德國DAX指數邁入2025年 瞄準20,000點里程碑

德國首要股指 DAX 40 進入 2025 年，重新聚焦 20,000 點這一關鍵里程碑。

After closing above the 20,000-point mark for the first time in nearly three weeks on Thursday, Germany’s DAX stock index hovered just above this critical level on Friday morning.

德國DAX股指周四近三週來首次收於20,000點大關之上，週五上午徘徊在這一關鍵水平上方。

The DAX had slipped marginally by mid-morning Friday, down 0.1% to 20,006.13 points. The MDAX, which tracks medium-sized German companies, dipped 0.24% to 25,656.33 points, while the broader EuroStoxx 50 index declined by 0.2%, reflecting cautious sentiment across European markets.

截至週五上午，DAX 指數小幅下滑，下跌 0.1%，至 20,006.13 點。追蹤德國中型企業的 MDAX 指數下跌 0.24%，至 25,656.33 點，而更廣泛的 EuroStoxx 50 指數下跌 0.2%，反映出整個歐洲市場的謹慎情緒。

The DAX recently pushed above 20,000, but it struggled to attract the buying momentum needed to decisively hold this psychological barrier.

DAX 最近突破 20,000 點，但它難以吸引堅決守住這一心理關卡所需的買盤動力。

“The DAX continues to search in vain for convinced buyers to push the index back above the 20,000 mark,” said Jochen Stanzl, an analyst at CMC Markets.

CMC Markets 分析師 Jochen Stanzl 表示：“DAX 繼續徒勞地尋找有信心的買家，將指數推回到 20,000 點大關之上。”

Several factors are shaping investor sentiment as the market enters the second trading day of 2025.

隨著市場進入 2025 年的第二個交易日，有幾個因素正在影響投資者的情緒。

- Uncertainty Ahead of Trump’s Inauguration: The upcoming January 20 inauguration of Donald Trump as U.S. President is a key event on the horizon for global markets. Investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach in light of Trump’s pro-tariff stance on European goods and his administration’s potential influence on Federal Reserve policies.

- 川普就職典禮之前的不確定性：即將於 1 月 20 日舉行的唐納德·川普就任美國總統是全球市場即將發生的重大事件。鑑於川普對歐洲商品的關稅支持立場及其政府對聯準會政策的潛在影響，投資者正在採取觀望態度。

- Economic Challenges at Home and Abroad: Domestically, German manufacturing is under pressure, with weak PMI data pointing to declining demand. At the same time, global concerns, including China’s economic slowdown, continue to cast a shadow over export-heavy sectors such as autos and industrials.

- 國內外經濟挑戰：國內方面，德國製造業面臨壓力，疲軟的PMI數據顯示需求下降。與此同時，包括中國經濟放緩在內的全球擔憂繼續為汽車和工業等出口密集型產業蒙上陰影。

- ECB and Eurozone Factors: The European Central Bank (ECB) is under scrutiny as weaker economic data bolsters the case for dovish monetary policies. However, the euro’s recent weakness against the dollar could lend a competitive edge to German exporters, providing some optimism for DAX-listed companies.

- 歐洲央行和歐元區因素：由於疲軟的經濟數據支持鴿派貨幣政策，歐洲央行（ECB）受到密切關注。然而，歐元兌美元最近的疲軟可能會給德國出口商帶來競爭優勢，為 DAX 上市公司帶來一些樂觀情緒。

The 20,000-point mark remains a critical technical level for the DAX. A sustained move above this level could signal bullish momentum, potentially paving the way toward the record high of 20,523 points. Conversely, a drop below 19,750 points may trigger selling pressure, with stronger support anticipated at 19,657 points, a key confluence zone with the 50-day EMA.

20,000 點大關仍然是 DAX 指數的關鍵技術水準。持續突破這一水平可能預示著看漲勢頭，可能為邁向歷史高點 20,523 點鋪平道路。相反，跌破19,750點可能會引發拋售壓力，預計更強支撐位於19,657點，這是與50日均線的關鍵匯合區。

European equities largely mirrored the DAX’s cautious tone on Friday morning. The EuroStoxx 50 saw slight losses, reflecting broader concerns about geopolitical risks and sluggish economic growth. The MDAX also declined as medium-sized German companies are particularly sensitive to global trade uncertainties.

歐洲股市在很大程度上反映了德國DAX指數週五上午的謹慎基調。歐洲斯托克 50 指數小幅下跌，反映出對地緣政治風險和經濟成長疲軟的更廣泛擔憂。 MDAX 也下跌，因為德國中型企業對全球貿易的不確定性特別敏感。

As the DAX navigates this delicate period, its ability to maintain momentum above 20,000 will depend heavily on upcoming political developments, global economic trends, and central bank policy signals. Investors remain on edge, bracing for potential market-shaking announcements in the weeks ahead.

在這個微妙時期，DAX 指數能否維持在 20,000 點以上的勢頭將在很大程度上取決於即將到來的政治事態發展、全球經濟趨勢和央行政策訊號。投資者仍處於緊張狀態，準備迎接未來幾週可能出現的震撼市場的公告。