ENA將超越MKR，USDe注定取代DAI成為領先的去中心化穩定幣

作者：Felix 輸出：標題：ENA 將超越 MKR，USDe 注定取代 DAI 成為領先的去中心化穩定幣

As DeFi continues to grow in popularity, the need for a decentralized, censorship-resistant stablecoin becomes increasingly evident. Among the various stablecoins in the market, MakerDAO's DAI has been leading the way, with UST briefly surpassing it in terms of market capitalization in 2022.

隨著 DeFi 的不斷普及，對去中心化、抗審查的穩定幣的需求變得越來越明顯。在市場上的各種穩定幣中，MakerDAO 的 DAI 一直處於領先地位，UST 的市值將在 2022 年短暫超越它。

However, DAI's overcollateralized model is capital inefficient, and the fees generated by the MakerDAO protocol only go to the DAO, not to stablecoin holders. In contrast, Ethena Labs' USDe is a yield-bearing stablecoin that provides a more efficient and rewarding alternative.

然而，DAI 的超額抵押模式資本效率低下，MakerDAO 協議產生的費用隻流向 DAO，而不流向穩定幣持有者。相比之下，Ethena Labs 的 USDe 是一種有收益的穩定幣，提供了更有效率、更有價值的替代方案。

In this article, we will delve into the reasons why we believe Ethena's USDe is poised to overtake DAI as the leading decentralized stablecoin. We will also analyze the current stablecoin landscape, USDe's token economics, and a valuation and scenario analysis of Ethena's native token, ENA.

在本文中，我們將深入探討為什麼我們相信 Ethena 的 USDe 有望取代 DAI 成為領先的去中心化穩定幣。我們還將分析當前的穩定幣格局、USDe 的代幣經濟學，以及 Ethena 原生代幣 ENA 的估值和場景分析。

Current Stablecoin Landscape

當前的穩定幣格局

Several key trends are shaping the stablecoin market:

幾個主要趨勢正在塑造穩定幣市場：

- Decentralized stablecoins, such as USDe, are gaining traction due to their alignment with the ethos of Web3 and DeFi.

- USDe 等去中心化穩定幣由於符合 Web3 和 DeFi 的精神而受到關注。

- Yield-bearing stablecoins, like USDe, are attracting investors seeking passive income opportunities, driving the growth of these stables.

- USDe 等具有收益的穩定幣正在吸引尋求被動收入機會的投資者，推動這些穩定幣的成長。

- Stablecoins are poised for massive growth, with some predicting a market cap of $1 trillion by 2030, especially considering Trump’s victory and stablecoin regulations expected to be passed as soon as this year. Hence, presenting Ethena with a large growth opportunity.

- 穩定幣有望實現大幅增長，一些人預測到 2030 年市值將達到 1 兆美元，特別是考慮到川普的勝利以及穩定幣法規預計將於今年盡快通過。因此，為 Ethena 提供了巨大的成長機會。

USDe Token Economics

USDe 代幣經濟學

USDe token economics can be broadly divided into two parts:

USDe 代幣經濟學大致可分為兩部分：

- USDe stakers earn a yield, which is a portion of the PNL generated by Ethena's hedging activities. This yield is paid out daily to stakers.

- USDe 質押者賺取收益，這是 Ethena 的對沖活動產生的 PNL 的一部分。該收益每天都會支付給質押者。

- A specific portion of USDe stakers' yield is used to calculate Ethena's revenue, which is then used to derive a P/Revenue multiple for Ethena.

- USDe 質押者收益的特定部分用於計算 Ethena 的收入，然後用於得出 Ethena 的 P/收入倍數。

The following chart showcases how USDe stakers received over $100 million in yields:

下圖展示了 USDe 質押者如何獲得超過 1 億美元的收益：

Next, assuming a specific collateral split (shown below) and applying the yield on that collateral from Ethena’s dashboard (https://app.ethena.fi/dashboards/hedging/BTC), we can deduce the yield the protocol earned:

接下來，假設特定的抵押品分割（如下所示）並從Ethena 的儀表板（https://app.ethena.fi/dashboards/hedging/BTC）應用該抵押品的收益率，我們可以推斷出協議獲得的收益率：

Combining these two points, we can derive the total profit and loss (PNL) of the Ethena protocol, which is an estimated annualized PNL of $62 million:

結合這兩點，我們可以得出 Ethena 協議的總損益（PNL），預計年化 PNL 為 6,200 萬美元：

This puts ENA's MC/revenue multiple at 26x, which is more favorable compared to some other top DeFi projects (not based on FDV, of course, token unlocking is a key hurdle for the project).

這使得 ENA 的 MC/收入倍數達到 26 倍，這比其他一些頂級 DeFi 項目更有利（不是基於 FDV，當然，代幣解鎖是該項目的關鍵障礙）。

ENA Valuation: Scenario Analysis

ENA 估值：情境分析

The above assumptions lead to some logical deductions, which can be used to estimate Ethena's valuation by the end of next year. These assumptions will serve as the basis for the analysis that follows.

上述假設引出了一些邏輯推論，可以用來估計 Ethena 明年年底的估值。這些假設將作為後續分析的基礎。

It's important to note that Ethena's business model is predicated on a certain percentage of USDe remaining unstaked. This allows them to pay USDe holders more than they earn on the collateral while still maintaining an operating income margin of $0.04 per $1 USDe market cap.

值得注意的是，Ethena 的商業模式是以一定比例的 USDe 未質押為基礎的。這使得他們能夠向 USDe 持有者支付比抵押品賺取的更多的錢，同時仍保持每 1 USDe 市值 0.04 美元的營業利潤率。

Note: The collateral yield is based on the collateral split shown earlier and applied to the full year. Actual numbers may therefore differ slightly.

註：抵押品收益率是基於先前顯示的抵押品分割並應用於全年。因此，實際數字可能略有不同。

Two numbers drive Ethena's growth: USDe's market share and the overall growth of stablecoins.

有兩個數字推動 Ethena 的成長：USDe 的市場份額和穩定幣的整體成長。

The base case (highlighted in blue) assumes that USDe doubles its market share and that stablecoins grow 75% over the next year. This estimate is considered quite conservative by the author, and the bullish case (orange) is also very reasonable: USDe grows to 5% market share and total stablecoins grow 150%, bringing USDe's market value to nearly $23 billion. Green represents the bearish case, where USDe's market share does not grow, while the total stablecoin market value grows slightly by 25%.

基本情境（以藍色突出顯示）假設 USDe 的市佔率翻倍，穩定幣在明年成長 75%。作者認為這項估計相當保守，看漲情況（橘色）也非常合理：USDe 的市佔率成長至 5%，穩定幣總量成長 150%，使 USDe 的市值達到近 230 億美元。綠色代表看跌情況，USDe 的市佔率沒有成長，而穩定幣總市值小幅成長 25%。

Based on the assumed revenue margin of $0.04 as discussed earlier, ENA's revenue for next year would be as follows:

根據前面討論的 0.04 美元的假設收入利潤率，ENA 明年的收入如下：

Using an assumed 30x revenue multiple, we arrive at ENA's market cap in the table below. It's worth noting that the author anticipates 2025 to be a very strong year for crypto assets, with valuations outpacing fundamentals. 30x is only slightly higher than ENA's current multiple of 26x, so the potential upside for the following scenario analysis is much higher:

使用假設的 30 倍收入倍數，我們得出下表中 ENA 的市值。值得注意的是，作者預計 2025 年對於加密資產來說將是非常強勁的一年，估值將超過基本面。 30 倍僅略高於 ENA 目前的 26 倍，因此以下情境分析的潛在上行空間要高得多：

Finally, we can derive price targets and upside potential based on the market cap table and the expected circulating supply of ENA (which will almost double by the end of 2025) (see the previous

最後，我們可以根據市值表和 ENA 的預期流通供應量（到 2025 年底幾乎翻倍）得出價格目標和上漲潛力（請參閱先前的