008, as the 13-week Treasury Bill yields decreased, gold prices soared from $590 to a peak of $1,900 per ounce by 2011," the post said. "A similar trend is emerging now, with gold climbing from $2,000 to nearly $2,700. Bitcoin ( BTC ) BTC, -1.07% , often seen as 'digital gold,' may follow this pattern."
最近在 X 上发表的 CryptoQuant 帖子也强调了美国国债收益率下降导致金价上涨的历史趋势。帖子称:“2008年,随着13周期国库券收益率下降,金价从每盎司590美元飙升至2011年每盎司1900美元的峰值。” “类似的趋势现在正在出现,金价从 2,000 美元攀升至近 2,700 美元。比特币 (BTC) BTC,-1.07%,通常被视为‘数字黄金’,可能会遵循这种模式。”
However, CryptoQuant analyst J.A. Maartuun told The Block that despite the current declining yields and expanding M2 Money Supply, "gold is already profiting from these circumstances, while bitcoin isn't, resulting in a current negative correlation between bitcoin and gold."
然而,CryptoQuant 分析师 JA Maartuun 告诉 The Block,尽管目前收益率下降且 M2 货币供应量不断扩大,但“黄金已经从这些情况中获利,而比特币则不然,导致比特币和黄金之间目前呈负相关。”
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