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CFTC 和 Kalshi 之间持续的法律纠纷正在加剧,但监管机构并不有利。
The upcoming U.S. presidential election is a hot topic in the financial industry, with a surge in activity on prediction markets. These platforms allow users to place bets on various aspects of the election, such as who will win or the likelihood of certain policies being implemented.
即将到来的美国总统大选是金融界的热门话题,预测市场的活动激增。这些平台允许用户对选举的各个方面进行投注,例如谁会获胜或实施某些政策的可能性。
However, the increasing activity on prediction markets has also attracted the attention of regulators, particularly the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The commission has been attempting to shut down ongoing bets related to the upcoming election, but its efforts have faced legal challenges.
然而,预测市场日益活跃也引起了监管机构的关注,特别是美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)。该委员会一直试图阻止与即将到来的选举相关的持续押注,但其努力面临着法律挑战。
Court Rejects CFTC’s Bid to Shut Kalshi
法院驳回 CFTC 关闭 Kalshi 的请求
In the latest development, a U.S. appeals court has rejected the CFTC's request to halt operations of prediction platform Kalshi, which is offering derivatives wagering on the November U.S. presidential election.
最新进展中,美国一家上诉法院驳回了 CFTC 停止预测平台 Kalshi 运营的请求,该平台正在提供针对 11 月美国总统大选的衍生品投注服务。
On Wednesday, Oct. 3, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit dismissed the CFTC's application for a stay order, which sought to block Kalshi from continuing to offer these bets.
10 月 3 日星期三,美国哥伦比亚特区巡回上诉法院驳回了 CFTC 的中止令申请,该申请旨在阻止 Kalshi 继续提供这些赌注。
This ruling comes after the commission filed for an “emergency stay order” on Sept. 6, following a loss in its long-running battle against Kalshi over the legality of its election wagering derivatives.
这项裁决是在该委员会于 9 月 6 日提交“紧急中止令”之后作出的,此前该委员会在与 Kalshi 就其选举投注衍生品的合法性问题进行的长期斗争中失败。
According to the appeals court, the CFTC failed to provide sufficient evidence to support its claims for the stay order request. The commission did not demonstrate that “irreparable harm” would occur if Kalshi were to continue its operations, the court stated.
上诉法院称,CFTC 未能提供足够的证据来支持其中止令请求的主张。法院表示,该委员会并未证明,如果卡尔希继续运营,将会造成“无法弥补的损害”。
The commission's concerns about potential market manipulation and the integrity of the electoral process were deemed largely speculative and insufficient to justify its request, according to the court.
法院表示,该委员会对潜在市场操纵和选举程序完整性的担忧在很大程度上被认为是推测性的,不足以证明其要求的合理性。
Despite the setback, the court's ruling leaves the door open for the CFTC to re-file its application if substantial evidence does emerge. This suggests that the commission may make another attempt to shut down Kalshi's election wagering derivatives, especially as it continues to ramp up its scrutiny of prediction markets.
尽管遭遇挫折,但法院的裁决为商品期货交易委员会在确实出现实质性证据时重新提交申请敞开了大门。这表明该委员会可能会再次尝试关闭卡尔希的选举投注衍生品,特别是在它继续加强对预测市场的审查的情况下。
CFTC Ramps Up Scrutiny of Prediction Platforms
CFTC 加强对预测平台的审查
In a recent interview, CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam highlighted the commission's intention to crack down on prediction markets that violate regulations, mentioning Kalshi and decentralized prediction platform Polymarkets by name.
在最近的一次采访中,CFTC 主席 Rostin Behnam 强调了该委员会打击违规预测市场的意图,并提到了 Kalshi 和去中心化预测平台 Polymarkets 的名字。
According to Behnam, several risks are involved with unregulated prediction markets, and he stated that they could influence voter behavior, potentially impacting democratic processes.
贝纳姆表示,不受监管的预测市场涉及多种风险,他表示这些风险可能会影响选民的行为,从而可能影响民主进程。
The commission has asserted that the Commodity Exchange Act prohibits contracts tied to certain sensitive topics and that it's prepared to use its authority to crack down on platforms that enable such contracts.
该委员会声称,《商品交易法》禁止与某些敏感主题相关的合同,并准备利用其权力打击支持此类合同的平台。
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