第五纪元：比特币向第 2 层生态系统转型的黎明

欢迎来到比特币的“第五纪元”，最近的减半事件标志着新比特币的发行量减少。链上活动的激增，包括在符文上创建模因硬币，推高了交易费用，引发了人们对闪电网络等第 2 层解决方案的采用增加的猜测。减半还刺激了与比特币 L2 相关的代币的上涨，引发了人们对 BTC 余额较低的用户能否访问这些平台的担忧。

Epoch V: The Dawn of Bitcoin's Transformation

第五纪元：比特币转型的黎明

On April 20th, the Bitcoin network underwent its highly anticipated fourth halving, a predetermined reduction in the issuance rate of new bitcoins. This event, while significant in its own right, has also sparked speculation and excitement about the potential ramifications for the Bitcoin ecosystem in the years to come.

4 月 20 日，比特币网络经历了备受期待的第四次减半，即新比特币发行率的预定降低。这一事件虽然本身意义重大，但也引发了人们对未来几年比特币生态系统潜在影响的猜测和兴奋。

The halving has coincided with the emergence of Runes, a novel protocol that has facilitated the creation of numerous meme coins on the Bitcoin blockchain. This surge in token issuance has generated over $80 million in fees for bitcoin miners and contributed to an increase in transaction costs. The average transaction fee on the Bitcoin network has now surpassed $70, a notable rise of over 1,395.8% compared to the 30-day trailing average.

减半恰逢符文的出现，符文是一种新颖的协议，促进了比特币区块链上大量模因币的创建。代币发行量的激增给比特币矿工带来了超过 8000 万美元的费用，并导致交易成本增加。比特币网络的平均交易费用现已超过 70 美元，与 30 天追踪平均值相比显着上涨超过 1,395.8%。

While the sustainability of this elevated activity remains uncertain, some experts anticipate that the period leading up to the next halving in 2028, known as "Epoch V," will witness the widespread adoption of Bitcoin layer 2 solutions. These solutions, such as the Lightning Network, aim to alleviate congestion and reduce transaction costs on the main Bitcoin blockchain.

尽管这种活动的可持续性仍不确定，但一些专家预计，在 2028 年下一次减半之前的时期（称为“第五纪元”）将见证比特币第 2 层解决方案的广泛采用。这些解决方案（例如闪电网络）旨在缓解主要比特币区块链上的拥塞并降低交易成本。

"Any factor that leads to a spike in fees will likely prompt individuals to seek out alternative options," explained Ava Chow, a Bitcoin Core developer, in an interview with CoinDesk. "Lightning is one such option, along with side chains like Fedimint and Ark and a range of layer 2s. Elevated fee environments will drive people to consider these alternatives."

比特币核心开发人员 Ava Chow 在接受 CoinDesk 采访时解释道：“任何导致费用飙升的因素都可能促使个人寻找替代选择。” “闪电网络就是这样的选择，还有 Fedimint 和 Ark 等侧链以及一系列第 2 层。费用环境的提高将促使人们考虑这些替代方案。”

This sentiment is echoed in a recent Messari report, which emphasizes the necessity of layer-2 solutions for Bitcoin in light of the increasing on-chain activity. According to analyst Nikhil Chaturvedi, "layer-2 solutions for Bitcoin are not just a luxury but a necessity." Bitcoin is evolving from its former perception as "digital gold" into a platform upon which various applications and services can be built.

这种观点在最近的 Messari 报告中得到了呼应，该报告强调了鉴于链上活动的增加，比特币第 2 层解决方案的必要性。分析师 Nikhil Chaturvedi 表示，“比特币的第 2 层解决方案不仅是奢侈品，而且是必需品。”比特币正在从之前被视为“数字黄金”的概念发展成为一个可以构建各种应用程序和服务的平台。

This shift in perspective was initiated by the introduction of the Ordinals protocol last year, which enabled novel methods of storing data on the smallest units of BTC, known as satoshis. To date, over $3 billion worth of Ordinal "inscriptions" have been traded, with an upward trend in trading activity and an average transaction volume approaching 2 million.

这种观点的转变是由去年 Ordinals 协议的引入引发的，该协议启用了在 BTC 的最小单位（称为“聪”）上存储数据的新方法。迄今为止，Ordinal“铭文”的交易量已超过30亿美元，交易活跃度呈上升趋势，平均交易量接近200万笔。

Ordinals, however, is not the sole contributor to rising Bitcoin fees. BitVM, a solution that facilitates off-chain computation, enables the development of Ethereum-like smart contracts on Bitcoin. Babylon is developing a mechanism for staking and earning yield on BTC holdings. Additionally, layer 2 solutions such as Stacks and Merlin are hosting a growing number of decentralized applications (dApps) and meme coins.

然而，序号并不是比特币费用上涨的唯一因素。 BitVM 是一种促进链外计算的解决方案，可以在比特币上开发类似以太坊的智能合约。 Babylon 正在开发一种通过持有 BTC 进行质押并赚取收益的机制。此外，Stacks 和 Merlin 等 Layer 2 解决方案正在托管越来越多的去中心化应用程序 (dApp) 和 meme 币。

Intriguingly, tokens associated with Bitcoin layer 2s have outperformed BTC in the aftermath of the halving. Elastos' (ELA) token has experienced an 11% increase, while SatoshiVM's (SAVM) has ascended by 5%. Stacks' (STX) token has witnessed a remarkable surge of nearly 20%, reaching $2.87, although this may also be attributed to the network's forthcoming Nakamoto upgrade.

有趣的是，在减半后，与比特币第 2 层相关的代币的表现优于 BTC。 Elastos 的 (ELA) 代币上涨了 11%，而 SatoshiVM (SAVM) 的代币上涨了 5%。 Stacks (STX) 代币大幅上涨近 20%，达到 2.87 美元，尽管这也可能归因于网络即将进行的 Nakamoto 升级。

While market forces are expected to drive adoption of Bitcoin's secondary layers, this may not always be entirely beneficial. For instance, users with modest bitcoin holdings may be priced out of non-custodial usage of platforms like Lightning, which requires an initial on-chain setup transaction and a subsequent on-chain closing transaction, explained Chow.

虽然市场力量预计将推动比特币第二层的采用，但这可能并不总是完全有利的。例如，持有少量比特币的用户可能会因价格过高而无法使用闪电网络等平台，这需要初始的链上设置交易和随后的链上结算交易，Chow 解释道。

"In a high fee environment, it becomes somewhat challenging to initiate using such solutions," Chow added.

“在高费用环境中，开始使用此类解决方案变得有些困难，”Chow 补充道。

However, there are potential workarounds, such as custodial Lightning services that subsidize these costly transactions.

然而，有一些潜在的解决方法，例如可以补贴这些昂贵交易的托管闪电服务。

"I am concerned that higher BTC fees will push users toward custodial Lightning services, thereby compromising their sovereignty and anonymity over their BTC holdings," pseudonymous bitcoiner and Lightning critic Sovereign Matt told CoinDesk. "Custodial Lightning services could become the new intermediaries that people are compelled to trust with their savings, as self-custody and conducting transactions on the main Bitcoin blockchain become prohibitively expensive."

“我担心更高的 BTC 费用将促使用户转向托管闪电网络服务，从而损害他们对 BTC 持有量的主权和匿名性，”匿名比特币持有者和闪电网络评论家 Sovereign Matt 告诉 CoinDesk。 “托管闪电服务可能成为人们被迫信任其储蓄的新中介机构，因为在主要比特币区块链上进行自我托管和进行交易变得异常昂贵。”

To a certain extent, the current landscape is a consequence of the "Blocksize Wars" that transpired years ago, when the Bitcoin community debated how to scale the network. Ultimately, it was decided that instead of increasing the block size, scaling would be achieved through layer 2 solutions. This decision has shaped the current trajectory of Bitcoin development.

在某种程度上，当前的格局是多年前发生的“区块大小战争”的结果，当时比特币社区争论如何扩展网络。最终，我们决定通过第 2 层解决方案来实现扩展，而不是增加块大小。这一决定塑造了当前比特币发展的轨迹。

"There are essentially two schools of thought regarding increasing the number of transactions per block," said Chow. "One approach is to enlarge the block size, while the other is to reduce the transaction size." Expanding the block size, according to Chow, would be akin to "brute forcing" a solution.

“关于增加每个区块的交易数量，基本上有两种思想流派，”Chow 说。 “一种方法是扩大区块大小，另一种方法是减少交易大小。” Chow 表示，扩大区块大小类似于“暴力破解”解决方案。

While methods exist for reducing the size and compactness of bitcoin transactions, until such optimizations are implemented, layer 2 solutions are likely to continue to proliferate.

虽然存在减少比特币交易规模和紧凑性的方法，但在实施此类优化之前，第 2 层解决方案可能会继续激增。