今年加密货币会迎来圣诞老人集会吗？

许多人希望在加密货币世界中看到一种现象，即所谓的圣诞老人集会来结束一个财政年度。到目前为止，比特币 (BTC -2.94%)、以太坊 (ETH -3.98%) 和狗狗币 (DOGE -6.02%) 的 24 小时走势表明，年底前的这种反弹可能需要更多时间才能实现，或者也许根本不会实现。

Major cryptocurrency prices continued to slide on Friday evening, with Bitcoin dropping below the key $100,000 threshold and Ethereum continuing to hover around $3,300.

周五晚间，主要加密货币价格继续下滑，比特币跌破 10 万美元关键门槛，以太坊继续徘徊在 3,300 美元左右。

Here's a look at where things stand as of 2:30 p.m. ET:

以下是截至美国东部时间下午 2:30 的情况：

Bitcoin (BTC) is down 3.6% over the last 24 hours, trading at $99,166. BTC prices have ranged from a low of $98,383 to a high of $103,884 over the last 24 hours.

比特币 (BTC) 在过去 24 小时内下跌 3.6%，交易价格为 99,166 美元。过去 24 小时内，BTC 价格从最低点 98,383 美元到最高点 103,884 美元。

Ethereum (ETH) has dropped 4.6% over the last 24 hours, priced at $3,311. ETH prices have varied between a low of $3,270 and a high of $3,448.

以太坊 (ETH) 在过去 24 小时内下跌 4.6%，价格为 3,311 美元。 ETH 价格在最低 3,270 美元到最高 3,448 美元之间波动。

Dogecoin (DOGE) prices are down 5.7% over the last 24 hours, priced at $0.31. DOGE prices have ranged from a low of $0.30 to a high of $0.32.

狗狗币 (DOGE) 价格在过去 24 小时内下跌 5.7%，价格为 0.31 美元。 DOGE 价格从最低 0.30 美元到最高 0.32 美元不等。

Very thin trading volumes in equities and other assets are common around the holidays, and there is a similar phenomenon in the world of crypto. That said, today's selling pressure has been notable, and has once again taken Bitcoin below the key $100,000 threshold, with Ethereum continuing to hover around $3,300 and Dogecoin trading at around $0.31.

假期期间，股票和其他资产的交易量非常少是很常见的，加密货币世界也存在类似的现象。也就是说，今天的抛售压力非常显着，并再次使比特币跌破 100,000 美元的关键门槛，以太坊继续徘徊在 3,300 美元左右，狗狗币交易价格在 0.31 美元左右。

Let's dive into what's driving today's price action in these top digital assets.

让我们深入探讨推动这些顶级数字资产今天价格走势的因素。

No Santa Claus rally?

没有圣诞老人集会吗？

On very low volume, one might not expect to see much in the way of volatility. For stocks, that's been the case today.

在交易量非常低的情况下，人们可能不会期望看到太大的波动。对于股票来说，今天就是这样。

However, some interesting commentary around the potential for higher interest rates to now start detracting from risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) has some investors rethinking their core investing thesis around this asset class. The question for Bitcoin holders is whether this asset is a store of value (like digital gold), or is more of a risk asset. I think the jury's still out on this one, with some investors clearly seeing higher interest rates as a negative for capital flows into more speculative or risky assets, with capital instead flowing into more safe-haven assets to round out the year.

然而，一些关于利率上升的可能性的有趣评论现在开始损害风险资产（包括加密货币），这让一些投资者重新思考他们围绕这一资产类别的核心投资论点。比特币持有者面临的问题是，这种资产是一种价值储存手段（如数字黄金），还是一种风险资产。我认为这个问题还没有定论，一些投资者显然认为利率上升对资本流入更具投机性或风险性的资产不利，而资本反而会在今年流入更多的避险资产。

From a speculation and trading standpoint, it also appears that long derivatives contracts are seeing strong liquidation activity, suggesting that leveraged bets on these three tokens in particular rising in a short amount of time are being unwound. The effects of having so much leverage within the crypto ecosystem can be great on the way up, but this volatility can prove to be a double-edged sword, with big downward price swings possible even on days with relatively low trading volume.

从投机和交易的角度来看，多头衍生品合约似乎也出现了强劲的清算活动，这表明对这三种代币的杠杆押注（尤其是在短时间内上涨）正在被平仓。在加密货币生态系统中拥有如此大的杠杆作用在上涨过程中可能会产生很大的影响，但这种波动性可能被证明是一把双刃剑，即使在交易量相对较低的日子里，价格也可能出现大幅下跌。

With the dollar remaining very strong, and capital continuing to flow out of most asset classes (including gold) in recent weeks toward money market funds, it's entirely possible Santa is intent on giving all crypto investors a lump of coal over the next week. We'll see.

由于美元仍然非常坚挺，并且最近几周资本继续从大多数资产类别（包括黄金）流向货币市场基金，圣诞老人完全有可能打算在下周给所有加密货币投资者一块煤炭。我们拭目以待。

What will 2025 bring?

2025年会带来什么？

One thing I've learned is that it's impossible to predict with any degree of certainty where a particular asset class will trend over the very short term. However, for most assets, the long-term trajectory tends to be to the upside. And though crypto as a sector has only been around for roughly 15 years, one only has to look at a long-term chart of a token like Bitcoin to get the idea that compounding can take place for a very, very long time.

我学到的一件事是，不可能以任何程度的确定性预测特定资产类别在短期内的趋势。然而，对于大多数资产来说，长期轨迹往往是向上的。尽管加密货币作为一个行业只存在了大约 15 年，但人们只需查看像比特币这样的代币的长期图表，就能明白复利可以发生非常非常长的时间。