比特幣（BTC）價格預測：隨著市場努力應對相互衝突的力量，比特幣多頭努力重新獲得動力

隨著川普引發的樂觀情緒消散，比特幣的價格面臨著越來越大的挑戰，從 10 萬美元的心理水平跌至接近 94,600 美元的低點

Bitcoin’s price encountered mounting selling pressure on Monday, slipping from the psychological $100,000 level to a low near $94,600 as the Trump-inspired euphoria dissipated from the market. The brief surge following the election of a (for now) crypto-friendly president gave way to a more sobering reality dominated by macroeconomic concerns.

隨著川普引發的樂觀情緒從市場消散，比特幣價格週一遭遇越來越大的拋售壓力，從 10 萬美元的心理水平跌至接近 94,600 美元的低點。在選出一位（目前）對加密貨幣友好的總統後，短暫的飆升讓位給一個由宏觀經濟擔憂主導的更清醒的現實。

Recession fears stemming from New Zealand’s weakening economic indicators compounded global uncertainty alongside persistent inflationary pressures in key economies. The shifting sentiment dampened the bullish momentum seen in Bitcoin earlier this year.

紐西蘭經濟指標疲軟引發的經濟衰退擔憂加劇了全球不確定性，同時主要經濟體持續通膨壓力。這種情緒的轉變削弱了今年稍早比特幣的看漲勢頭。

A recent tweet from Greeks.live highlighted the expiration of 150,000 Bitcoin options on Dec. 27, with a put/call ratio of 0.69 and a max pain point of $85,000.

Greeks.live 最近發布的一條推文強調了 150,000 個比特幣期權於 12 月 27 日到期，看跌/看漲期權比率為 0.69，最大痛點為 85,000 美元。

The accompanying chart of open interest distribution revealed a significant bullish tilt, suggesting optimistic positioning by traders. However, exchange net flows (positive inflow dominance on Dec. 27) painted a cautionary picture, signaling potential near-term sell pressure as BTC flooded exchanges.

隨附的未平倉合約分佈圖顯示出明顯的看漲傾向，顯示交易者持樂觀態度。然而，交易所淨流量（12 月 27 日的正流入占主導地位）描繪了一幅警示圖，表明隨著 BTC 湧入交易所，短期內可能出現拋售壓力。

The mixed signals underscored a market grappling with conflicting forces: lingering optimism for long-term gains tempered by immediate concerns of profit-taking and broader macroeconomic challenges.

這些喜憂參半的訊號凸顯了市場正在應對相互衝突的力量：對長期收益的樂觀情緒揮之不去，而對獲利了結和更廣泛的宏觀經濟挑戰的直接擔憂削弱了這種樂觀情緒。

Bearish Headwinds from On-Chain Data – Are Bulls Losing Steam?

鏈上數據帶來的利空阻力－多頭正在失去動力嗎？

The on-chain charts presented a narrative fraught with short-term bearish pressure despite pockets of long-term resilience. Exchange Netflow data revealed a concerning uptick in green bars, indicating sustained Bitcoin inflows to exchanges.

儘管存在長期彈性，但鏈上圖表呈現出充滿短期看跌壓力的敘述。交易所 Netflow 數據顯示，綠色長條出現令人擔憂的上升，顯示比特幣持續流入交易所。

Cryptoquant data suggested heightened sell pressure, particularly as traders moved assets to platforms, potentially preparing for liquidation. The Dec. 27 positive netflow aligned with broader year-end selling trends, compounding bearish sentiment.

Cryptoquant 數據顯示拋售壓力加大，特別是當交易者將資產轉移到平台，可能準備清算時。 12 月 27 日的正淨流量與更廣泛的年終拋售趨勢一致，加劇了看跌情緒。

The narrative sharpened by comparing the exchange flow data with the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. The MVRV ratio had retraced from its recent peak of 2.8, signaling that Bitcoin may have entered an overbought phase.

透過將交易流量數據與市場價值與已實現價值 (MVRV) 比率進行比較，敘述變得更加清晰。 MVRV 比率已從近期高峰 2.8 回落，顯示比特幣可能已進入超買階段。

Declining MVRV suggested reduced market profitability, which could trigger further corrections as over-leveraged traders unwound positions.

MVRV 下降表明市場盈利能力下降，這可能會因槓桿過高的交易者平倉而引發進一步調整。

Although currently neutral, the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) experienced occasional spikes, suggesting a rise in miner sales. Historically, miners are strategic sellers, and their recent liquidation of some holdings in response to price volatility added pressure to the supply side.

儘管目前呈中性，但礦工頭寸指數 (MPI) 偶爾會出現峰值，表明礦工銷量上升。從歷史上看，礦商都是戰略賣家，他們最近為應對價格波動而清算了部分持股，這給供應方帶來了壓力。

However, bears must remain cautious. Greeks.live’s data showed a dominant call positioning in options, hinting at underlying bullish sentiment among institutional traders. Additionally, exchange outflows earlier in the month highlighted accumulation trends that could resurface as the macro environment stabilized.

然而，空頭必須保持謹慎。 Greeks.live 的數據顯示，看漲期權占主導地位，暗示機構交易者潛在看漲情緒。此外，本月稍早的外匯流出凸顯了隨著宏觀環境穩定而可能重新出現的累積趨勢。

Hence, while short-term indicators leaned bearish, the interplay between netflows, MVRV, and MPI revealed a complex market. Bulls, though subdued, still had latent potential to reignite momentum, making this a precarious time for bears to grow complacent. As such, retail traders would likely watch their step before entering the market, waiting for clearer signals from either Bitcoin whales or the wider market.

因此，雖然短期指標傾向於看跌，但淨流量、MVRV 和 MPI 之間的相互作用揭示了一個複雜的市場。多頭雖然受到抑制，但仍具有重新點燃勢頭的潛在潛力，這使得空頭變得自鳴得意。因此，零售交易者可能會在進入市場之前謹慎行事，等待比特幣鯨魚或更廣泛市場發出更清晰的訊號。

EMA Resistance Has Bulls Struggling

EMA 阻力讓多頭陷入困境

The BTC/USD pair’s 20-day EMA (red) trendline acted as a dynamic resistance for the trading pair since Dec. 19, and so far, the bulls had no clue as to how to flip it into support. BTC price’s little sojourn above the trendline on Dec. 25 was immediately rebuffed, and the token traded near $96,300 on Dec. 27.

自 12 月 19 日以來，BTC/USD 貨幣對的 20 日均線（紅色）趨勢線一直是該交易對的動態阻力，到目前為止，多頭不知道如何將其轉變為支撐位。 12 月 25 日，比特幣價格在趨勢線上方小幅停留，但立即遭到拒絕，該代幣在 12 月 27 日交易價格接近 96,300 美元。

A breakout above the EMA resistance level could pave the way toward $104,400, a resistance level aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Historically, this level has been a pivotal point during corrections. Beyond this, $116,700 and $132,000 stood as the next major resistance zones, highlighting the challenges for bullish momentum.

突破 EMA 阻力位可能會為 104,400 美元鋪平道路，該阻力位與 0.618 斐波那契回檔位一致。從歷史上看，該水平一直是調整期間的關鍵點。除此之外，116,700 美元和 132,000 美元是下一個主要阻力區，凸顯了看漲勢頭的挑戰。

On the downside, the 50-day EMA (purple) served as the immediate support level. Below this, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement support near $87,400 became critical. The volume profile showed strong buying interest at this level, making it a key support zone for bulls. A break below $87,400 could lead to a decline toward $77,300, another key level supported by historical buyer interest.

下檔方面，50 日均線（紫色）作為直接支撐位。低於此水平，接近 87,400 美元的 0.382 斐波那契回撤支撐位變得至關重要。成交量顯示出該水平的強勁買盤興趣，使其成為多頭的關鍵支撐區域。跌破 87,400 美元可能會導致跌向 77,300 美元，這是歷史買家興趣支撐的另一個關鍵水平。

The volume profile also revealed reduced activity between $95,000 and $100,000, suggesting that price movements here could be swift and volatile.

成交量概況還顯示，活動減少在 95,000 美元至 100,000 美元之間，表明這裡的價格變動可能會迅速且波動。

The RSI at 47.87 reflected neutral momentum.

RSI 為 47.87，反映出中性動能。