比特幣（BTC）避風港狀態面臨現實檢查

比特幣（BTC）長期以來一直被吹捧為“數字黃金”。但是，隨著全球經濟陷入貿易戰緊張局勢的升級

Bitcoin (BTC) has long been touted as “digital gold.” But as the global economy reels from escalating trade war tensions, institutional investors are fleeing to the real thing.

比特幣（BTC）長期以來一直被吹捧為“數字黃金”。但是，隨著全球經濟因貿易戰緊張局勢的升級而引起的，機構投資者逃離了真實的事情。

A recent Bank of America (BofA) survey found that 58% of fund managers view gold as the best-performing haven in a trade war—leaving Bitcoin with only a 3% preference.

美國最近的一項美國銀行（BOFA）調查發現，有58％的基金經理將黃金視為貿易戰中表現最好的避風港，只有3％的偏好將比特幣視為貿易幣。

Bitcoin's Haven Status Faces a Reality Check

比特幣的避風港狀態面臨現實檢查

Gold is proving its dominance as the crisis asset of choice while Bitcoin struggles to hold its ground. This comes amid rising geopolitical risks, the ballooning US deficit, and uncertainty driving capital flight.

黃金證明了它作為首選危機資產的統治地位，而比特幣則努力持有其立場。這是由於地緣政治風險的上升，激烈的美國赤字和不確定性驅動資本飛行。

“In a recent Bank of America survey, 58% of fund managers said gold performs best in a trade war. This compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin,” The Kobeissi Letter noted.

“在最近的一項美國銀行調查中，有58％的基金經理表示，黃金在貿易戰中表現最佳。相比之下，30年期債券的債券僅為9％，比特幣3％，” Kobeissi信件指出。

For years, Bitcoin advocates have championed it as a hedge against economic instability. Yet, in 2025’s volatile macro environment, Bitcoin struggles to earn institutional investors’ full trust.

多年來，比特幣的擁護者一直倡導它作為對沖經濟不穩定的對沖。然而，在2025年的動盪宏觀環境中，比特幣努力贏得機構投資者的完全信任。

The Bank of America survey reflects this status, with long-term US Treasury bonds and even the US dollar losing appeal as trade wars and fiscal dysfunction shake market confidence.

美國銀行的調查反映了這種狀況，隨著貿易戰爭和財政功能障礙的震撼市場信心，美國國債的長期債券甚至美元失去了吸引力。

The US deficit crisis—now projected to exceed $1.8 trillion—has further eroded confidence in traditional safe havens like US Treasuries.

美國的赤字危機（現在預計將超過1.8萬億美元）進一步侵蝕了對像美國國債這樣的傳統安全避風港的信心。

“This is what happens when the global reserve currency no longer behaves as the global reserve currency,” a trader quipped in a post.

“當全球儲備貨幣不再表現為全球儲備貨幣時，這就是發生的事情，”一位交易員在郵政中打趣道。

However, instead of looking to Bitcoin as an alternative, institutions are overwhelmingly choosing gold, doubling physical gold purchases to record levels.

但是，機構並沒有將比特幣視為替代方案，而是壓倒性地選擇黃金，將實際黃金的購買翻了一番。

Barriers To Bitcoin Institutional Adoption

比特幣機構採用的障礙

Despite its fixed supply and decentralization, Bitcoin’s short-term volatility remains a key barrier to institutional adoption as a true safe-haven asset.

儘管比特幣的固定供應和權力下放，但比特幣的短期波動仍然是機構採用作為真正的避風港資產的關鍵障礙。

While some traders still view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value, it lacks the immediate liquidity and risk-averse appeal that gold provides during crises.

儘管一些商人仍然將比特幣視為長期價值存儲，但它缺乏黃金在危機期間提供的直接流動性和規避風險的吸引力。

Further, President Trump is expected to announce sweeping new tariffs on “Liberation Day.” Experts flag the event as a potential trigger for extreme market volatility.

此外，預計特朗普總統將在“解放日”宣布新的關稅。專家將該事件標記為極端市場波動的潛在觸發。

“April 2nd is similar to election night. It is the biggest event of the year by an order of magnitude. 10x more important than any FOMC, which is a lot. And anything can happen, ” Alex Krüger predicted.

“ 4月2日與選舉之夜相似。這是一年中最大的賽事。訂單比任何FOMC都重要的10倍，這一切都可能發生。”AlexKrüger預測。

Trade tensions have historically driven capital into safe-haven assets. With this announcement looming, investors preemptively position themselves again, favouring gold over Bitcoin.

歷史上，貿易緊張局勢將資本驅動到避風港資產中。隨著這一公告的迫在眉睫，投資者再次搶先地定位自己，而偏愛黃金而不是比特幣。

“Gold’s no longer just a hedge against inflation; it’s being treated as the hedge against everything: geopolitical risk, de-globalization, fiscal dysfunction, and now, weaponized trade. When 58% of fund managers say gold is the top performer in a trade war, that’s not just sentiment that’s allocation flow. When even long bonds and the dollar take a back seat, it’s a signal: the old playbook is being rewritten. In a world of rising tariffs, FX tension, and twin deficits, gold might be the only politically neutral store of value left,” trader Billy AU observed.

“黃金不再僅僅是抵制通貨膨脹的樹籬；它被視為對所有事物的籬笆：地緣政治風險，脫落賽，財政功能障礙以及現在的武器貿易。當58％的基金經理人說，黃金是貿易戰爭中的最佳表現時，當時的紐帶和blong blogbbook又是一個人，這是一個既定的紐帶。關稅，外匯緊張局勢和雙重赤字上升，黃金可能是剩下的唯一政治價值存儲。”

Despite Bitcoin’s struggle to capture institutional safe-haven flows in 2025, its long-term narrative remains intact.

儘管比特幣在2025年捕獲機構避風港流動的努力，但其長期敘述仍然完好無損。

Specifically, the global reserve currency system is changing, US debt concerns are mounting, and monetary policies continue to shift. Despite all these, Bitcoin’s value proposition as a censorship-resistant, borderless asset is still relevant.

具體而言，全球儲備貨幣體係正在發生變化，美國債務的問題正在持續，貨幣政策繼續轉移。儘管如此，比特幣的價值主張是一種抗審查制度的無邊界資產。

However, in the short term, its volatility and lack of widespread institutional adoption as a crisis hedge mean gold is taking the lead.

但是，從短期來看，它的波動和缺乏廣泛的機構採用是危機對沖意味著黃金正在領導。

For Bitcoin believers, the key question is not whether Bitcoin will one day challenge gold but how long institutions will adopt it as a flight-to-safety asset.

對於比特幣信徒來說，關鍵問題不是比特幣有一天會挑戰黃金，而是將機構作為安全的資產採用多長時間。

Until then, gold remains the undisputed king in times of economic turmoil. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC exchange-traded funds notwithstanding) fights to prove its place in the next financial paradigm shift.

在此之前，在經濟動盪時期，黃金仍然是無可爭議的國王。同時，儘管有比特幣（BTC交易所貿易資金）努力證明其在下一個金融範式轉變中的地位。

“The ETF demand was real, but some of it was purely for arbitrage…There was a genuine demand for owning BTC, just not as as we were led to believe,” analyst Kyle Chassé said recently.

分析師KyleChassé最近說：“ ETF的需求是真實的，但其中一些純粹是為了套利……對擁有BTC的真正需求不如我們所相信的那樣。”