分析師說，比特幣的上升可能會繼續 - 但風險仍然存在。

宏觀經濟策略師林恩·奧爾登（Lyn Alden）在明年看到比特幣的積極前景，這表明了健康的基本面和支持性的市場狀況。

Macroeconomic strategist Lyn Alden maintains a positive outlook for Bitcoin over the next year, attributing its healthy fundamentals and supportive market conditions.

宏觀經濟策略師林恩·奧爾登（Lyn Alden）在明年保持對比特幣的積極前景，歸因於其健康的基本面和支持性的市場狀況。

Despite recent volatility, she believes the broader trend remains upward—but not without potential threats.

儘管最近波動性，但她認為，更廣泛的趨勢仍然向上上升，但並非沒有潛在的威脅。

Alden’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin still has room to grow through 2025, assuming the global economy avoids major disruptions. However, her perspective cautions that unforeseen financial shocks—such as a rapid decline in global equity markets—could temporarily reverse momentum.

奧爾登（Alden）的分析表明，假設全球經濟避免了重大破壞，則比特幣在2025年仍有生長的空間。但是，她的觀點警告說，無法預見的財務衝擊（例如全球股票市場的迅速下降）可能會暫時逆轉勢頭。

These rare but impactful events, often referred to as Black Swans, have the potential to lead to significant short-term losses even in strong-performing assets like Bitcoin.

這些罕見但有影響力的事件通常被稱為黑天鵝，即使在比特幣（例如比特幣）中，即使在表現出色的資產中，也有可能導致巨大的短期損失。

While many investors continue to track Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles as a key signal for price movement, Alden argues that this narrative may be losing its dominance.

儘管許多投資者繼續跟踪比特幣的四年減半週期，這是價格變動的關鍵信號，但奧爾登認為，這種敘述可能正在失去其統治地位。

As Bitcoin matures and its market cap grows, her view is that its behavior is becoming more closely aligned with global liquidity trends than with fixed supply mechanics alone.

隨著比特幣成熟及其市值的增長，她的看法是，與僅固定供應機制相比，它的行為與全球流動性趨勢更加緊密。

According to her assessment, liquidity—the availability of capital across the financial system—now plays a much larger role in shaping Bitcoin’s direction. Periods of high liquidity tend to benefit risk assets like Bitcoin, while tighter conditions may limit upside or trigger corrections, regardless of the halving schedule.

根據她的評估，流動性（整個金融體系中的資本可用性）在塑造比特幣方向方面起著更大的作用。高流動性期限往往會受益於比特幣等風險資產，而更嚴格的條件可能會限制上升空間或觸發糾正，而不管時間表如何。

This shift reflects Bitcoin’s increasing integration into the broader financial landscape.

這一轉變反映了比特幣不斷增加在更廣泛的金融環境中的一體化。

No longer driven solely by crypto-native factors, Alden’s view is that its price action is now heavily influenced by global macroeconomic dynamics.

奧爾登（Alden）的觀點不再僅受加密本地因素的驅動，而是它的價格行動現在受到全球宏觀經濟動態的影響。

As such, she expects the asset to continue performing well in the absence of major economic shocks, but she also emphasizes that investors should remain aware of external risks that could shake the system.

因此，她希望在沒有重大經濟衝擊的情況下，資產將繼續表現良好，但她還強調，投資者應該仍然意識到可能動搖該系統的外部風險。