今年加密貨幣會迎來聖誕老人集會嗎？

許多人希望在加密貨幣世界中看到一種現象，即所謂的聖誕老人集會來結束一個財政年度。到目前為止，比特幣(BTC -2.94%)、以太坊(ETH -3.98%) 和狗狗幣(DOGE -6.02%) 的24 小時走勢表明，年底前的這種反彈可能需要更多時間才能實現，或者也許根本不會實現。

Major cryptocurrency prices continued to slide on Friday evening, with Bitcoin dropping below the key $100,000 threshold and Ethereum continuing to hover around $3,300.

週五晚間，主要加密貨幣價格持續下滑，比特幣跌破 10 萬美元關鍵門檻，以太幣繼續徘徊在 3,300 美元左右。

Here's a look at where things stand as of 2:30 p.m. ET:

以下是截至美國東部時間下午 2:30 的情況：

Bitcoin (BTC) is down 3.6% over the last 24 hours, trading at $99,166. BTC prices have ranged from a low of $98,383 to a high of $103,884 over the last 24 hours.

比特幣 (BTC) 在過去 24 小時內下跌 3.6%，交易價格為 99,166 美元。在過去 24 小時內，BTC 價格從最低點 98,383 美元到最高點 103,884 美元。

Ethereum (ETH) has dropped 4.6% over the last 24 hours, priced at $3,311. ETH prices have varied between a low of $3,270 and a high of $3,448.

以太幣 (ETH) 在過去 24 小時內下跌 4.6%，價格為 3,311 美元。 ETH 價格在最低 3,270 美元到最高 3,448 美元之間波動。

Dogecoin (DOGE) prices are down 5.7% over the last 24 hours, priced at $0.31. DOGE prices have ranged from a low of $0.30 to a high of $0.32.

狗狗幣 (DOGE) 價格在過去 24 小時內下跌 5.7%，價格為 0.31 美元。 DOGE 價格從最低 0.30 美元到最高 0.32 美元不等。

Very thin trading volumes in equities and other assets are common around the holidays, and there is a similar phenomenon in the world of crypto. That said, today's selling pressure has been notable, and has once again taken Bitcoin below the key $100,000 threshold, with Ethereum continuing to hover around $3,300 and Dogecoin trading at around $0.31.

假期期間，股票和其他資產的交易量非常少是很常見的，加密貨幣世界也存在類似的現象。也就是說，今天的拋售壓力非常顯著，並再次使比特幣跌破 10 萬美元的關鍵門檻，以太坊繼續徘徊在 3,300 美元左右，狗狗幣交易價格在 0.31 美元左右。

Let's dive into what's driving today's price action in these top digital assets.

讓我們深入探討推動這些頂級數位資產今天價格走勢的因素。

No Santa Claus rally?

沒有聖誕老人集會嗎？

On very low volume, one might not expect to see much in the way of volatility. For stocks, that's been the case today.

在交易量非常低的情況下，人們可能不會期望看到太大的波動。對股票來說，今天就是這樣。

However, some interesting commentary around the potential for higher interest rates to now start detracting from risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) has some investors rethinking their core investing thesis around this asset class. The question for Bitcoin holders is whether this asset is a store of value (like digital gold), or is more of a risk asset. I think the jury's still out on this one, with some investors clearly seeing higher interest rates as a negative for capital flows into more speculative or risky assets, with capital instead flowing into more safe-haven assets to round out the year.

然而，一些關於利率上升的可能性的有趣評論現在開始損害風險資產（包括加密貨幣），這讓一些投資者重新思考他們圍繞這一資產類別的核心投資論點。比特幣持有者面臨的問題是，這種資產是一種價值儲存手段（如數位黃金），還是一種風險資產。我認為這個問題還沒有定論，一些投資者顯然認為利率上升對資本流入更具投機性或風險性的資產不利，而資本反而會在今年流入更多的避險資產。

From a speculation and trading standpoint, it also appears that long derivatives contracts are seeing strong liquidation activity, suggesting that leveraged bets on these three tokens in particular rising in a short amount of time are being unwound. The effects of having so much leverage within the crypto ecosystem can be great on the way up, but this volatility can prove to be a double-edged sword, with big downward price swings possible even on days with relatively low trading volume.

從投機和交易的角度來看，多頭衍生性合約似乎也出現了強勁的清算活動，這表明對這三種代幣的槓桿押注（尤其是在短時間內上漲）正在被平倉。在加密貨幣生態系統中擁有如此大的槓桿作用在上漲過程中可能會產生很大的影響，但這種波動性可能被證明是一把雙刃劍，即使在交易量相對較低的日子裡，價格也可能大幅下跌。

With the dollar remaining very strong, and capital continuing to flow out of most asset classes (including gold) in recent weeks toward money market funds, it's entirely possible Santa is intent on giving all crypto investors a lump of coal over the next week. We'll see.

由於美元仍然非常堅挺，並且最近幾週資本繼續從大多數資產類別（包括黃金）流向貨幣市場基金，聖誕老人完全有可能打算在下週給所有加密貨幣投資者一塊煤炭。我們拭目以待。

What will 2025 bring?

2025年會帶來什麼？

One thing I've learned is that it's impossible to predict with any degree of certainty where a particular asset class will trend over the very short term. However, for most assets, the long-term trajectory tends to be to the upside. And though crypto as a sector has only been around for roughly 15 years, one only has to look at a long-term chart of a token like Bitcoin to get the idea that compounding can take place for a very, very long time.

我學到的一件事是，不可能以任何程度的確定性預測特定資產類別在短期內的趨勢。然而，對於大多數資產來說，長期軌跡往往是向上的。儘管加密貨幣作為一個行業只存在了大約 15 年，但人們只需查看像比特幣這樣的代幣的長期圖表，就能明白複利可以發生非常非常長的時間。