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摩根大通分析師表示,地緣政治緊張局勢加劇和 11 月總統大選正在推動投資者轉向黃金和比特幣
J.P. Morgan analysts are observing a trend among some investors, known as the "debasement trade," which is driving them towards gold and bitcoin as safe-haven assets amid increasing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November.
摩根大通分析師正在觀察一些投資者的一種趨勢,即所謂的“貶值交易”,在地緣政治緊張局勢加劇和即將於11 月舉行的美國總統大選之際,這種趨勢促使他們轉向黃金和比特幣作為避險資產。
In a note on Thursday, J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy analysts Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Mika Inkinen, Mayur Yeole and Krutik P Mehta said that this preference for both gold and bitcoin is part of a broader strategy as some investors grow less confident in fiat currencies, particularly in some emerging markets.
摩根大通全球市場策略分析師Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou、Mika Inkinen、Mayur Yeole 和Krutik P Mehta 在周四的報告中表示,這種對黃金和比特幣的偏好是更廣泛策略的一部分,因為一些投資者對法定貨幣的信心下降,尤其是在一些新興市場。
"Rising geopolitical tensions and the coming U.S. election are likely to reinforce what some investors call the 'debasement trade' thus favoring both gold and bitcoin," the analysts wrote. "This preference for both assets is part of a broader strategy as some investors grow less confident in fiat currencies, particularly in some emerging markets."
分析師寫道:“不斷加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢和即將到來的美國大選可能會加劇一些投資者所說的‘貶值交易’,從而有利於黃金和比特幣。” “這種對這兩種資產的偏好是更廣泛策略的一部分,因為一些投資者對法定貨幣信心下降,特別是在一些新興市場。”
While gold initially showed a muted response to recent geopolitical events, its price has risen sharply over the past quarter, reaching the $2,700 level on Sept. 26, they added. This increase is influenced by a 4-5% decline in the dollar and a significant drop in real U.S. Treasury yields by 50-80 basis points. However, the analysts noted that the appreciation of gold exceeds what these factors alone would suggest, indicating a re-emergence of the ‘debasement trade.’
他們補充說,雖然黃金最初對最近的地緣政治事件反應不大,但其價格在過去一個季度大幅上漲,並於 9 月 26 日達到 2,700 美元的水平。這一增長受到美元貶值4-5%以及美國公債實際收益率大幅下降50-80個基點的影響。然而,分析師指出,黃金的升值超出了這些因素本身所暗示的範圍,顯示「貶值貿易」重新出現。
A recent CryptoQuant post on X also highlighted historical trends where lower U.S. Treasury yields led to rising gold prices. "In 2008, as the 13-week Treasury Bill yields decreased, gold prices soared from $590 to a peak of $1,900 per ounce by 2011," the post said. "A similar trend is emerging now, with gold climbing from $2,000 to nearly $2,700. Bitcoin ( BTC ) BTC, -1.07% , often seen as 'digital gold,' may follow this pattern."
最近在 X 上發表的 CryptoQuant 貼文也強調了美國公債殖利率下降導致金價上漲的歷史趨勢。貼文寫道:“2008年,隨著13週期國庫券收益率下降,金價從每盎司590美元飆升至2011年每盎司1900美元的峰值。” 「類似的趨勢現在正在出現,金價從 2,000 美元攀升至近 2,700 美元。比特幣 (BTC) BTC,-1.07%,通常被視為‘數字黃金’,可能會遵循這種模式。”
However, CryptoQuant analyst J.A. Maartuun told The Block that despite the current declining yields and expanding M2 Money Supply, "gold is already profiting from these circumstances, while bitcoin isn't, resulting in a current negative correlation between bitcoin and gold."
然而,CryptoQuant 分析師JA Maartuun 告訴The Block,儘管目前收益率下降且M2 貨幣供應量不斷擴大,但「黃金已經從這些情況中獲利,而比特幣則不然,導致比特幣和黃金之間目前呈負相關。
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