12 月通膨放緩，比特幣上漲

美國勞工統計局（BLS）幾分鐘前公佈了12月通膨數據，年化數據來了

Bitcoin (BTC) price surged nearly 6% on Friday morning after the latest U.S. inflation data came in lower than expected.

在最新的美國通膨數據低於預期後，比特幣 (BTC) 價格週五上午飆升近 6%。

This follows a 3.2% rally in the world’s largest cryptocurrency on Thursday, which was catalyzed by a slower-than-expected expansion in producer prices.

週四，全球最大的加密貨幣因生產者價格擴張慢於預期而上漲 3.2%。

After rising to a high of $107,000 on Feb. 2, BTC price corrected by about 5% to a low of $99,000 on Feb. 13. Since then, Bitcoin has been attempting to regain the key psychological level.

在2月2日昇至107,000美元的高點後，比特幣價格回調約5%至2月13日的99,000美元的低點。

Relative to the past 30 days, the net new capital flowing into stablecoins has slowed down considerably. In total, the market value of all stablecoins increased by $30 billion in the past two months.

相對於過去30天，流入穩定幣的淨新增資金大幅放緩。過去兩個月，所有穩定幣的市值總計增加了 300 億美元。

However, only $3 billion to $4 billion were added to this segment of the crypto market in the past 30 days, suggesting that the capital inflows have stalled.

然而，在過去 30 天內，加密貨幣市場的這一領域僅增加了 30 億至 40 億美元，這表明資本流入已經停滯。

This observation is also supported by the fact that the total stablecoin supply has only increased by 2% in the past month. In January, the net stablecoin flows were nearly double at $6 billion.

這項觀察結果也得到了過去一個月穩定幣總供應量僅增加 2% 的事實的支持。 1 月份，穩定幣淨流量幾乎翻倍，達到 60 億美元。

As highlighted in a recent analysis, there seems to be a correlation between the capital flows into stablecoins and Bitcoin’s price movements.

正如最近的分析所強調的那樣，流入穩定幣的資本與比特幣的價格走勢之間似乎存在相關性。

When adjusted for inflation, stablecoin market capitalization reached a recent all-time high of $108,000 for BTC. This level of Bitcoin was last seen in October 2023.

經通膨調整後，比特幣穩定幣市值達到近期歷史新高 108,000 美元。比特幣上次出現這一水準是在 2023 年 10 月。

Bitcoin price rallies as U.S. inflation slows down in December. Source: TradingView

隨著 12 月美國通膨放緩，比特幣價格上漲。來源：TradingView

Hence, it is safe to say that there’s a correlation between stablecoin flows and Bitcoin’s price.

因此，可以肯定地說，穩定幣流量與比特幣價格之間存在相關性。

Based on this analysis and the relative stalled expansion of this segment of the crypto space in the past 30 days, there does not seem to be enough fuel for Bitcoin to experience a rally of a high magnitude.

根據這項分析以及過去 30 天內加密貨幣領域這一領域相對停滯的擴張，似乎沒有足夠的燃料讓比特幣經歷大幅反彈。

That does not necessarily mean that BTC may not be propelled to local highs perhaps 5% to 10% higher than the most recent peak but it would be difficult to see its price moving from $100,000 to $200,000 in the next 30 days if stablecoin flows continue to expand at this slow rate.

這並不一定意味著BTC 可能不會被推升至比最近峰值高出5% 至10% 的局部高點，但如果穩定幣流量繼續增加，則很難看到其價格在未來30 天內從100,000 美元升至200,000 美元。

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the United States released its inflation data for December just a few minutes ago and the annualized figure came slightly below analysts’ estimate for the period.

美國勞工統計局(BLS)幾分鐘前公佈了12月通膨數據，年化數據略低於分析師的預期。

Last month, prices rose by 3.2% compared to the same period a year ago or 10 basis points lower than the market’s consensus estimate.

上個月，價格比去年同期上漲3.2%，比市場普遍預期低10個基點。

Inflation is a critical variable that central bankers take into account to make monetary policy decisions. If inflation is under control, they will be more inclined to keep lowering interest rates, which benefits high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

通貨膨脹是央行總裁在製定貨幣政策決策時考慮的關鍵變數。如果通膨得到控制，他們將更傾向於繼續降低利率，這有利於加密貨幣等高風險資產。

The market responded positively with Bitcoin is surging nearly 6% thus far in the session as lower-than-expected inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary policy decision and perform additional interest rate cuts in 2025.

市場反應積極，比特幣迄今已飆升近 6%，因為低於預期的通膨可能促使聯準會重新考慮其貨幣政策決定，並在 2025 年進一步降息。

Yesterday, the producer price index (PPI), which measures how wholesale prices have evolved in the economy, expanded at a lower rate than expected as well at 0.2%. This helped catalyze the rally that we witnessed in the crypto market yesterday, which saw BTC recover strongly from its recent pullback.

昨天，衡量批發價格在經濟中如何演變的生產者物價指數（PPI）的擴張速度也低於預期，為 0.2%。這有助於催化我們昨天在加密貨幣市場看到的反彈，比特幣從最近的回調中強勁反彈。