Bitx：等待更好的切入點

8 月 5 日，比特幣 (BTC-USD) 的價格閃跌至每枚 5 萬美元以下。價格波動絕非比特幣獨有的。

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) price volatility has been a common theme in 2024. On August 5th, the price of Bitcoin flash-crashed under $50k per coin. The price volatility was by no means unique to just Bitcoin. At the August 5th intraday lows, the S&P 500 had sold off by more than 8% from peak to trough over the course of just three trading sessions.

比特幣（BTC-USD）價格波動是 2024 年的常見主題。價格波動絕非比特幣獨有的。在 8 月 5 日的盤中低點，標普 500 指數在短短三個交易日內從高峰到低谷的跌幅超過 8%。

At the time, I wrote that Bitcoin was likely a casualty of an unwind in the Japanese Yen (USD:JPY) carry trade. Since the flash-crash at the beginning of the month, Bitcoin has recovered by 8.5% and even briefly hit $65k per coin on August 25th.

當時，我寫道，比特幣很可能是日圓（美元：日圓）套利交易平倉的受害者。自本月初的閃崩以來，比特幣已反彈 8.5%，甚至在 8 月 25 日一度觸及每枚 6.5 萬美元。

As well as BTC has performed since that early-August flash-crash, the 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BATS:BITX) has done even better after generating a 36.1% total return from the lows. This is well ahead of the 2x return goal and speaks to the importance of hitting the timing of a trade when the asset enters a strong uptrend.

與 BTC 自 8 月初閃電崩盤以來的表現一樣，2x 比特幣策略 ETF (BATS:BITX) 從低點產生了 36.1% 的總回報率，表現甚至更好。這遠遠超出了 2 倍回報目標，並說明了在資產進入強勁上升趨勢時把握交易時機的重要性。

If we judge the performance of BITX against BTC year to date, we can see that BTC is clearly the better play for longer-term holding, as the coin has outperformed a fund that is designed to double the returns of the coin itself. To reiterate, this is due to the daily rebalancing and long-term decay of leveraged ETFs like BITX. For those who are unfamiliar with this, I'd encourage you to read my previous BITX article for Seeking Alpha as I explain some of the fundamental issues more in-depth.

如果我們對比今年迄今為止Bitx 與BTC 的表現，我們可以看到，對於長期持有來說，BTC 顯然是更好的選擇，因為該代幣的表現優於旨在使該代幣本身回報翻倍的基金。重申一下，這是由於 Bitx 等槓桿 ETF 的每日重新平衡和長期衰減造成的。對於那些不熟悉這一點的人，我鼓勵您閱讀我之前關於 Seeking Alpha 的 BITX 文章，因為我更深入地解釋了一些基本問題。

To summarize; BITX is bad for investing, but potentially good for short-term trading. In this update, I'll get into some of the reasons why I believe speculators hungry to leverage BTC gains might want to wait before longing BITX.

總結一下； Bitx 不利於投資，但可能有利於短期交易。在本次更新中，我將探討一些原因，為什麼我認為渴望利用 BTC 收益的投機者可能會在渴望 BitX 之前等待一段時間。

I've covered Bitcoin's September seasonality in a previous Seeking Alpha article in August, so I'm not going to use too much real estate on it in this article. But September has historically been a rough month for BTC returns:

我在 8 月的 Seeking Alpha 文章中已經介紹了比特幣 9 月的季節性，因此我不會在本文中使用太多的內容。但從歷史上看，9 月對於 BTC 回報來說是一個艱難的月份：

Going back the last 11 years, with trading data from Kraken, Bitcoin has generated a positive return in September just 30% of the time. And at -5.8%, the month of September has historically been the worst month of the year for BTC by mean change.

回顧過去 11 年，根據 Kraken 的交易數據，比特幣在 9 月產生正回報的機率僅為 30%。從歷史上看，9 月的平均變化為-5.8%，是 BTC 一年中最糟糕的月份。

To be clear, this doesn't mean September 2024 is guaranteed to be a negative month for BTC. As the adage goes, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Furthermore, capital flows into Bitcoin investment products likely matter more at this point than seasonality and those flows have been very strong recently per data from CoinShares:

需要明確的是，這並不意味著 2024 年 9 月對 BTC 來說一定是負面月份。俗話說，過去的表現並不能保證未來的報酬。此外，目前流入比特幣投資產品的資本可能比季節性更重要，而且根據 CoinShares 的數據，這些資金流動最近非常強勁：

Crypto Capital Flows (CoinShares)

加密資本流（CoinShares）

As of the end of August 24th 2024, Bitcoin benefited from $543 million in single-week investment demand. This brings year to date investment flow into Bitcoin to a staggering $21.3 billion. And given the weakness in Ethereum (ETH-USD) ETF demand, if one strips out Bitcoin from the table above, crypto investment in the preceding week was actually negative. A week with $533 million in capital flows into digital assets was entirely reliant on BTC to be net positive. What is going on here?

截至2024年8月24日，比特幣受惠於單週投資需求5.43億美元。這使得今年迄今流入比特幣的投資達到驚人的 213 億美元。鑑於以太幣（ETH-USD）ETF需求疲軟，如果從上表中剔除比特幣，前一周的加密貨幣投資實際上是負數。一週有 5.33 億美元的資金流入數位資產，完全依賴 BTC 來實現淨正值。這是怎麼回事？

I've been making the point through various Seeking Alpha articles this year that Bitcoin is an anti-fiat asset. Given that, Bitcoin likely goes as global liquidity goes, and we can see that very clearly in this chart that has been shared by Lyn Alden on X:

今年我一直在透過各種 Seeking Alpha 文章指出比特幣是一種反法定資產。有鑑於此，比特幣很可能會隨著全球流動性的變化而變化，我們可以在 Lyn Alden 在 X 上分享的這張圖表中清楚地看到這一點：

Lyn Alden/X

林恩·奧爾登/X

There are clearly large booms and busts along the way, but the price of BTC has been rising over the last 15 years because it is viewed as an alternative to state money printing. This is why we can see the booms in the price generally coincide with the large increases in global M2. With the Federal Reserve now indicating that it will be appropriate to cut rates in the future, the market is beginning to price in rate cuts in September that could be as much as 50 bps:

一路上顯然有大的繁榮和蕭條，但比特幣的價格在過去 15 年裡一直在上漲，因為它被視為國家印鈔的替代品。這就是為什麼我們可以看到價格的上漲通常與全球M2的大幅成長同時發生。隨著聯準會現在表示未來降息是適當的，市場開始消化 9 月降息幅度可能高達 50 個基點的影響：

September Rate Probabilities as of 8/27/24 (CME FedWatch)

截至 2024 年 8 月 27 日的 9 月利率機率（CME FedWatch）

However, I think it's important to be mindful of what happened the last time the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, back in 2019:

然而，我認為重要的是要記住聯準會上次降息時發生的事情，即 2019 年：

BTC vs Fed Funds (TrendSpider)

比特幣與聯邦基金 (TrendSpider)

Bitcoin was born out of GFC, so we only have one real attempt at a hiking cycle previous to 2022 that we can use to gauge the coin's performance following cuts. Back in 2019 when the Fed had the funds rate at slightly above 2%, Bitcoin was enjoying a large rally that had taken it from $3k per coin at the end of 2018 up to $

比特幣誕生於全球金融危機，因此我們在 2022 年之前只有一次真正的升息週期嘗試，我們可以用它來衡量比特幣在降息後的表現。早在 2019 年，當聯準會將基金利率維持在略高於 2% 的水平時，比特幣就經歷了大幅上漲，從 2018 年底的每枚 3,000 美元上漲到 10,000 美元。