美國經濟在2024年結束了，比最初估計

真正的國內生產總值（GDP）在第四季度以2.4％的年化率擴大，從穩健的消費者活動中略高於2.3％的先前估計。

The US economy finished 2024 on a somewhat stronger footing than initially assessed, government figures showed on Wednesday, though questions about momentum persist heading into 2025 amid a shift in administration and heightened trade friction.

政府數據周三顯示，美國經濟在2024年的基礎上比最初評估的要強得多，儘管有關動量持續到2025年的疑問，因為在管理和貿易摩擦的變化之中。

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at a 2.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, revised slightly up from prior estimates of 2.3%, the Commerce Department said. This was largely driven by strong consumer activity during the holiday season.

商務部表示，皇家國內生產總值（GDP）在第四季度以2.4％的年化率擴大，比先前估計的2.3％略有修訂。這在很大程度上是由於假期中強大的消費者活動所驅動的。

This strong GDP growth in Q4 2024 was largely driven by a strong 4% rise in consumer spending during the holiday season, alongside increased government expenditures.

在第4季度2024年第4季度，這種強勁的GDP增長在很大程度上是由於假期期間消費者支出增長4％，而政府支出增加。

Inflation, however, remained elevated. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index - the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge - rose at an annual rate of 2.4%, exceeding the Fed’s 2% target.

但是，通貨膨脹仍然升高。個人消費支出（PCE）價格指數 - 美聯儲的首選通貨膨脹量表 - 每年增長2.4％，超過美聯儲的2％目標。

Solid 2024 Growth Tempered by Falling Business Investment

穩定的2024年增長因商業投資下降而恢復

For the entire 2024 year, the economy grew by 2.8%, a slight deceleration from the 2.9% growth observed in 2023.

在整個2024年中，經濟增長了2.8％，比2023年觀察到的2.9％的增長略有減速。

But despite the overall economic expansion, business investment declined. Corporate spending on equipment dropped sharply by 8.7% during the quarter, suggesting businesses grew increasingly cautious about large capital expenditures late last year.

但是，儘管經濟的整體增長，商業投資仍在下降。該季度的公司支出在設備上的支出急劇下降了8.7％，這表明企業對去年年底的大型資本支出越來越謹慎。

The decline in business investment was steeper than the initially estimated 7.6% decrease.

商業投資的下降比最初估計下降7.6％的人數急劇下降。

2025 Outlook: Trump Policies Add Layer of Uncertainty

2025 Outlook：特朗普政策增加了不確定性一層

Now, the question remains if the US will be able to sustain this growth with Donald Trump’s trade policies, federal workforce reductions, and even the pledges of widespread immigrant deportations.

現在，問題仍然是美國是否能夠通過唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的貿易政策，降低聯邦勞動力，甚至廣泛的移民驅逐出境的承諾來維持這種增長。

The tariffs especially could increase inflation and disrupt investment strategies, adding another complex layer to the current economic landscape. Although, at least for the crypto investors, tariffs shouldn’t matter, according to Arthur Hayes.

尤其是關稅可能會增加通貨膨脹並破壞投資策略，從而為當前的經濟格局增加了另一層複雜的一層。亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）表示，至少對於加密投資者而言，關稅並不重要。

Inflation, Fed Decisions, Trade Policy Key for 2025 Path

通貨膨脹，美聯儲決定，2025年路徑的貿易政策密鑰

While this is good news for the US economy, a lot has happened since Q4 2024. The current US trade policies can impact the US economy the most, in addition to having a global impact. In case the tariffs escalate, they could spark retaliatory measures, leading to slower economic growth.

雖然這對美國經濟來說是個好消息，但自2024年第四季度以來發生了很多事情。當前的美國貿易政策除了產生全球影響外，還最大。如果關稅升級，它們可能會引發報復措施，從而導致經濟增長速度降低。

Then, the potential geopolitical tensions might have an influence as well. Ongoing conflicts or supply chain disruptions may increase costs and affect economic stability.

然後，潛在的地緣政治緊張局勢也可能產生影響。持續的衝突或供應鏈中斷可能會增加成本並影響經濟穩定。

All things considered, going by the report, the US economy outperformed expectations in late 2024, but uncertainty remains for 2025. Inflation trends, Federal Reserve decisions, and the impact of trade policies will play a hugely important role in shaping the economic landscape.

根據報告的所有因素，美國經濟在2024年末都超過了預期，但2025年仍然存在不確定性。通貨膨脹趨勢，美聯儲的決策和貿易政策的影響將在塑造經濟環境中起著非常重要的作用。

If inflation continues to ease, we could see rate cuts that boost economic growth. On the other hand, if trade tensions rise or borrowing costs remain high, a slowdown may be on the horizon.

如果通貨膨脹繼續緩解，我們可以看到削減經濟增長的降低。另一方面，如果貿易緊張局勢上升或借貸成本仍然很高，則可能會放緩。

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