美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔倾向于潜在降息

随着美国经济进入第四季度，鲍威尔和其他美联储官员正在重新评估他们在保护劳动力市场的同时管理通胀压力的方法。

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is leaning towards a potential interest rate cut, bolstered by recent data indicating a slowdown in inflation.

近期数据显示通胀放缓，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔倾向于可能降息。

As the U.S. economy enters the fourth quarter, Powell and other Fed officials are reassessing their approach to managing inflationary pressures while safeguarding the labor market. 

随着美国经济进入第四季度，鲍威尔和其他美联储官员正在重新评估他们在保护劳动力市场的同时管理通胀压力的方法。

The most recent consumer price index (CPI) data, showing a minimal 0.1% rise in September, has given Powell the confidence to consider easing rates. This would be the smallest CPI increase in three months, signaling that price stability may be within reach.

最新的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据显示 9 月份最低上涨 0.1%，这让鲍威尔有信心考虑放松利率。这将是三个月来最小的 CPI 涨幅，表明价格稳定可能指日可待。

CPI and Core Inflation Trends

CPI 和核心通胀趋势

The latest inflation data is a critical marker for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. The September CPI’s 0.1% rise marks a notable slowdown from previous months. On a yearly basis, the CPI is expected to show a 2.3% increase, the lowest annual pace since early 2021. This trend aligns with the Fed’s long-term goal of maintaining price stability.

最新的通胀数据是美联储货币政策决策的关键指标。 9 月份 CPI 上涨 0.1%，较前几个月明显放缓。按年计算，CPI 预计将上涨 2.3%，为 2021 年初以来的最低年度涨幅。这一趋势符合美联储维持物价稳定的长期目标。

In addition to the headline CPI, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, provides a clearer picture of underlying inflationary pressures. Core CPI is projected to have risen by 0.2% in September, contributing to a 3.2% annual increase. 

除了总体消费者物价指数之外，核心通胀（不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格）可以更清晰地反映潜在的通胀压力。预计 9 月份核心 CPI 上涨 0.2%，年率上涨 3.2%。

While core inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, the slower growth suggests that inflationary pressures are easing. This data reassures Powell that inflation is gradually cooling down, potentially paving the way for a quarter-point rate cut in the Fed’s upcoming November meeting.

尽管核心通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标，但增长放缓表明通胀压力正在缓解。这一数据让鲍威尔放心，通胀正在逐渐降温，可能为美联储即将举行的 11 月会议降息 25 个基点铺平道路。

Employment and Producer Price Data Complicate Decision

就业和生产者价格数据使决策变得复杂

While inflation is trending in the right direction, Powell faces another challenge in the form of a stronger-than-expected September jobs report. A resilient labor market is pushing wage growth, which could sustain upward inflation pressure. 

虽然通胀正朝着正确的方向发展，但鲍威尔面临着另一个挑战，即强于预期的 9 月份就业报告。富有弹性的劳动力市场正在推动工资增长，这可能会维持通胀上行压力。

Although job growth traditionally raises concerns about rising inflation, Powell has indicated that the current data offers the Fed some breathing room. The balance between slowing inflation and a tight labor market will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s next steps.

尽管就业增长传统上会引发人们对通胀上升的担忧，但鲍威尔表示，当前的数据为美联储提供了一些喘息的空间。通胀放缓与劳动力市场吃紧之间的平衡对于决定美联储下一步行动至关重要。

Powell’s cautious optimism is further supported by the expectation of a lower producer price index (PPI), which measures the cost pressures faced by businesses. A slower PPI growth rate could ease business expenses, potentially contributing to a more favorable inflation outlook.

生产者价格指数（PPI）下降的预期进一步支撑了鲍威尔的谨慎乐观态度，该指数衡量企业面临的成本压力。 PPI 增速放缓可能会缓解企业支出，从而有可能带来更有利的通胀前景。

Global Central Banks Move Towards Rate Cuts

全球央行迈向降息

As Powell navigates these economic dynamics, other central banks worldwide are cutting interest rates. In Asia, New Zealand and South Korea are expected to announce rate reductions this week in response to cooling inflation and weaker labor markets. New Zealand’s central bank is projected to reduce rates by half a percentage point, while the Bank of Korea will likely make a quarter-point cut.

当鲍威尔驾驭这些经济动态时，全球其他央行正在降息。在亚洲，新西兰和韩国预计将于本周宣布降息，以应对通胀降温和劳动力市场疲软。新西兰央行预计将降息半个百分点，而韩国央行可能会降息四分之一个百分点。

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also signaling a potential rate cut. Manufacturing struggles, particularly in Germany, and broader economic challenges have increased pressure on the ECB to ease rates. Similarly, the Bank of England is considering more aggressive rate cuts, with upcoming GDP data likely influencing their decision.

在欧洲，欧洲央行（ECB）也发出可能降息的信号。制造业的困境（尤其是德国）以及更广泛的经济挑战加大了欧洲央行放松利率的压力。同样，英国央行正在考虑更激进的降息，即将公布的 GDP 数据可能会影响他们的决定。

Outlook for U.S. Inflation

美国通胀前景

According to May 2021 data, the economists also expect the U.S. inflation to decline further in the coming months. Core PCE, another inflation measure favored by the Bloomberg analysts is expected to converge with the Fed’s 2 % goal.

根据2021年5月的数据，经济学家还预计未来几个月美国通胀将进一步下降。彭博分析师青睐的另一项通胀指标核心个人消费支出预计将与美联储 2% 的目标趋同。

The ‘‘modest’’ inflation expectations are also consistent with the growing FSF [Fed’s Summary of Financial Operations] and M2 [money supply] emphasizing that Price Stability is fading in the near future which makes the rate cut probable.

“温和”的通胀预期也与不断增长的 FSF（美联储金融运作摘要）和 M2（货币供应量）一致，强调价格稳定性在不久的将来正在减弱，这使得降息成为可能。

When Powell and his team are meeting in November they will balance these inflation signals against the labor market and business cost data. It should lay down the groundwork for the expected US monetary policy in advance of the 2024 elections, with the Fed remaining slightly bullish on inflation.

当鲍威尔和他的团队在 11 月份开会时，他们将平衡这些通胀信号与劳动力市场和商业成本数据。它应该为 2024 年大选前的预期美国货币政策奠定基础，美联储仍对通胀略显看好。

Victor Muriki

维克多·穆里基

Editor

编辑

Victor Muriki is an esteemed writer focused on cryptocurrency and finance, holding a Bachelor`s in Actuarial Science.

Victor Muriki 是一位受人尊敬的作家，专注于加密货币和金融领域，拥有精算学学士学位。

Michelle Abigail

米歇尔·阿比盖尔

Editor

编辑

Michelle Abigail is an optimist who believes nothing is impossible even if it means treading on a foreign path.

米歇尔·阿比盖尔是一位乐观主义者，她相信没有什么是不可能的，即使这意味着走一条陌生的道路。