Bitx：等待更好的切入点

8 月 5 日，比特币 (BTC-USD) 的价格闪跌至每枚 5 万美元以下。价格波动绝不是比特币独有的。

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) price volatility has been a common theme in 2024. On August 5th, the price of Bitcoin flash-crashed under $50k per coin. The price volatility was by no means unique to just Bitcoin. At the August 5th intraday lows, the S&P 500 had sold off by more than 8% from peak to trough over the course of just three trading sessions.

比特币（BTC-USD）价格波动是 2024 年的一个常见主题。8 月 5 日，比特币的价格瞬间跌破每枚 5 万美元。价格波动绝不是比特币独有的。在 8 月 5 日的盘中低点，标准普尔 500 指数在短短三个交易日内从高峰到低谷的跌幅超过 8%。

At the time, I wrote that Bitcoin was likely a casualty of an unwind in the Japanese Yen (USD:JPY) carry trade. Since the flash-crash at the beginning of the month, Bitcoin has recovered by 8.5% and even briefly hit $65k per coin on August 25th.

当时，我写道，比特币很可能是日元（美元：日元）套利交易平仓的牺牲品。自本月初的闪崩以来，比特币已反弹 8.5%，甚至在 8 月 25 日一度触及每枚 6.5 万美元。

As well as BTC has performed since that early-August flash-crash, the 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BATS:BITX) has done even better after generating a 36.1% total return from the lows. This is well ahead of the 2x return goal and speaks to the importance of hitting the timing of a trade when the asset enters a strong uptrend.

与 BTC 自 8 月初闪电崩盘以来的表现一样，2x 比特币策略 ETF (BATS:BITX) 从低点产生了 36.1% 的总回报率，表现甚至更好。这远远超出了 2 倍回报目标，并说明了在资产进入强劲上升趋势时把握交易时机的重要性。

If we judge the performance of BITX against BTC year to date, we can see that BTC is clearly the better play for longer-term holding, as the coin has outperformed a fund that is designed to double the returns of the coin itself. To reiterate, this is due to the daily rebalancing and long-term decay of leveraged ETFs like BITX. For those who are unfamiliar with this, I'd encourage you to read my previous BITX article for Seeking Alpha as I explain some of the fundamental issues more in-depth.

如果我们对比今年迄今为止 Bitx 与 BTC 的表现，我们可以看到，对于长期持有来说，BTC 显然是更好的选择，因为该代币的表现优于旨在使该代币本身回报翻倍的基金。重申一下，这是由于 Bitx 等杠杆 ETF 的每日重新平衡和长期衰减造成的。对于那些不熟悉这一点的人，我鼓励您阅读我之前关于 Seeking Alpha 的 BITX 文章，因为我更深入地解释了一些基本问题。

To summarize; BITX is bad for investing, but potentially good for short-term trading. In this update, I'll get into some of the reasons why I believe speculators hungry to leverage BTC gains might want to wait before longing BITX.

总结一下； Bitx 不利于投资，但可能有利于短期交易。在本次更新中，我将探讨一些原因，为什么我认为渴望利用 BTC 收益的投机者可能会在渴望 BitX 之前等待一段时间。

I've covered Bitcoin's September seasonality in a previous Seeking Alpha article in August, so I'm not going to use too much real estate on it in this article. But September has historically been a rough month for BTC returns:

我在 8 月份的一篇 Seeking Alpha 文章中已经介绍了比特币 9 月份的季节性，因此我不会在本文中使用太多的内容。但从历史上看，9 月对于 BTC 回报来说是一个艰难的月份：

Going back the last 11 years, with trading data from Kraken, Bitcoin has generated a positive return in September just 30% of the time. And at -5.8%, the month of September has historically been the worst month of the year for BTC by mean change.

回顾过去 11 年，根据 Kraken 的交易数据，比特币在 9 月份产生正回报的概率仅为 30%。从历史上看，9 月份的平均变化为-5.8%，是 BTC 一年中最糟糕的月份。

To be clear, this doesn't mean September 2024 is guaranteed to be a negative month for BTC. As the adage goes, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Furthermore, capital flows into Bitcoin investment products likely matter more at this point than seasonality and those flows have been very strong recently per data from CoinShares:

需要明确的是，这并不意味着 2024 年 9 月对 BTC 来说一定是负面月份。俗话说，过去的表现并不能保证未来的回报。此外，目前流入比特币投资产品的资本可能比季节性更重要，而且根据 CoinShares 的数据，这些资金流动最近非常强劲：

Crypto Capital Flows (CoinShares)

加密资本流动（CoinShares）

As of the end of August 24th 2024, Bitcoin benefited from $543 million in single-week investment demand. This brings year to date investment flow into Bitcoin to a staggering $21.3 billion. And given the weakness in Ethereum (ETH-USD) ETF demand, if one strips out Bitcoin from the table above, crypto investment in the preceding week was actually negative. A week with $533 million in capital flows into digital assets was entirely reliant on BTC to be net positive. What is going on here?

截至2024年8月24日，比特币受益于单周投资需求5.43亿美元。这使得今年迄今为止流入比特币的投资达到惊人的 213 亿美元。鉴于以太坊（ETH-USD）ETF需求疲软，如果从上表中剔除比特币，前一周的加密货币投资实际上是负数。一周有 5.33 亿美元的资金流入数字资产，完全依赖 BTC 实现净正值。这是怎么回事？

I've been making the point through various Seeking Alpha articles this year that Bitcoin is an anti-fiat asset. Given that, Bitcoin likely goes as global liquidity goes, and we can see that very clearly in this chart that has been shared by Lyn Alden on X:

今年我一直在通过各种 Seeking Alpha 文章指出比特币是一种反法定资产。鉴于此，比特币很可能会随着全球流动性的变化而变化，我们可以在 Lyn Alden 在 X 上分享的这张图表中清楚地看到这一点：

Lyn Alden/X

林恩·奥尔登/X

There are clearly large booms and busts along the way, but the price of BTC has been rising over the last 15 years because it is viewed as an alternative to state money printing. This is why we can see the booms in the price generally coincide with the large increases in global M2. With the Federal Reserve now indicating that it will be appropriate to cut rates in the future, the market is beginning to price in rate cuts in September that could be as much as 50 bps:

一路上显然有大的繁荣和萧条，但比特币的价格在过去 15 年里一直在上涨，因为它被视为国家印钞的替代品。这就是为什么我们可以看到价格的上涨通常与全球M2的大幅增长同时发生。随着美联储现在表示未来降息是适当的，市场开始消化 9 月份降息幅度可能高达 50 个基点的影响：

September Rate Probabilities as of 8/27/24 (CME FedWatch)

截至 2024 年 8 月 27 日的 9 月份利率概率（CME FedWatch）

However, I think it's important to be mindful of what happened the last time the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, back in 2019:

然而，我认为重要的是要记住美联储上次降息时发生的事情，即 2019 年：

BTC vs Fed Funds (TrendSpider)

比特币与联邦基金 (TrendSpider)

Bitcoin was born out of GFC, so we only have one real attempt at a hiking cycle previous to 2022 that we can use to gauge the coin's performance following cuts. Back in 2019 when the Fed had the funds rate at slightly above 2%, Bitcoin was enjoying a large rally that had taken it from $3k per coin at the end of 2018 up to $

比特币诞生于全球金融危机，因此我们在 2022 年之前只有一次真正的加息周期尝试，我们可以用它来衡量比特币在降息后的表现。早在 2019 年，当美联储将基金利率维持在略高于 2% 的水平时，比特币就经历了大幅上涨，从 2018 年底的每枚 3,000 美元上涨到 10,000 美元。