聯準會主席鮑威爾傾向於潛在降息

隨著美國經濟進入第四季度，鮑威爾和其他聯準會官員正在重新評估他們在保護勞動力市場的同時管理通膨壓力的方法。

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is leaning towards a potential interest rate cut, bolstered by recent data indicating a slowdown in inflation.

近期數據顯示通膨放緩，聯準會主席鮑威爾傾向於可能降息。

As the U.S. economy enters the fourth quarter, Powell and other Fed officials are reassessing their approach to managing inflationary pressures while safeguarding the labor market. 

隨著美國經濟進入第四季度，鮑威爾和其他聯準會官員正在重新評估他們在保護勞動力市場的同時管理通膨壓力的方法。

The most recent consumer price index (CPI) data, showing a minimal 0.1% rise in September, has given Powell the confidence to consider easing rates. This would be the smallest CPI increase in three months, signaling that price stability may be within reach.

最新的消費者物價指數（CPI）數據顯示 9 月最低上漲 0.1%，這讓鮑威爾有信心考慮放寬利率。這將是三個月來最小的 CPI 漲幅，表明價格穩定可能指日可待。

CPI and Core Inflation Trends

CPI 和核心通膨趨勢

The latest inflation data is a critical marker for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. The September CPI’s 0.1% rise marks a notable slowdown from previous months. On a yearly basis, the CPI is expected to show a 2.3% increase, the lowest annual pace since early 2021. This trend aligns with the Fed’s long-term goal of maintaining price stability.

最新的通膨數據是聯準會貨幣政策決策的關鍵指標。 9 月 CPI 上漲 0.1%，較前幾個月明顯放緩。以年計算，CPI 預計將上漲 2.3%，為 2021 年初以來的最低年度漲幅。

In addition to the headline CPI, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, provides a clearer picture of underlying inflationary pressures. Core CPI is projected to have risen by 0.2% in September, contributing to a 3.2% annual increase. 

除了整體消費者物價指數之外，核心通膨（不包括波動較大的食品和能源價格）可以更清楚地反映潛在的通膨壓力。預計 9 月核心 CPI 將上漲 0.2%，年率上漲 3.2%。

While core inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, the slower growth suggests that inflationary pressures are easing. This data reassures Powell that inflation is gradually cooling down, potentially paving the way for a quarter-point rate cut in the Fed’s upcoming November meeting.

儘管核心通膨仍高於聯準會2%的目標，但成長放緩顯示通膨壓力正在緩解。這項數據讓鮑威爾放心，通膨正在逐漸降溫，可能為聯準會即將舉行的 11 月會議降息 25 個基點鋪平道路。

Employment and Producer Price Data Complicate Decision

就業和生產者價格數據使決策變得複雜

While inflation is trending in the right direction, Powell faces another challenge in the form of a stronger-than-expected September jobs report. A resilient labor market is pushing wage growth, which could sustain upward inflation pressure. 

雖然通膨正朝著正確的方向發展，但鮑威爾面臨另一個挑戰，即強於預期的 9 月就業報告。富有彈性的勞動力市場正在推動薪資成長，這可能會維持通膨上行壓力。

Although job growth traditionally raises concerns about rising inflation, Powell has indicated that the current data offers the Fed some breathing room. The balance between slowing inflation and a tight labor market will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s next steps.

儘管就業成長傳統上會引發人們對通膨上升的擔憂，但鮑威爾表示，目前的數據為聯準會提供了一些喘息的空間。通膨放緩與勞動市場吃緊之間的平衡對於決定聯準會下一步行動至關重要。

Powell’s cautious optimism is further supported by the expectation of a lower producer price index (PPI), which measures the cost pressures faced by businesses. A slower PPI growth rate could ease business expenses, potentially contributing to a more favorable inflation outlook.

生產者物價指數（PPI）下降的預期進一步支撐了鮑威爾的謹慎樂觀態度，該指數衡量企業面臨的成本壓力。 PPI 成長放緩可能會緩解企業支出，從而有可能帶來更有利的通膨前景。

Global Central Banks Move Towards Rate Cuts

全球央行邁向降息

As Powell navigates these economic dynamics, other central banks worldwide are cutting interest rates. In Asia, New Zealand and South Korea are expected to announce rate reductions this week in response to cooling inflation and weaker labor markets. New Zealand’s central bank is projected to reduce rates by half a percentage point, while the Bank of Korea will likely make a quarter-point cut.

當鮑威爾駕馭這些經濟動態時，全球其他央行正在降息。在亞洲，紐西蘭和韓國預計本周宣布降息，以應對通膨降溫和勞動市場疲軟。紐西蘭央行預計將降息半個百分點，而韓國央行可能會降息四分之一個百分點。

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also signaling a potential rate cut. Manufacturing struggles, particularly in Germany, and broader economic challenges have increased pressure on the ECB to ease rates. Similarly, the Bank of England is considering more aggressive rate cuts, with upcoming GDP data likely influencing their decision.

在歐洲，歐洲央行（ECB）也發出可能降息的訊號。製造業的困境（尤其是德國）以及更廣泛的經濟挑戰加大了歐洲央行放鬆利率的壓力。同樣，英國央行正在考慮更激進的降息，即將公佈的 GDP 數據可能會影響他們的決定。

Outlook for U.S. Inflation

美國通膨前景

According to May 2021 data, the economists also expect the U.S. inflation to decline further in the coming months. Core PCE, another inflation measure favored by the Bloomberg analysts is expected to converge with the Fed’s 2 % goal.

根據2021年5月的數據，經濟學家也預期未來幾個月美國通膨將進一步下降。彭博分析師青睞的另一項通膨指標核心個人消費支出預計將與聯準會 2% 的目標趨同。

The ‘‘modest’’ inflation expectations are also consistent with the growing FSF [Fed’s Summary of Financial Operations] and M2 [money supply] emphasizing that Price Stability is fading in the near future which makes the rate cut probable.

「溫和」的通膨預期也與不斷增長的 FSF（聯準會金融運作摘要）和 M2（貨幣供應量）一致，強調價格穩定性在不久的將來正在減弱，這使得降息成為可能。

When Powell and his team are meeting in November they will balance these inflation signals against the labor market and business cost data. It should lay down the groundwork for the expected US monetary policy in advance of the 2024 elections, with the Fed remaining slightly bullish on inflation.

當鮑威爾和他的團隊在 11 月開會時，他們將平衡這些通膨訊號與勞動力市場和商業成本數據。它應該為 2024 年大選之前的預期美國貨幣政策奠定基礎，聯準會仍對通膨略顯看好。

Victor Muriki

維克多·穆里基

Editor

編輯

Victor Muriki is an esteemed writer focused on cryptocurrency and finance, holding a Bachelor`s in Actuarial Science.

Victor Muriki 是一位受人尊敬的作家，專注於加密貨幣和金融領域，擁有精算學士學位。

Michelle Abigail

米歇爾·阿比蓋爾

Editor

編輯

Michelle Abigail is an optimist who believes nothing is impossible even if it means treading on a foreign path.

米歇爾·阿比蓋爾是一位樂觀主義者，她相信沒有什麼是不可能的，即使這意味著走一條陌生的道路。