標題：比特幣價格動作顯示了幾個警告信號，儘管總體看漲宏觀的宏觀景觀，但可能表明短期價格下降。

比特幣的價格動作顯示了幾個警告信號，儘管總體看漲宏觀的宏觀，但可能表明短期價格下降。

Bitcoin price action is displaying several warning signs that could indicate a short-term price decline despite an overall bullish macro landscape.

比特幣的價格動作顯示了幾個警告信號，儘管總體看漲宏觀的宏觀，但可能表明短期價格下降。

Technical analysis of both Bitcoin and the US dollar charts, combined with the M2 global liquidity index, suggests BTC may face downward pressure in the coming weeks before resuming its upward trajectory.

比特幣和美元圖表的技術分析，再加上M2全球流動性指數，表明BTC可能會在接下來的幾週內面對向下壓力，然後才能恢復其上升軌跡。

Currently, the cryptocurrency is struggling at the 50-day moving average while facing resistance from a lower high trend line.

目前，加密貨幣正處於50天的移動平均水平，同時面對較低趨勢線的阻力。

US Dollar Correlation Points to Bitcoin Price Consolidation Phase

美元相關點與比特幣價格合併階段

The US dollar chart reveals similarities between current market conditions and those observed in July 2017.

美元圖表揭示了當前市場狀況與2017年7月觀察到的相似之處。

According to the analysis, the US dollar is currently breaking a key trend line and testing the lower boundary of a long-term wedge formation. This pattern closely resembles what occurred during the first Trump administration in mid-2017.

根據分析，美元目前正在打破關鍵趨勢線並測試長期楔形組的下邊界。這種模式與2017年中期第一次特朗普政府期間發生的事情非常相似。

What makes this correlation particularly relevant is how Bitcoin behaved during that previous period.

使這種相關性特別相關的是，比特幣在上一個時期的表現。

In July 2017, Bitcoin price had just broken its previous all-time high and entered a retracement phase following its exit from the bear market. The current situation mirrors this pattern closely.

2017年7月，比特幣的價格剛剛打破了以前的歷史最高水平，並在退出熊市後進入了一個回探。當前情況與此模式密切反映。

The analyst identifies an inverse head and shoulders pattern currently playing out in Bitcoin’s price structure.

分析師確定了當前在比特幣的價格結構中播放的逆向頭和肩膀模式。

Bitcoin is experiencing a throwback to the neckline of this pattern, which coincides with the 50-week moving average around $77,000.

比特幣正經歷這種模式的領口，這與50週的移動平均線約為77,000美元。

This technical confluence provides a strong support zone that will likely be tested if the current consolidation breaks down.

這種技術匯合提供了一個強大的支撐區，如果當前合併分解，可能會測試。

Following the July 2017 consolidation, Bitcoin experienced a multi-month parabolic bull run alongside significant altcoin performance.

在2017年7月的合併之後，比特幣經歷了多個月的拋物線公牛奔跑，同時進行了巨大的Altcoin性能。

The analysis suggests that once the current consolidation completes and clarity emerges regarding Federal Reserve policy and tariff concerns, a similar powerful move could be in store.

分析表明，一旦目前的合併完成並就美聯儲政策和關稅問題提出了清晰度，則可能會採取類似的強大舉措。

Technical Analysis Indicates Possible Price Pullback

技術分析表明可能的價格下降

Bitcoin currently faces multiple resistance barriers on shorter timeframes that could trigger a pullback in price.

當前，比特幣在較短的時間範圍內面臨多個阻力障礙，可能會引發價格下跌。

The cryptocurrency is holding its 50-day moving average (shown as a blue line on charts). This is directly confluent with a lower high trend line.

加密貨幣正在保持其50天的移動平均值（在圖表上顯示為藍線）。這與較低的高趨勢線直接匯合。

While there remains a possibility that Bitcoin could break through this resistance and continue higher, the analyst suggests it’s common to anticipate continued downside movement, especially while market participants await clarity on monetary policy and trade tariffs.

儘管比特幣仍然有可能打破這種抵抗並繼續更高的可能性，但分析師認為，通常可以預期繼續下行運動，尤其是在市場參與者等待貨幣政策和貿易關稅的情況下。

The decisive bullish trigger is a move above $87,000, which coincides with the 200-day moving average.

決定性看漲的觸發因素是超過87,000美元的舉動，這與200天的移動平均線相吻合。

Reclaiming this level would signal a potential trend reversal to the upside. The analysis highlights the M2 global liquidity index as a critical factor currently influencing Bitcoin’s price action.

收回此水平將表明潛在的趨勢逆轉到上升空間。該分析強調了M2全球流動性指數是目前影響比特幣價格行動的關鍵因素。

Bitcoin has been closely tracking this liquidity measure with a 108-day lag, which is the most commonly referenced timeframe.

比特幣一直以108天的滯後方式密切跟踪這種流動性措施，這是最常見的時間表。

According to this indicator, choppy market conditions could persist until approximately May 7th, suggesting Bitcoin may face turbulence in the coming weeks.

根據該指標，波濤洶湧的市場狀況可能會持續到5月7日，這表明比特幣在未來幾週內可能會面臨湍流。

If these technical barriers are intact and the liquidity index is accurate, then Bitcoin can test the $77,000-$78,000 support zone again.

如果這些技術障礙是完整的，並且流動性指數準確，則比特幣可以再次測試$ 77,000- $ 78,000的支持區。

Smart Money Continues to Accumulate Despite Short-Term Fluctuations

儘管短期波動，聰明的錢仍在繼續積累

Despite threats of possible short-term losses, the analyst notes that institutional money and smart money continue to purchase Bitcoin.

儘管威脅可能會造成短期損失，但分析師指出，機構資金和智能資金繼續購買比特幣。

This purchasing behavior is comparable to what occurred in previous stability stages in 2024.

這種購買行為與2024年以前穩定階段發生的情況相當。

The report cites on-chain data that indicates “smart money” is taking advantage of such bottoming cycles to build up more of their Bitcoin reserves.

該報告引用了鏈上數據，表明“智能貨幣”正在利用這種底部循環來建立更多的比特幣儲備。

This trend was witnessed in past cycles of consolidation and appears to be continuing with the prevailing market conditions.

過去的合併週期中見證了這一趨勢，並且似乎在盛行的市場狀況下仍在繼續。

If you happen to own Bitcoin or altcoins, the advice is to anticipate likely volatility in place of expecting the prices to rise first.

如果您碰巧擁有比特幣或替代幣，建議的是預計可能波動，以代替預期價格首先上漲。

While investors, particularly for altcoins, can desire a stunning upward trend, the current nature of the market demands patience and caution.

雖然投資者，特別是對於Altcoins，可以希望出現驚人的上升趨勢，但市場的當前性質需要耐心和謹慎。

The overall message is one of short-term caution with long-term optimism. The analyst places the current situation in the context of a “collision of macro bullishness with zoomed-in uncertainty.”

總體信息是長期樂觀的短期謹慎之一。分析師將當前的情況置於“宏觀看漲與放大不確定性的碰撞”的背景下。

He says that while the overall picture is still positive for Bitcoin, short-term price action can test the mettle of investors.

他說，雖然比特幣的整體情況仍然是積極的，但短期價格行動可以測試投資者的勇氣。