中国即将进一步放松货币政策

几个月来，中国人民银行（PBOC）一直在发出支持货币宽松的明确信号。

Major central banks are making strategic decisions that will impact the financial markets in the coming months. After the U.S. Federal Reserve began cutting its key rates last September, it is now the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) that is set to take over. Beijing plans a new cut in interest rates to stimulate the economy and counter the increased deflation of the yuan, a phenomenon that worries Chinese authorities and weighs on investor confidence.

主要央行正在制定将在未来几个月影响金融市场的战略决策。去年九月美联储开始下调关键利率后，现在将由中国人民银行（PBOC）接手。北京计划再次降息以刺激经济并应对人民币通货紧缩加剧，这一现象令中国当局担忧并打压投资者信心。

In light of this situation, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and macroeconomic analyst, anticipates a chain reaction in the financial markets. He asserts that the combination of a more flexible monetary policy in China and a favorable environment in the United States will enhance the appeal of alternative assets, particularly bitcoin and cryptos. According to him, this injection of liquidity, combined with a reallocation of institutional capital, could trigger a massive rally in the crypto market during this year 2025.

鉴于这种情况，BitMEX 联合创始人兼宏观经济分析师 Arthur Hayes 预计金融市场将出现连锁反应。他断言，中国更加灵活的货币政策和美国有利的环境相结合，将增强另类资产的吸引力，特别是比特币和加密货币。他表示，这种流动性的注入，再加上机构资本的重新分配，可能会在 2025 年引发加密货币市场的大规模反弹。

China on the verge of further easing its monetary policy

中国即将进一步放松货币政策

For several months, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has been sending clear signals in favor of monetary easing. During its fourth-quarter meeting, the institution confirmed, in a statement released on Friday, January 3, 2025, its intention to once again reduce its key rates as well as the required reserve ratio for banks. This announcement fits into a strategy aimed at boosting the economy, as Chinese growth shows signs of weakness.

几个月来，中国人民银行（PBOC）一直在发出支持货币宽松的明确信号。在第四季度会议上，该机构在 2025 年 1 月 3 日星期五发布的声明中确认，有意再次降低关键利率以及银行存款准备金率。随着中国经济增长出现疲软迹象，这一声明符合旨在提振经济的战略。

This monetary shift can be explained by several factors. For several quarters, domestic demand in China has been weakening, impacting consumption and investments. To counter this dynamic, the PBOC had already cut its rates last September, lowering them from 1.7 % to 1.5 %. However, these measures prove insufficient in the face of sustained deflation of the yuan, which increases the debt burden for many businesses. In a new statement, the central bank stated that these adjustments would occur “in due time,” as it emphasizes the necessity of supporting credit and preventing excessive contraction in the real estate and financial markets.

这种货币转变可以用几个因素来解释。几个季度以来，中国的内需一直疲软，影响了消费和投资。为了应对这种动态，中国央行去年 9 月就已经降息，从 1.7% 降至 1.5%。然而，面对人民币持续通货紧缩，这些措施被证明是不够的，人民币持续通货紧缩增加了许多企业的债务负担。央行在一份新声明中表示，这些调整将“适时”进行，因为它强调了支持信贷并防止房地产和金融市场过度收缩的必要性。

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve is adopting a similar stance. After a phase of monetary tightening aimed at containing inflation, the Fed began a cycle of rate reductions in September 2024. This convergence between the monetary policies of the two largest global economic powers strengthens expectations of a more favorable environment for risky and alternative assets, including cryptos. Many observers believe that this injection of liquidity could benefit bitcoin, by enhancing its attractiveness as a store of value amidst fluctuations of traditional currencies.

与此同时，美联储也采取了类似的立场。经过一段旨在遏制通胀的货币紧缩阶段后，美联储于 2024 年 9 月开始了降息周期。全球最大的两个经济大国货币政策的趋同增强了人们对风险资产和另类资产更有利的环境的预期，包括加密货币。许多观察家认为，这种流动性的注入可能有利于比特币，增强其在传统货币波动中作为价值储存手段的吸引力。

Bitcoin at the forefront of this injection of liquidity

比特币处于流动性注入的最前沿

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, sees in this Chinese monetary easing a major opportunity for the crypto market. According to him, the reduction of key rates in China will favor a massive influx of capital towards safe havens, notably gold and bitcoin. He explains that in a context of devaluation of fiat currencies, investors will seek to protect their capital by choosing alternative assets.

BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 认为中国的货币宽松政策是加密货币市场的重大机遇。他表示，中国关键利率的降低将有利于大量资本涌入避险资产，特别是黄金和比特币。他解释说，在法定货币贬值的背景下，投资者将通过选择另类资产来寻求保护自己的资本。

In a post published on Medium, he elaborates on this analysis and claims that “when China deploys its monetary bazooka, American institutional investors will have no choice but to buy Bitcoin ETFs.” He considers that bitcoin now represents “the most performing asset against the devaluation of fiat currencies,” a reality that large fund managers can no longer ignore. This statement is based on a key observation: the recent rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve have already led to a significant increase in the price of bitcoin.

他在 Medium 上发表的一篇文章中详细阐述了这一分析，并声称“当中国部署其货币火箭筒时，美国机构投资者将别无选择，只能购买比特币 ETF。”他认为比特币现在代表了“对抗法定货币贬值的表现最好的资产”，这是大型基金经理不能再忽视的现实。这一声明基于一个关键观察：美联储最近的降息已经导致比特币价格大幅上涨。

Last September, after the announcement of the first monetary easing by the Fed, bitcoin surpassed the $60,000 mark, which marks a resurgence of interest in this asset. Since then, the crypto has reached a record of $100,000, a rise largely attributed to its status as a store of value amidst monetary uncertainties. Hayes also highlights that this dynamic is accompanied by an increase in inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs and a rising Coinbase Premium Index, two indicators showing a massive return of institutional investors to crypto.

去年9月，美联储宣布首次货币宽松后，比特币突破了6万美元大关，这标志着人们对这一资产的兴趣重新抬头。此后，加密货币的价格达到了 100,000 美元的纪录，这一上涨很大程度上归因于其在货币不确定性中作为价值储存手段的地位。 Hayes 还强调，这种动态伴随着美国比特币 ETF 流入量的增加和 Coinbase 溢价指数的上升，这两个指标显示机构投资者大量回归加密货币。

If Arthur Hayes’ predictions come to fruition, 2025 could be a historic turning point for bitcoin and the entire crypto market. The increase in inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs and the progression of the Coinbase Premium Index already confirm a growing interest from institutional investors. However, several uncertainties remain. The regulation of cryptos remains a key variable, and a tightening of policies could hinder this bullish momentum. Moreover, a rebound in inflation could force central banks to revise their monetary strategy, thus limiting the impact of available liquidity. The economic tensions between China and the United States add a geopolitical dimension that could influence investors’ appetite for risky assets. Despite these uncertainties, a trend is emerging: bitcoin is increasingly establishing itself as an essential asset in global macroeconomic strategies. As central banks adjust their policies, crypto could play a central role in redefining global financial balances.

如果 Arthur Hayes 的预测成为现实，2025 年可能成为比特币和整个加密市场的历史性转折点。流入美国比特币 ETF 的资金增加以及 Coinbase 溢价指数的进展已经证实了机构投资者的兴趣日益浓厚。然而，仍然存在一些不确定性。加密货币的监管仍然是一个关键变量，政策收紧可能会阻碍这种看涨势头。此外，通胀反弹可能迫使央行修改货币策略，从而限制可用流动性的影响。中美之间的经济紧张局势增加了地缘政治因素，可能会影响投资者对风险资产的兴趣。尽管存在这些不确定性，但一种趋势正在出现：比特币日益成为全球宏观经济战略中的重要资产。随着各国央行调整政策，加密货币可能在重新定义全球金融平衡方面发挥核心作用。

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