ENA将超越MKR，USDe注定取代DAI成为领先的去中心化稳定币

作者：Felix 输出：标题：ENA 将超越 MKR，USDe 注定取代 DAI 成为领先的去中心化稳定币

As DeFi continues to grow in popularity, the need for a decentralized, censorship-resistant stablecoin becomes increasingly evident. Among the various stablecoins in the market, MakerDAO's DAI has been leading the way, with UST briefly surpassing it in terms of market capitalization in 2022.

随着 DeFi 的不断普及，对去中心化、抗审查的稳定币的需求变得越来越明显。在市场上的各种稳定币中，MakerDAO 的 DAI 一直处于领先地位，UST 的市值将在 2022 年短暂超越它。

However, DAI's overcollateralized model is capital inefficient, and the fees generated by the MakerDAO protocol only go to the DAO, not to stablecoin holders. In contrast, Ethena Labs' USDe is a yield-bearing stablecoin that provides a more efficient and rewarding alternative.

然而，DAI 的超额抵押模式资本效率低下，MakerDAO 协议产生的费用只流向 DAO，而不流向稳定币持有者。相比之下，Ethena Labs 的 USDe 是一种有收益的稳定币，提供了更高效、更有价值的替代方案。

In this article, we will delve into the reasons why we believe Ethena's USDe is poised to overtake DAI as the leading decentralized stablecoin. We will also analyze the current stablecoin landscape, USDe's token economics, and a valuation and scenario analysis of Ethena's native token, ENA.

在本文中，我们将深入探讨为什么我们相信 Ethena 的 USDe 有望取代 DAI 成为领先的去中心化稳定币。我们还将分析当前的稳定币格局、USDe 的代币经济学，以及 Ethena 原生代币 ENA 的估值和场景分析。

Current Stablecoin Landscape

当前的稳定币格局

Several key trends are shaping the stablecoin market:

几个主要趋势正在塑造稳定币市场：

- Decentralized stablecoins, such as USDe, are gaining traction due to their alignment with the ethos of Web3 and DeFi.

- USDe 等去中心化稳定币由于符合 Web3 和 DeFi 的精神而受到关注。

- Yield-bearing stablecoins, like USDe, are attracting investors seeking passive income opportunities, driving the growth of these stables.

- USDe 等具有收益的稳定币正在吸引寻求被动收入机会的投资者，推动这些稳定币的增长。

- Stablecoins are poised for massive growth, with some predicting a market cap of $1 trillion by 2030, especially considering Trump’s victory and stablecoin regulations expected to be passed as soon as this year. Hence, presenting Ethena with a large growth opportunity.

- 稳定币有望实现大幅增长，一些人预测到 2030 年市值将达到 1 万亿美元，特别是考虑到特朗普的胜利以及稳定币法规预计将于今年尽快通过。因此，为 Ethena 提供了巨大的增长机会。

USDe Token Economics

USDe 代币经济学

USDe token economics can be broadly divided into two parts:

USDe 代币经济学大致可分为两部分：

- USDe stakers earn a yield, which is a portion of the PNL generated by Ethena's hedging activities. This yield is paid out daily to stakers.

- USDe 质押者赚取收益，这是 Ethena 的对冲活动产生的 PNL 的一部分。该收益每天都会支付给质押者。

- A specific portion of USDe stakers' yield is used to calculate Ethena's revenue, which is then used to derive a P/Revenue multiple for Ethena.

- USDe 质押者收益的特定部分用于计算 Ethena 的收入，然后用于得出 Ethena 的 P/收入倍数。

The following chart showcases how USDe stakers received over $100 million in yields:

下图展示了 USDe 质押者如何获得超过 1 亿美元的收益：

Next, assuming a specific collateral split (shown below) and applying the yield on that collateral from Ethena’s dashboard (https://app.ethena.fi/dashboards/hedging/BTC), we can deduce the yield the protocol earned:

接下来，假设特定的抵押品分割（如下所示）并从 Ethena 的仪表板（https://app.ethena.fi/dashboards/hedging/BTC）应用该抵押品的收益率，我们可以推断出协议获得的收益率：

Combining these two points, we can derive the total profit and loss (PNL) of the Ethena protocol, which is an estimated annualized PNL of $62 million:

结合这两点，我们可以得出 Ethena 协议的总损益（PNL），预计年化 PNL 为 6200 万美元：

This puts ENA's MC/revenue multiple at 26x, which is more favorable compared to some other top DeFi projects (not based on FDV, of course, token unlocking is a key hurdle for the project).

这使得 ENA 的 MC/收入倍数达到 26 倍，这比其他一些顶级 DeFi 项目更有利（不是基于 FDV，当然，代币解锁是该项目的关键障碍）。

ENA Valuation: Scenario Analysis

ENA 估值：情景分析

The above assumptions lead to some logical deductions, which can be used to estimate Ethena's valuation by the end of next year. These assumptions will serve as the basis for the analysis that follows.

上述假设引出了一些逻辑推论，可以用来估计 Ethena 明年年底的估值。这些假设将作为后续分析的基础。

It's important to note that Ethena's business model is predicated on a certain percentage of USDe remaining unstaked. This allows them to pay USDe holders more than they earn on the collateral while still maintaining an operating income margin of $0.04 per $1 USDe market cap.

值得注意的是，Ethena 的商业模式是以一定比例的 USDe 未质押为基础的。这使得他们能够向 USDe 持有者支付比抵押品赚取的更多的钱，同时仍然保持每 1 USDe 市值 0.04 美元的营业利润率。

Note: The collateral yield is based on the collateral split shown earlier and applied to the full year. Actual numbers may therefore differ slightly.

注：抵押品收益率基于之前显示的抵押品分割并应用于全年。因此，实际数字可能略有不同。

Two numbers drive Ethena's growth: USDe's market share and the overall growth of stablecoins.

有两个数字推动 Ethena 的增长：USDe 的市场份额和稳定币的整体增长。

The base case (highlighted in blue) assumes that USDe doubles its market share and that stablecoins grow 75% over the next year. This estimate is considered quite conservative by the author, and the bullish case (orange) is also very reasonable: USDe grows to 5% market share and total stablecoins grow 150%, bringing USDe's market value to nearly $23 billion. Green represents the bearish case, where USDe's market share does not grow, while the total stablecoin market value grows slightly by 25%.

基本情景（以蓝色突出显示）假设 USDe 的市场份额翻倍，稳定币在明年增长 75%。作者认为这一估计相当保守，看涨情况（橙色）也非常合理：USDe 的市场份额增长至 5%，稳定币总量增长 150%，使 USDe 的市值达到近 230 亿美元。绿色代表看跌情况，USDe 的市场份额没有增长，而稳定币总市值小幅增长 25%。

Based on the assumed revenue margin of $0.04 as discussed earlier, ENA's revenue for next year would be as follows:

根据前面讨论的 0.04 美元的假设收入利润率，ENA 明年的收入如下：

Using an assumed 30x revenue multiple, we arrive at ENA's market cap in the table below. It's worth noting that the author anticipates 2025 to be a very strong year for crypto assets, with valuations outpacing fundamentals. 30x is only slightly higher than ENA's current multiple of 26x, so the potential upside for the following scenario analysis is much higher:

使用假设的 30 倍收入倍数，我们得出下表中 ENA 的市值。值得注意的是，作者预计 2025 年对于加密资产来说将是非常强劲的一年，估值将超过基本面。 30 倍仅略高于 ENA 当前的 26 倍，因此以下情景分析的潜在上行空间要高得多：

Finally, we can derive price targets and upside potential based on the market cap table and the expected circulating supply of ENA (which will almost double by the end of 2025) (see the previous

最后，我们可以根据市值表和 ENA 的预期流通供应量（到 2025 年底几乎翻倍）得出价格目标和上涨潜力（请参阅之前的