為什麼這位 ETF 專家看好以太坊並表示華盛頓的加密貨幣立場被誤解

Bitwise 的Matt Hougan 表示，如果副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris) 在美國總統選舉中擊敗唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)，這可能對以太坊有利，儘管加密貨幣無論如何都處於良好狀態。

Bitwise Asset Management is having a great 2024.

Bitwise 資產管理公司 2024 年表現優異。

The firm, which specializes in developing crypto investment products, launched two of the most successful exchange-traded funds (ETFs) of all time. Its spot bitcoin ETF has amassed more than $1.2 billion in the span of nine months, while its spot ether ETF has raked in over $250 million in 84 days.

該公司專門開發加密貨幣投資產品，推出了有史以來最成功的兩個交易所交易基金（ETF）。其現貨比特幣 ETF 在 9 個月內已累積了超過 12 億美元，而其現貨以太坊 ETF 在 84 天內已累積了超過 2.5 億美元。

“We’re holding our own against BlackRock and Fidelity,” Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan told CoinDesk, referring to two giants of traditional finance that have vastly larger operations than Bitwise. “There are people who want a crypto-native asset manager to survive.”

Bitwise 首席投資長 Matt Hougan 告訴 CoinDesk：「我們正在與 BlackRock 和 Fidelity 抗衡。」這兩家傳統金融巨頭的業務規模遠超 Bitwise。 “有些人希望加密原生資產管理公司能夠生存。”

But that’s not all. The company grew its assets under management from roughly $1 billion to $5 billion, Hougan said, and Bitwise’s acquisition of ETC Group – Europe’s largest bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) issuer – means the firm now has a solid footing on the old continent.

但這還不是全部。 Hougan 表示，該公司管理的資產從約10 億美元增加到50 億美元，Bitwise 收購了歐洲最大的比特幣交易所交易產品(ETP) 發行商ETC Group，這意味著該公司現在在舊大陸上站穩了腳跟。

If you listen to Hougan, they’re just getting started.

如果你聽 Hougan 的話，你會發現他們才剛開始。

“We’ve entered the ETF era of crypto,” he said. That means crypto is going to be normalized in people’s portfolios, and a growing cohort of investors will want access to a wide array of crypto investment vehicles, be it single-asset (like the spot bitcoin ETFs) or multi-asset products (which could combine bitcoin and ether, for example).

「我們已經進入了加密貨幣的 ETF 時代，」他說。這意味著加密貨幣將在人們的投資組合中正常化，越來越多的投資者將希望獲得各種加密貨幣投資工具，無論是單一資產（如現貨比特幣 ETF）還是多資產產品（可能例如，結合比特幣和以太幣）。

Case in point, on Oct. 7 Bitwise filed to convert three of its crypto futures ETFs into strategy-based trend-following funds, which rotate out of the market when it loses momentum, with the goal of providing exposure to volatility to investors while minimizing downside risk.

典型的例子是，10 月7 日，Bitwise 申請將其三隻加密貨幣期貨ETF 轉換為基於策略的趨勢追蹤基金，這些基金在市場失去動力時退出市場，目的是為投資者提供波動性風險，同時最大限度地減少波動性。

Bitwise’s ascent is happening in a context of quick technological innovation in crypto, with settlement times and transaction fees getting ever lower – which means crypto applications can now become mainstream much faster than people think, according to Hougan. And shifting political tides in Washington could indicate that, as far as regulatory roadblocks go, the worst is behind us.

Hougan 表示，Bitwise 的崛起是在加密技術快速創新的背景下發生的，結算時間和交易費用越來越低，這意味著加密應用程式現在可以比人們想像的更快地成為主流。華盛頓政治潮流的轉變可能表明，就監管障礙而言，最糟糕的時期已經過去。

“It won’t be all sunshine and roses, it will still be imperfect. I just think it will be better than in the past,” Hougan said.

「它不會都是陽光和玫瑰，它仍然是不完美的。我只是認為它會比過去更好，」霍根說。

Chart: Bitwise crypto ETF flows are lagging behind projections

圖：Bitwise 加密 ETF 流量落後於預測

If the tremendous success of bitcoin ETFs is the story of the year, the comparatively disappointing ether ETF flows has turned sentiment – at least on Crypto Twitter – against the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

如果比特幣 ETF 的巨大成功是今年的焦點，那麼相對令人失望的以太坊 ETF 流量則已經將市場情緒（至少在 Crypto Twitter 上）轉向了對市值第二大加密貨幣的看法。

“Inside crypto, many people look at Ethereum as old tech and would rather talk about Solana or Sui or Monad or Aptos or whatever,” Hougan said.

「在加密貨幣領域，許多人將以太坊視為舊技術，而更願意談論 Solana、Sui、Monad、Aptos 等，」Hougan 說。

But for him, they’re missing the bigger picture.

但對他來說，他們錯過了更大的圖像。

The bulk of the $170 billion stablecoin market is issued on Ethereum, Hougan pointed out, and the majority of tokenization projects – like BlackRock’s BUIDL fund or DeFi protocol Ondo – are being built on it, too. Same with the most popular crypto apps, like Uniswap or Aave.

Hougan 指出，價值 1700 億美元的穩定幣市場大部分是在以太坊上發行的，大多數代幣化項目——比如貝萊德的 BUIDL 基金或 DeFi 協議 Ondo——也都建立在以太坊上。與最受歡迎的加密應用程式相同，例如 Uniswap 或 Aave。

“It’s the Microsoft of blockchains, because Microsoft is like this really boring old tech company from the ’70s and it’s still the third-largest company in the world,” Hougan said. “If you work at a large bank and you’re trying to tokenize an asset, you’re not going to get fired for putting it on Ethereum.”

「它是區塊鏈領域的微軟，因為微軟就像這家 70 年代非常無聊的老科技公司，但它仍然是世界第三大公司，」Hougan 說。 “如果你在一家大型銀行工作，並且你正在嘗試將一項資產代幣化，那麼你不會因為將其放在以太坊上而被解僱。”

In that sense, Ethereum is the platform for killer crypto applications. So, the network is being sold to investors because it has utility – the fact that it also produces cash flow doesn’t hurt at all.

從這個意義上說，以太坊是殺手級加密應用程式的平台。因此，該網路之所以被出售給投資者，是因為它具有實用性——事實上，它還能產生現金流，這一點也沒有什麼壞處。

In fact, Hougan said that among clients, interest for bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum’s ether (ETH) is neatly divided in half. Those with concerns about the monetary situation and the fate of the U.S. dollar will naturally gravitate toward bitcoin, while the rest tend to be much more excited about everything being built on top of Ethereum.

事實上，Hougan 表示，在客戶中，對比特幣 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 的興趣正好分成兩半。那些擔心貨幣狀況和美元命運的人自然會傾向於比特幣，而其他人往往對建立在以太坊之上的一切感到更加興奮。

“One thing that I’m really confident about is that 2025 flows in ether ETFs will exceed 2024 flows. And I bet 2026 flows will exceed 2025 flows,” Hougan said. “I just think Ethereum takes somewhat more education than bitcoin, but that education is happening.”

「我真正有信心的一件事是，2025 年以太坊 ETF 的流量將超過 2024 年的流量。我打賭 2026 年的流量將超過 2025 年的流量，」Hougan 說。 “我只是認為以太坊比比特幣需要更多的教育，但這種教育正在發生。”

Another major development this year? The feeling that in Washington, crypto isn’t taboo anymore.

今年的另一個重大發展？在華盛頓，加密貨幣不再是禁忌。

The White House took an adversarial stance towards crypto through most of U.S. President Joe Biden’s term – for example, going out of its way to veto a controversial accounting measure, SAB 121, which makes it hard for banks to custody crypto.

在美國總統拜登的大部分任期內，白宮對加密貨幣採取了敵對立場，例如，不遺餘力否決一項有爭議的會計措施 SAB 121，這使得銀行很難託管加密貨幣。

But things started to change when former President Donald Trump said in May that he’d champion the industry. He then doubled down by vowing to constitute a strategic bitcoin reserve, to free Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht from prison and to help the bitcoin mining industry

但當前總統唐納德·特朗普五月表示他將支持該行業時，情況開始發生變化。然後，他加倍努力，誓言建立比特幣戰略儲備，將絲綢之路創始人羅斯·烏布利希從監獄中釋放出來，並幫助比特幣採礦業