比特币（BTC）避风港状态面临现实检查

比特币（BTC）长期以来一直被吹捧为“数字黄金”。但是，随着全球经济陷入贸易战紧张局势的升级

Bitcoin (BTC) has long been touted as “digital gold.” But as the global economy reels from escalating trade war tensions, institutional investors are fleeing to the real thing.

比特币（BTC）长期以来一直被吹捧为“数字黄金”。但是，随着全球经济因贸易战紧张局势的升级而引起的，机构投资者逃离了真实的事情。

A recent Bank of America (BofA) survey found that 58% of fund managers view gold as the best-performing haven in a trade war—leaving Bitcoin with only a 3% preference.

美国最近的一项美国银行（BOFA）调查发现，有58％的基金经理将黄金视为贸易战中表现最好的避风港，只有3％的偏好将比特币视为贸易币。

Bitcoin's Haven Status Faces a Reality Check

比特币的避风港状态面临现实检查

Gold is proving its dominance as the crisis asset of choice while Bitcoin struggles to hold its ground. This comes amid rising geopolitical risks, the ballooning US deficit, and uncertainty driving capital flight.

黄金证明了它作为首选危机资产的统治地位，而比特币则努力持有其立场。这是由于地缘政治风险的上升，激烈的美国赤字和不确定性驱动资本飞行。

“In a recent Bank of America survey, 58% of fund managers said gold performs best in a trade war. This compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin,” The Kobeissi Letter noted.

“在最近的一项美国银行调查中，有58％的基金经理表示，黄金在贸易战中表现最佳。相比之下，30年期债券的债券仅为9％，比特币3％，” Kobeissi信件指出。

For years, Bitcoin advocates have championed it as a hedge against economic instability. Yet, in 2025’s volatile macro environment, Bitcoin struggles to earn institutional investors’ full trust.

多年来，比特币的拥护者一直倡导它作为对冲经济不稳定的对冲。然而，在2025年的动荡宏观环境中，比特币努力赢得机构投资者的完全信任。

The Bank of America survey reflects this status, with long-term US Treasury bonds and even the US dollar losing appeal as trade wars and fiscal dysfunction shake market confidence.

美国银行的调查反映了这种状况，随着贸易战争和财政功能障碍的震撼市场信心，美国国债的长期债券甚至美元失去了吸引力。

The US deficit crisis—now projected to exceed $1.8 trillion—has further eroded confidence in traditional safe havens like US Treasuries.

美国的赤字危机（现在预计将超过1.8万亿美元）进一步侵蚀了对像美国国债这样的传统安全避风港的信心。

“This is what happens when the global reserve currency no longer behaves as the global reserve currency,” a trader quipped in a post.

“当全球储备货币不再表现为全球储备货币时，这就是发生的事情，”一位交易员在邮政中打趣道。

However, instead of looking to Bitcoin as an alternative, institutions are overwhelmingly choosing gold, doubling physical gold purchases to record levels.

但是，机构并没有将比特币视为替代方案，而是压倒性地选择黄金，将实际黄金的购买翻了一番。

Barriers To Bitcoin Institutional Adoption

比特币机构采用的障碍

Despite its fixed supply and decentralization, Bitcoin’s short-term volatility remains a key barrier to institutional adoption as a true safe-haven asset.

尽管比特币的固定供应和权力下放，但比特币的短期波动仍然是机构采用作为真正的避风港资产的关键障碍。

While some traders still view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value, it lacks the immediate liquidity and risk-averse appeal that gold provides during crises.

尽管一些商人仍然将比特币视为长期价值存储，但它缺乏黄金在危机期间提供的直接流动性和规避风险的吸引力。

Further, President Trump is expected to announce sweeping new tariffs on “Liberation Day.” Experts flag the event as a potential trigger for extreme market volatility.

此外，预计特朗普总统将在“解放日”宣布新的关税。专家将该事件标记为极端市场波动的潜在触发。

“April 2nd is similar to election night. It is the biggest event of the year by an order of magnitude. 10x more important than any FOMC, which is a lot. And anything can happen, ” Alex Krüger predicted.

“ 4月2日与选举之夜相似。这是一年中最大的赛事。订单比任何FOMC都重要的10倍，这一切都可能发生。”AlexKrüger预测。

Trade tensions have historically driven capital into safe-haven assets. With this announcement looming, investors preemptively position themselves again, favouring gold over Bitcoin.

历史上，贸易紧张局势将资本驱动到避风港资产中。随着这一公告的迫在眉睫，投资者再次抢先地定位自己，而偏爱黄金而不是比特币。

“Gold’s no longer just a hedge against inflation; it’s being treated as the hedge against everything: geopolitical risk, de-globalization, fiscal dysfunction, and now, weaponized trade. When 58% of fund managers say gold is the top performer in a trade war, that’s not just sentiment that’s allocation flow. When even long bonds and the dollar take a back seat, it’s a signal: the old playbook is being rewritten. In a world of rising tariffs, FX tension, and twin deficits, gold might be the only politically neutral store of value left,” trader Billy AU observed.

“黄金不再仅仅是抵制通货膨胀的树篱；它被视为对所有事物的篱笆：地缘政治风险，脱落赛，财政功能障碍以及现在的武器贸易。当58％的基金经理人说，黄金是贸易战争中的最佳表现时，当时的纽带和blong blogbbook又是一个人，这是一个既定的纽带。关税，外汇紧张局势和双重赤字上升，黄金可能是剩下的唯一政治价值存储。”

Despite Bitcoin’s struggle to capture institutional safe-haven flows in 2025, its long-term narrative remains intact.

尽管比特币在2025年捕获机构避风港流动的努力，但其长期叙述仍然完好无损。

Specifically, the global reserve currency system is changing, US debt concerns are mounting, and monetary policies continue to shift. Despite all these, Bitcoin’s value proposition as a censorship-resistant, borderless asset is still relevant.

具体而言，全球储备货币体系正在发生变化，美国债务的问题正在持续，货币政策继续转移。尽管如此，比特币的价值主张是一种抗审查制度的无边界资产。

However, in the short term, its volatility and lack of widespread institutional adoption as a crisis hedge mean gold is taking the lead.

但是，从短期来看，它的波动和缺乏广泛的机构采用是危机对冲意味着黄金正在领导。

For Bitcoin believers, the key question is not whether Bitcoin will one day challenge gold but how long institutions will adopt it as a flight-to-safety asset.

对于比特币信徒来说，关键问题不是比特币有一天会挑战黄金，而是将机构作为安全的资产采用多长时间。

Until then, gold remains the undisputed king in times of economic turmoil. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC exchange-traded funds notwithstanding) fights to prove its place in the next financial paradigm shift.

在此之前，在经济动荡时期，黄金仍然是无可争议的国王。同时，尽管有比特币（BTC交易所贸易资金）努力证明其在下一个金融范式转变中的地位。

“The ETF demand was real, but some of it was purely for arbitrage…There was a genuine demand for owning BTC, just not as as we were led to believe,” analyst Kyle Chassé said recently.

分析师KyleChassé最近说：“ ETF的需求是真实的，但其中一些纯粹是为了套利……对拥有BTC的真正需求不如我们所相信的那样。”