德国DAX指数迈入2025年 瞄准20,000点里程碑

德国首要股指 DAX 40 进入 2025 年，重新聚焦 20,000 点这一关键里程碑。

After closing above the 20,000-point mark for the first time in nearly three weeks on Thursday, Germany’s DAX stock index hovered just above this critical level on Friday morning.

德国DAX股指周四近三周来首次收于20,000点大关之上，周五上午徘徊在这一关键水平上方。

The DAX had slipped marginally by mid-morning Friday, down 0.1% to 20,006.13 points. The MDAX, which tracks medium-sized German companies, dipped 0.24% to 25,656.33 points, while the broader EuroStoxx 50 index declined by 0.2%, reflecting cautious sentiment across European markets.

截至周五上午，DAX 指数小幅下滑，下跌 0.1%，至 20,006.13 点。追踪德国中型企业的 MDAX 指数下跌 0.24%，至 25,656.33 点，而更广泛的 EuroStoxx 50 指数下跌 0.2%，反映出整个欧洲市场的谨慎情绪。

The DAX recently pushed above 20,000, but it struggled to attract the buying momentum needed to decisively hold this psychological barrier.

DAX 最近突破 20,000 点，但它难以吸引坚决守住这一心理关口所需的买盘动力。

“The DAX continues to search in vain for convinced buyers to push the index back above the 20,000 mark,” said Jochen Stanzl, an analyst at CMC Markets.

CMC Markets 分析师 Jochen Stanzl 表示：“DAX 继续徒劳地寻找有信心的买家，将指数推回到 20,000 点大关之上。”

Several factors are shaping investor sentiment as the market enters the second trading day of 2025.

随着市场进入 2025 年的第二个交易日，有几个因素正在影响投资者的情绪。

- Uncertainty Ahead of Trump’s Inauguration: The upcoming January 20 inauguration of Donald Trump as U.S. President is a key event on the horizon for global markets. Investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach in light of Trump’s pro-tariff stance on European goods and his administration’s potential influence on Federal Reserve policies.

- 特朗普就职典礼之前的不确定性：即将于 1 月 20 日举行的唐纳德·特朗普就任美国总统是全球市场即将发生的重大事件。鉴于特朗普对欧洲商品的关税支持立场及其政府对美联储政策的潜在影响，投资者正在采取观望态度。

- Economic Challenges at Home and Abroad: Domestically, German manufacturing is under pressure, with weak PMI data pointing to declining demand. At the same time, global concerns, including China’s economic slowdown, continue to cast a shadow over export-heavy sectors such as autos and industrials.

- 国内外经济挑战：国内方面，德国制造业面临压力，疲软的PMI数据表明需求下降。与此同时，包括中国经济放缓在内的全球担忧继续给汽车和工业等出口密集型行业蒙上阴影。

- ECB and Eurozone Factors: The European Central Bank (ECB) is under scrutiny as weaker economic data bolsters the case for dovish monetary policies. However, the euro’s recent weakness against the dollar could lend a competitive edge to German exporters, providing some optimism for DAX-listed companies.

- 欧洲央行和欧元区因素：由于疲软的经济数据支持鸽派货币政策，欧洲央行（ECB）受到密切关注。然而，欧元兑美元最近的疲软可能会给德国出口商带来竞争优势，从而为 DAX 上市公司带来一些乐观情绪。

The 20,000-point mark remains a critical technical level for the DAX. A sustained move above this level could signal bullish momentum, potentially paving the way toward the record high of 20,523 points. Conversely, a drop below 19,750 points may trigger selling pressure, with stronger support anticipated at 19,657 points, a key confluence zone with the 50-day EMA.

20,000 点大关仍然是 DAX 指数的关键技术水平。持续突破这一水平可能预示着看涨势头，可能为迈向历史高点 20,523 点铺平道路。相反，跌破19,750点可能会引发抛售压力，预计更强支撑位于19,657点，这是与50日均线的关键汇合区。

European equities largely mirrored the DAX’s cautious tone on Friday morning. The EuroStoxx 50 saw slight losses, reflecting broader concerns about geopolitical risks and sluggish economic growth. The MDAX also declined as medium-sized German companies are particularly sensitive to global trade uncertainties.

欧洲股市在很大程度上反映了德国DAX指数周五上午的谨慎基调。欧洲斯托克 50 指数小幅下跌，反映出对地缘政治风险和经济增长疲软的更广泛担忧。 MDAX 也下跌，因为德国中型企业对全球贸易的不确定性特别敏感。

As the DAX navigates this delicate period, its ability to maintain momentum above 20,000 will depend heavily on upcoming political developments, global economic trends, and central bank policy signals. Investors remain on edge, bracing for potential market-shaking announcements in the weeks ahead.

在这个微妙时期，DAX 指数能否维持在 20,000 点以上的势头将在很大程度上取决于即将到来的政治事态发展、全球经济趋势和央行政策信号。投资者仍处于紧张状态，准备迎接未来几周可能出现的震撼市场的公告。