Will Crypto Get a Santa Claus Rally This Year?

A so-called Santa Claus rally to round out a fiscal year is a phenomenon many are hoping to see play out in the crypto world. Thus far, the 24-hour moves seen in Bitcoin (BTC -2.94%), Ethereum (ETH -3.98%) and Dogecoin (DOGE -6.02%) indicate that such a rally toward year-end may take additional time to materialize, or perhaps not materialize at all.

Major cryptocurrency prices continued to slide on Friday evening, with Bitcoin dropping below the key $100,000 threshold and Ethereum continuing to hover around $3,300.

Here's a look at where things stand as of 2:30 p.m. ET:

Bitcoin (BTC) is down 3.6% over the last 24 hours, trading at $99,166. BTC prices have ranged from a low of $98,383 to a high of $103,884 over the last 24 hours.

Ethereum (ETH) has dropped 4.6% over the last 24 hours, priced at $3,311. ETH prices have varied between a low of $3,270 and a high of $3,448.

Dogecoin (DOGE) prices are down 5.7% over the last 24 hours, priced at $0.31. DOGE prices have ranged from a low of $0.30 to a high of $0.32.

Very thin trading volumes in equities and other assets are common around the holidays, and there is a similar phenomenon in the world of crypto. That said, today's selling pressure has been notable, and has once again taken Bitcoin below the key $100,000 threshold, with Ethereum continuing to hover around $3,300 and Dogecoin trading at around $0.31.

Let's dive into what's driving today's price action in these top digital assets.

No Santa Claus rally?

On very low volume, one might not expect to see much in the way of volatility. For stocks, that's been the case today.

However, some interesting commentary around the potential for higher interest rates to now start detracting from risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) has some investors rethinking their core investing thesis around this asset class. The question for Bitcoin holders is whether this asset is a store of value (like digital gold), or is more of a risk asset. I think the jury's still out on this one, with some investors clearly seeing higher interest rates as a negative for capital flows into more speculative or risky assets, with capital instead flowing into more safe-haven assets to round out the year.

From a speculation and trading standpoint, it also appears that long derivatives contracts are seeing strong liquidation activity, suggesting that leveraged bets on these three tokens in particular rising in a short amount of time are being unwound. The effects of having so much leverage within the crypto ecosystem can be great on the way up, but this volatility can prove to be a double-edged sword, with big downward price swings possible even on days with relatively low trading volume.

With the dollar remaining very strong, and capital continuing to flow out of most asset classes (including gold) in recent weeks toward money market funds, it's entirely possible Santa is intent on giving all crypto investors a lump of coal over the next week. We'll see.

What will 2025 bring?

One thing I've learned is that it's impossible to predict with any degree of certainty where a particular asset class will trend over the very short term. However, for most assets, the long-term trajectory tends to be to the upside. And though crypto as a sector has only been around for roughly 15 years, one only has to look at a long-term chart of a token like Bitcoin to get the idea that compounding can take place for a very, very long time.