比特币（BTC）价格预测：随着市场努力应对相互冲突的力量，比特币多头努力重新获得动力

随着特朗普引发的乐观情绪消散，比特币的价格面临着越来越大的挑战，从 100,000 美元的心理水平跌至接近 94,600 美元的低点

Bitcoin’s price encountered mounting selling pressure on Monday, slipping from the psychological $100,000 level to a low near $94,600 as the Trump-inspired euphoria dissipated from the market. The brief surge following the election of a (for now) crypto-friendly president gave way to a more sobering reality dominated by macroeconomic concerns.

随着特朗普引发的乐观情绪从市场消散，比特币价格周一遭遇越来越大的抛售压力，从 100,000 美元的心理水平跌至接近 94,600 美元的低点。在选出一位（目前）对加密货币友好的总统后，短暂的飙升让位于一个由宏观经济担忧主导的更加清醒的现实。

Recession fears stemming from New Zealand’s weakening economic indicators compounded global uncertainty alongside persistent inflationary pressures in key economies. The shifting sentiment dampened the bullish momentum seen in Bitcoin earlier this year.

新西兰经济指标疲软引发的经济衰退担忧加剧了全球不确定性，同时主要经济体持续存在通胀压力。这种情绪的转变削弱了今年早些时候比特币的看涨势头。

A recent tweet from Greeks.live highlighted the expiration of 150,000 Bitcoin options on Dec. 27, with a put/call ratio of 0.69 and a max pain point of $85,000.

Greeks.live 最近发布的一条推文强调了 150,000 个比特币期权于 12 月 27 日到期，看跌/看涨期权比率为 0.69，最大痛点为 85,000 美元。

The accompanying chart of open interest distribution revealed a significant bullish tilt, suggesting optimistic positioning by traders. However, exchange net flows (positive inflow dominance on Dec. 27) painted a cautionary picture, signaling potential near-term sell pressure as BTC flooded exchanges.

随附的未平仓合约分布图显示出明显的看涨倾向，表明交易者持乐观态度。然而，交易所净流量（12 月 27 日的正流入占主导地位）描绘了一幅警示图，表明随着 BTC 涌入交易所，短期内可能出现抛售压力。

The mixed signals underscored a market grappling with conflicting forces: lingering optimism for long-term gains tempered by immediate concerns of profit-taking and broader macroeconomic challenges.

这些喜忧参半的信号凸显了市场正在应对相互冲突的力量：对长期收益的乐观情绪挥之不去，而对获利了结和更广泛的宏观经济挑战的直接担忧削弱了这种乐观情绪。

Bearish Headwinds from On-Chain Data – Are Bulls Losing Steam?

链上数据带来的利空阻力——多头正在失去动力吗？

The on-chain charts presented a narrative fraught with short-term bearish pressure despite pockets of long-term resilience. Exchange Netflow data revealed a concerning uptick in green bars, indicating sustained Bitcoin inflows to exchanges.

尽管存在长期弹性，但链上图表呈现出充满短期看跌压力的叙述。交易所 Netflow 数据显示，绿色条形出现令人担忧的上升，表明比特币持续流入交易所。

Cryptoquant data suggested heightened sell pressure, particularly as traders moved assets to platforms, potentially preparing for liquidation. The Dec. 27 positive netflow aligned with broader year-end selling trends, compounding bearish sentiment.

Cryptoquant 数据显示抛售压力加大，特别是当交易者将资产转移到平台，可能准备清算时。 12 月 27 日的正净流量与更广泛的年终抛售趋势一致，加剧了看跌情绪。

The narrative sharpened by comparing the exchange flow data with the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. The MVRV ratio had retraced from its recent peak of 2.8, signaling that Bitcoin may have entered an overbought phase.

通过将交易流量数据与市场价值与已实现价值 (MVRV) 比率进行比较，叙述变得更加清晰。 MVRV 比率已从近期峰值 2.8 回落，表明比特币可能已进入超买阶段。

Declining MVRV suggested reduced market profitability, which could trigger further corrections as over-leveraged traders unwound positions.

MVRV 下降表明市场盈利能力下降，这可能会因杠杆过高的交易者平仓而引发进一步调整。

Although currently neutral, the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) experienced occasional spikes, suggesting a rise in miner sales. Historically, miners are strategic sellers, and their recent liquidation of some holdings in response to price volatility added pressure to the supply side.

尽管目前呈中性，但矿工头寸指数 (MPI) 偶尔会出现峰值，表明矿工销量有所上升。从历史上看，矿商都是战略卖家，他们最近为应对价格波动而清算了部分持股，这给供应方带来了压力。

However, bears must remain cautious. Greeks.live’s data showed a dominant call positioning in options, hinting at underlying bullish sentiment among institutional traders. Additionally, exchange outflows earlier in the month highlighted accumulation trends that could resurface as the macro environment stabilized.

然而，空头必须保持谨慎。 Greeks.live 的数据显示，期权看涨头寸占主导地位，暗示机构交易者潜在的看涨情绪。此外，本月早些时候的外汇流出凸显了随着宏观环境稳定而可能重新出现的积累趋势。

Hence, while short-term indicators leaned bearish, the interplay between netflows, MVRV, and MPI revealed a complex market. Bulls, though subdued, still had latent potential to reignite momentum, making this a precarious time for bears to grow complacent. As such, retail traders would likely watch their step before entering the market, waiting for clearer signals from either Bitcoin whales or the wider market.

因此，虽然短期指标倾向于看跌，但净流量、MVRV 和 MPI 之间的相互作用揭示了一个复杂的市场。多头虽然受到抑制，但仍具有重新点燃势头的潜在潜力，这使得空头变得自鸣得意。因此，零售交易者可能会在进入市场之前谨慎行事，等待比特币鲸鱼或更广泛市场发出更清晰的信号。

EMA Resistance Has Bulls Struggling

EMA 阻力使多头陷入困境

The BTC/USD pair’s 20-day EMA (red) trendline acted as a dynamic resistance for the trading pair since Dec. 19, and so far, the bulls had no clue as to how to flip it into support. BTC price’s little sojourn above the trendline on Dec. 25 was immediately rebuffed, and the token traded near $96,300 on Dec. 27.

自 12 月 19 日以来，BTC/USD 货币对的 20 日均线（红色）趋势线一直是该交易对的动态阻力，到目前为止，多头不知道如何将其转变为支撑位。 12 月 25 日，比特币价格在趋势线上方小幅停留，但立即遭到拒绝，该代币在 12 月 27 日交易价格接近 96,300 美元。

A breakout above the EMA resistance level could pave the way toward $104,400, a resistance level aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Historically, this level has been a pivotal point during corrections. Beyond this, $116,700 and $132,000 stood as the next major resistance zones, highlighting the challenges for bullish momentum.

突破 EMA 阻力位可能会为 104,400 美元铺平道路，该阻力位与 0.618 斐波那契回撤位一致。从历史上看，该水平一直是调整期间的关键点。除此之外，116,700 美元和 132,000 美元是下一个主要阻力区，凸显了看涨势头的挑战。

On the downside, the 50-day EMA (purple) served as the immediate support level. Below this, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement support near $87,400 became critical. The volume profile showed strong buying interest at this level, making it a key support zone for bulls. A break below $87,400 could lead to a decline toward $77,300, another key level supported by historical buyer interest.

下行方面，50 日均线（紫色）作为直接支撑位。低于此水平，接近 87,400 美元的 0.382 斐波那契回撤支撑位变得至关重要。成交量显示出该水平的强劲买盘兴趣，使其成为多头的关键支撑区域。跌破 87,400 美元可能会导致跌向 77,300 美元，这是历史买家兴趣支撑的另一个关键水平。

The volume profile also revealed reduced activity between $95,000 and $100,000, suggesting that price movements here could be swift and volatile.

成交量概况还显示，活动减少在 95,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间，表明这里的价格变动可能会迅速且波动。

The RSI at 47.87 reflected neutral momentum.

RSI 为 47.87，反映出中性势头。