美国经济在2024年结束了，比最初估计

真正的国内生产总值（GDP）在第四季度以2.4％的年化率扩大，从稳健的消费者活动中略高于2.3％的先前估计。

The US economy finished 2024 on a somewhat stronger footing than initially assessed, government figures showed on Wednesday, though questions about momentum persist heading into 2025 amid a shift in administration and heightened trade friction.

政府数据周三显示，美国经济在2024年的基础上比最初评估的要强得多，尽管有关动量持续到2025年的疑问，因为在管理和贸易摩擦的变化之中。

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at a 2.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, revised slightly up from prior estimates of 2.3%, the Commerce Department said. This was largely driven by strong consumer activity during the holiday season.

商务部表示，皇家国内生产总值（GDP）在第四季度以2.4％的年化率扩大，比先前估计的2.3％略有修订。这在很大程度上是由于假期中强大的消费者活动所驱动的。

This strong GDP growth in Q4 2024 was largely driven by a strong 4% rise in consumer spending during the holiday season, alongside increased government expenditures.

在第4季度2024年第4季度，这种强劲的GDP增长在很大程度上是由于假期期间消费者支出增长4％，而政府支出增加。

Inflation, however, remained elevated. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index - the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge - rose at an annual rate of 2.4%, exceeding the Fed’s 2% target.

但是，通货膨胀仍然升高。个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数 - 美联储的首选通货膨胀量表 - 每年增长2.4％，超过美联储的2％目标。

Solid 2024 Growth Tempered by Falling Business Investment

稳定的2024年增长因商业投资下降而恢复

For the entire 2024 year, the economy grew by 2.8%, a slight deceleration from the 2.9% growth observed in 2023.

在整个2024年中，经济增长了2.8％，比2023年观察到的2.9％的增长略有减速。

But despite the overall economic expansion, business investment declined. Corporate spending on equipment dropped sharply by 8.7% during the quarter, suggesting businesses grew increasingly cautious about large capital expenditures late last year.

但是，尽管经济的整体增长，商业投资仍在下降。该季度的公司支出在设备上的支出急剧下降了8.7％，这表明企业对去年年底的大型资本支出越来越谨慎。

The decline in business investment was steeper than the initially estimated 7.6% decrease.

商业投资的下降比最初估计下降7.6％的人数急剧下降。

2025 Outlook: Trump Policies Add Layer of Uncertainty

2025 Outlook：特朗普政策增加了不确定性一层

Now, the question remains if the US will be able to sustain this growth with Donald Trump’s trade policies, federal workforce reductions, and even the pledges of widespread immigrant deportations.

现在，问题仍然是美国是否能够通过唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的贸易政策，降低联邦劳动力，甚至广泛的移民驱逐出境的承诺来维持这种增长。

The tariffs especially could increase inflation and disrupt investment strategies, adding another complex layer to the current economic landscape. Although, at least for the crypto investors, tariffs shouldn’t matter, according to Arthur Hayes.

尤其是关税可能会增加通货膨胀并破坏投资策略，从而为当前的经济格局增加了另一层复杂的一层。亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）表示，至少对于加密投资者而言，关税并不重要。

Inflation, Fed Decisions, Trade Policy Key for 2025 Path

通货膨胀，美联储决定，2025年路径的贸易政策密钥

While this is good news for the US economy, a lot has happened since Q4 2024. The current US trade policies can impact the US economy the most, in addition to having a global impact. In case the tariffs escalate, they could spark retaliatory measures, leading to slower economic growth.

虽然这对美国经济来说是个好消息，但自2024年第四季度以来发生了很多事情。当前的美国贸易政策除了产生全球影响外，还最大。如果关税升级，它们可能会引发报复措施，从而导致经济增长速度降低。

Then, the potential geopolitical tensions might have an influence as well. Ongoing conflicts or supply chain disruptions may increase costs and affect economic stability.

然后，潜在的地缘政治紧张局势也可能产生影响。持续的冲突或供应链中断可能会增加成本并影响经济稳定。

All things considered, going by the report, the US economy outperformed expectations in late 2024, but uncertainty remains for 2025. Inflation trends, Federal Reserve decisions, and the impact of trade policies will play a hugely important role in shaping the economic landscape.

根据报告的所有因素，美国经济在2024年末都超过了预期，但2025年仍然存在不确定性。通货膨胀趋势，美联储的决策和贸易政策的影响将在塑造经济环境中起着非常重要的作用。

If inflation continues to ease, we could see rate cuts that boost economic growth. On the other hand, if trade tensions rise or borrowing costs remain high, a slowdown may be on the horizon.

如果通货膨胀继续缓解，我们可以看到削减经济增长的降低。另一方面，如果贸易紧张局势上升或借贷成本仍然很高，则可能会放缓。

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