中國即將進一步放寬貨幣政策

幾個月來，中國人民銀行（PBOC）一直在發出支持貨幣寬鬆的明確訊號。

Major central banks are making strategic decisions that will impact the financial markets in the coming months. After the U.S. Federal Reserve began cutting its key rates last September, it is now the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) that is set to take over. Beijing plans a new cut in interest rates to stimulate the economy and counter the increased deflation of the yuan, a phenomenon that worries Chinese authorities and weighs on investor confidence.

主要央行正在製定將在未來幾個月影響金融市場的策略決策。去年九月聯準會開始下調關鍵利率後，現在將由中國人民銀行（PBOC）接手。北京計劃再次降息以刺激經濟並應對人民幣通貨緊縮加劇，這一現象令中國當局擔憂並打壓投資者信心。

In light of this situation, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and macroeconomic analyst, anticipates a chain reaction in the financial markets. He asserts that the combination of a more flexible monetary policy in China and a favorable environment in the United States will enhance the appeal of alternative assets, particularly bitcoin and cryptos. According to him, this injection of liquidity, combined with a reallocation of institutional capital, could trigger a massive rally in the crypto market during this year 2025.

鑑於這種情況，BitMEX 聯合創始人兼宏觀經濟分析師 Arthur Hayes 預計金融市場將出現連鎖反應。他斷言，中國更靈活的貨幣政策和美國有利的環境相結合，將增強另類資產的吸引力，特別是比特幣和加密貨幣。他表示，這種流動性的注入，再加上機構資本的重新分配，可能會在 2025 年引發加密貨幣市場的大規模反彈。

China on the verge of further easing its monetary policy

中國即將進一步放寬貨幣政策

For several months, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has been sending clear signals in favor of monetary easing. During its fourth-quarter meeting, the institution confirmed, in a statement released on Friday, January 3, 2025, its intention to once again reduce its key rates as well as the required reserve ratio for banks. This announcement fits into a strategy aimed at boosting the economy, as Chinese growth shows signs of weakness.

幾個月來，中國人民銀行（PBOC）一直在發出支持貨幣寬鬆的明確訊號。在第四季會議上，該機構在 2025 年 1 月 3 日星期五發布的聲明中確認，有意再次降低關鍵利率以及銀行存款準備率。隨著中國經濟成長出現疲軟跡象，這項聲明符合旨在提振經濟的策略。

This monetary shift can be explained by several factors. For several quarters, domestic demand in China has been weakening, impacting consumption and investments. To counter this dynamic, the PBOC had already cut its rates last September, lowering them from 1.7 % to 1.5 %. However, these measures prove insufficient in the face of sustained deflation of the yuan, which increases the debt burden for many businesses. In a new statement, the central bank stated that these adjustments would occur “in due time,” as it emphasizes the necessity of supporting credit and preventing excessive contraction in the real estate and financial markets.

這種貨幣轉變可以用幾個因素來解釋。幾個季度以來，中國的內需一直疲軟，影響了消費和投資。為了因應這種動態，中國央行去年 9 月就已經降息，從 1.7% 降至 1.5%。然而，面對人民幣持續通貨緊縮，這些措施被證明是不夠的，人民幣持續通貨緊縮增加了許多企業的債務負擔。央行在一份新聲明中表示，這些調整將「適時」進行，因為它強調了支持信貸並防止房地產和金融市場過度收縮的必要性。

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve is adopting a similar stance. After a phase of monetary tightening aimed at containing inflation, the Fed began a cycle of rate reductions in September 2024. This convergence between the monetary policies of the two largest global economic powers strengthens expectations of a more favorable environment for risky and alternative assets, including cryptos. Many observers believe that this injection of liquidity could benefit bitcoin, by enhancing its attractiveness as a store of value amidst fluctuations of traditional currencies.

與此同時，聯準會也採取了類似的立場。經過一段旨在遏制通膨的貨幣緊縮階段後，聯準會於2024 年9 月開始了降息週期。包括加密貨幣。許多觀察家認為，這種流動性的注入可能有利於比特幣，增強其在傳統貨幣波動中作為價值儲存手段的吸引力。

Bitcoin at the forefront of this injection of liquidity

比特幣處於流動性注入的最前沿

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, sees in this Chinese monetary easing a major opportunity for the crypto market. According to him, the reduction of key rates in China will favor a massive influx of capital towards safe havens, notably gold and bitcoin. He explains that in a context of devaluation of fiat currencies, investors will seek to protect their capital by choosing alternative assets.

BitMEX 聯合創辦人 Arthur Hayes 認為中國的貨幣寬鬆政策是加密貨幣市場的重大機會。他表示，中國關鍵利率的降低將有利於大量資本湧入避險資產，特別是黃金和比特幣。他解釋說，在法定貨幣貶值的背景下，投資者將透過選擇另類資產來尋求保護自己的資本。

In a post published on Medium, he elaborates on this analysis and claims that “when China deploys its monetary bazooka, American institutional investors will have no choice but to buy Bitcoin ETFs.” He considers that bitcoin now represents “the most performing asset against the devaluation of fiat currencies,” a reality that large fund managers can no longer ignore. This statement is based on a key observation: the recent rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve have already led to a significant increase in the price of bitcoin.

他在 Medium 上發表的一篇文章中詳細闡述了這一分析，並聲稱“當中國部署其貨幣火箭筒時，美國機構投資者將別無選擇，只能購買比特幣 ETF。”他認為比特幣現在代表了“對抗法定貨幣貶值的表現最好的資產”，這是大型基金經理人不能再忽視的現實。這項聲明基於一個關鍵觀察：聯準會最近的降息已經導致比特幣價格大幅上漲。

Last September, after the announcement of the first monetary easing by the Fed, bitcoin surpassed the $60,000 mark, which marks a resurgence of interest in this asset. Since then, the crypto has reached a record of $100,000, a rise largely attributed to its status as a store of value amidst monetary uncertainties. Hayes also highlights that this dynamic is accompanied by an increase in inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs and a rising Coinbase Premium Index, two indicators showing a massive return of institutional investors to crypto.

去年9月，聯準會宣布首次貨幣寬鬆後，比特幣突破了6萬美元大關，這標誌著人們對這項資產的興趣重新抬頭。此後，加密貨幣的價格達到了 10 萬美元的紀錄，這一上漲很大程度上歸因於其在貨幣不確定性中作為價值儲存手段的地位。 Hayes 也強調，這種動態伴隨著美國比特幣 ETF 流入量的增加和 Coinbase 溢價指數的上升，這兩個指標顯示機構投資者大量回歸加密貨幣。

If Arthur Hayes’ predictions come to fruition, 2025 could be a historic turning point for bitcoin and the entire crypto market. The increase in inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs and the progression of the Coinbase Premium Index already confirm a growing interest from institutional investors. However, several uncertainties remain. The regulation of cryptos remains a key variable, and a tightening of policies could hinder this bullish momentum. Moreover, a rebound in inflation could force central banks to revise their monetary strategy, thus limiting the impact of available liquidity. The economic tensions between China and the United States add a geopolitical dimension that could influence investors’ appetite for risky assets. Despite these uncertainties, a trend is emerging: bitcoin is increasingly establishing itself as an essential asset in global macroeconomic strategies. As central banks adjust their policies, crypto could play a central role in redefining global financial balances.

如果 Arthur Hayes 的預測成為現實，2025 年可能成為比特幣和整個加密市場的歷史性轉折點。流入美國比特幣 ETF 的資金增加以及 Coinbase 溢價指數的進展已經證實了機構投資者的興趣日益濃厚。然而，仍然存在一些不確定性。加密貨幣的監管仍然是一個關鍵變量，政策收緊可能會阻礙這種看漲勢頭。此外，通膨反彈可能迫使央行修改貨幣策略，從而限制可用流動性的影響。中美之間的經濟緊張局勢增加了地緣政治因素，可能會影響投資者對風險資產的興趣。儘管存在這些不確定性，但一種趨勢正在出現：比特幣日益成為全球宏觀經濟策略中的重要資產。隨著各國央行調整政策，加密貨幣可能在重新定義全球金融平衡方面發揮核心作用。

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