第五紀元：比特幣轉型為第 2 層生態系統的黎明

歡迎來到比特幣的“第五紀元”，最近的減半事件標誌著新比特幣的發行量減少。鏈上活動的激增，包括在符文上創建迷因硬幣，推高了交易費用，引發了人們對閃電網路等第 2 層解決方案的採用增加的猜測。減半也刺激了與比特幣 L2 相關的代幣的上漲，引發了人們對 BTC 餘額較低的用戶能否存取這些平台的擔憂。

Epoch V: The Dawn of Bitcoin's Transformation

第五紀元：比特幣轉型的黎明

On April 20th, the Bitcoin network underwent its highly anticipated fourth halving, a predetermined reduction in the issuance rate of new bitcoins. This event, while significant in its own right, has also sparked speculation and excitement about the potential ramifications for the Bitcoin ecosystem in the years to come.

4 月 20 日，比特幣網路經歷了備受期待的第四次減半，即新比特幣發行率的預定降低。這事件雖然本身意義重大，但也引發了人們對未來幾年比特幣生態系統潛在影響的猜測和興奮。

The halving has coincided with the emergence of Runes, a novel protocol that has facilitated the creation of numerous meme coins on the Bitcoin blockchain. This surge in token issuance has generated over $80 million in fees for bitcoin miners and contributed to an increase in transaction costs. The average transaction fee on the Bitcoin network has now surpassed $70, a notable rise of over 1,395.8% compared to the 30-day trailing average.

減半恰逢符文的出現，符文是一種新穎的協議，促進了比特幣區塊鏈上大量模因幣的創建。代幣發行量的激增為比特幣礦工帶來了超過 8000 萬美元的費用，並導致交易成本增加。比特幣網路的平均交易費用現已超過 70 美元，與 30 天追蹤平均值相比顯著上漲超過 1,395.8%。

While the sustainability of this elevated activity remains uncertain, some experts anticipate that the period leading up to the next halving in 2028, known as "Epoch V," will witness the widespread adoption of Bitcoin layer 2 solutions. These solutions, such as the Lightning Network, aim to alleviate congestion and reduce transaction costs on the main Bitcoin blockchain.

儘管這種活動的可持續性仍不確定，但一些專家預計，在 2028 年下一次減半之前的時期（稱為「第五紀元」）將見證比特幣第 2 層解決方案的廣泛採用。這些解決方案（例如閃電網路）旨在緩解主要比特幣區塊鏈上的擁塞並降低交易成本。

"Any factor that leads to a spike in fees will likely prompt individuals to seek out alternative options," explained Ava Chow, a Bitcoin Core developer, in an interview with CoinDesk. "Lightning is one such option, along with side chains like Fedimint and Ark and a range of layer 2s. Elevated fee environments will drive people to consider these alternatives."

比特幣核心開發人員 Ava Chow 在接受 CoinDesk 採訪時解釋道：“任何導致費用飆升的因素都可能促使個人尋找替代方案。” 「閃電網路就是這樣的選擇，還有 Fedimint 和 Ark 等側鏈以及一系列第 2 層。費用環境的提高將促使人們考慮這些替代方案。”

This sentiment is echoed in a recent Messari report, which emphasizes the necessity of layer-2 solutions for Bitcoin in light of the increasing on-chain activity. According to analyst Nikhil Chaturvedi, "layer-2 solutions for Bitcoin are not just a luxury but a necessity." Bitcoin is evolving from its former perception as "digital gold" into a platform upon which various applications and services can be built.

這種觀點在最近的 Messari 報告中得到了呼應，該報告強調了鑑於鏈上活動的增加，比特幣第 2 層解決方案的必要性。分析師 Nikhil Chaturvedi 表示，“比特幣的第 2 層解決方案不僅是奢侈品，而且是必需品。”比特幣正在從先前被視為「數位黃金」的概念發展成為一個可以建立各種應用程式和服務的平台。

This shift in perspective was initiated by the introduction of the Ordinals protocol last year, which enabled novel methods of storing data on the smallest units of BTC, known as satoshis. To date, over $3 billion worth of Ordinal "inscriptions" have been traded, with an upward trend in trading activity and an average transaction volume approaching 2 million.

這種觀點的轉變是由去年 Ordinals 協議的引入引發的，該協議啟用了在 BTC 的最小單位（稱為「聰」）上儲存資料的新方法。迄今為止，Ordinal「銘文」的交易量已超過30億美元，交易活躍度呈上升趨勢，平均交易量接近200萬筆。

Ordinals, however, is not the sole contributor to rising Bitcoin fees. BitVM, a solution that facilitates off-chain computation, enables the development of Ethereum-like smart contracts on Bitcoin. Babylon is developing a mechanism for staking and earning yield on BTC holdings. Additionally, layer 2 solutions such as Stacks and Merlin are hosting a growing number of decentralized applications (dApps) and meme coins.

然而，序號並不是比特幣費用上漲的唯一因素。 BitVM 是一種促進鏈外運算的解決方案，可在比特幣上開發類似以太坊的智慧合約。 Babylon 正在開發一種透過持有 BTC 進行質押並賺取收益的機制。此外，Stacks 和 Merlin 等 Layer 2 解決方案正在託管越來越多的去中心化應用程式 (dApp) 和 meme 幣。

Intriguingly, tokens associated with Bitcoin layer 2s have outperformed BTC in the aftermath of the halving. Elastos' (ELA) token has experienced an 11% increase, while SatoshiVM's (SAVM) has ascended by 5%. Stacks' (STX) token has witnessed a remarkable surge of nearly 20%, reaching $2.87, although this may also be attributed to the network's forthcoming Nakamoto upgrade.

有趣的是，在減半後，與比特幣第 2 層相關的代幣的表現優於 BTC。 Elastos 的 (ELA) 代幣上漲了 11%，而 SatoshiVM (SAVM) 的代幣上漲了 5%。 Stacks (STX) 代幣大幅上漲近 20%，達到 2.87 美元，儘管這也可能歸因於網路即將進行的 Nakamoto 升級。

While market forces are expected to drive adoption of Bitcoin's secondary layers, this may not always be entirely beneficial. For instance, users with modest bitcoin holdings may be priced out of non-custodial usage of platforms like Lightning, which requires an initial on-chain setup transaction and a subsequent on-chain closing transaction, explained Chow.

雖然市場力量預計將推動比特幣第二層的採用，但這可能並不總是完全有利的。例如，持有少量比特幣的用戶可能會因價格過高而無法使用閃電網路等平台，這需要初始的鏈上設定交易和隨後的鏈上結算交易，Chow 解釋道。

"In a high fee environment, it becomes somewhat challenging to initiate using such solutions," Chow added.

「在高費用環境中，開始使用此類解決方案變得有些困難，」Chow 補充道。

However, there are potential workarounds, such as custodial Lightning services that subsidize these costly transactions.

然而，有一些潛在的解決方法，例如可以補貼這些昂貴交易的託管閃電服務。

"I am concerned that higher BTC fees will push users toward custodial Lightning services, thereby compromising their sovereignty and anonymity over their BTC holdings," pseudonymous bitcoiner and Lightning critic Sovereign Matt told CoinDesk. "Custodial Lightning services could become the new intermediaries that people are compelled to trust with their savings, as self-custody and conducting transactions on the main Bitcoin blockchain become prohibitively expensive."

「我擔心更高的 BTC 費用將促使用戶轉向託管閃電網路服務，從而損害他們對 BTC 持有量的主權和匿名性，」匿名比特幣持有者和閃電網路評論家 Sovereign Matt 告訴 CoinDesk。 “託管閃電服務可能成為人們被迫信任其儲蓄的新中介機構，因為在主要比特幣區塊鏈上進行自我託管和進行交易變得異常昂貴。”

To a certain extent, the current landscape is a consequence of the "Blocksize Wars" that transpired years ago, when the Bitcoin community debated how to scale the network. Ultimately, it was decided that instead of increasing the block size, scaling would be achieved through layer 2 solutions. This decision has shaped the current trajectory of Bitcoin development.

在某種程度上，當前的格局是多年前發生的「區塊大小戰爭」的結果，當時比特幣社群爭論如何擴展網路。最終，我們決定透過第 2 層解決方案來實現擴展，而不是增加區塊大小。這項決定塑造了當前比特幣發展的軌跡。

"There are essentially two schools of thought regarding increasing the number of transactions per block," said Chow. "One approach is to enlarge the block size, while the other is to reduce the transaction size." Expanding the block size, according to Chow, would be akin to "brute forcing" a solution.

「關於增加每個區塊的交易數量，基本上有兩個思想流派，」Chow 說。 “一種方法是擴大區塊大小，另一種方法是減少交易大小。” Chow 表示，擴大區塊大小類似於「暴力破解」解決方案。

While methods exist for reducing the size and compactness of bitcoin transactions, until such optimizations are implemented, layer 2 solutions are likely to continue to proliferate.

雖然有減少比特幣交易規模和緊湊性的方法，但在實施此類優化之前，第 2 層解決方案可能會繼續激增。