标题：比特币价格动作显示了几个警告信号，尽管总体看涨宏观的宏观景观，但可能表明短期价格下降。

比特币的价格动作显示了几个警告信号，尽管总体看涨宏观的宏观，但可能表明短期价格下降。

Bitcoin price action is displaying several warning signs that could indicate a short-term price decline despite an overall bullish macro landscape.

比特币的价格动作显示了几个警告信号，尽管总体看涨宏观的宏观，但可能表明短期价格下降。

Technical analysis of both Bitcoin and the US dollar charts, combined with the M2 global liquidity index, suggests BTC may face downward pressure in the coming weeks before resuming its upward trajectory.

比特币和美元图表的技术分析，再加上M2全球流动性指数，表明BTC可能会在接下来的几周内面对向下压力，然后才能恢复其上升轨迹。

Currently, the cryptocurrency is struggling at the 50-day moving average while facing resistance from a lower high trend line.

目前，加密货币正处于50天的移动平均水平，同时面对较低趋势线的阻力。

US Dollar Correlation Points to Bitcoin Price Consolidation Phase

美元相关点与比特币价格合并阶段

The US dollar chart reveals similarities between current market conditions and those observed in July 2017.

美元图表揭示了当前市场状况与2017年7月观察到的相似之处。

According to the analysis, the US dollar is currently breaking a key trend line and testing the lower boundary of a long-term wedge formation. This pattern closely resembles what occurred during the first Trump administration in mid-2017.

根据分析，美元目前正在打破关键趋势线并测试长期楔形组的下边界。这种模式与2017年中期第一次特朗普政府期间发生的事情非常相似。

What makes this correlation particularly relevant is how Bitcoin behaved during that previous period.

使这种相关性特别相关的是，比特币在上一个时期的表现。

In July 2017, Bitcoin price had just broken its previous all-time high and entered a retracement phase following its exit from the bear market. The current situation mirrors this pattern closely.

2017年7月，比特币的价格刚刚打破了以前的历史最高水平，并在退出熊市后进入了一个回探。当前情况与此模式密切反映。

The analyst identifies an inverse head and shoulders pattern currently playing out in Bitcoin’s price structure.

分析师确定了当前在比特币的价格结构中播放的逆向头和肩膀模式。

Bitcoin is experiencing a throwback to the neckline of this pattern, which coincides with the 50-week moving average around $77,000.

比特币正经历这种模式的领口，这与50周的移动平均线约为77,000美元。

This technical confluence provides a strong support zone that will likely be tested if the current consolidation breaks down.

这种技术汇合提供了一个强大的支撑区，如果当前合并分解，可能会测试。

Following the July 2017 consolidation, Bitcoin experienced a multi-month parabolic bull run alongside significant altcoin performance.

在2017年7月的合并之后，比特币经历了多个月的抛物线公牛奔跑，同时进行了巨大的Altcoin性能。

The analysis suggests that once the current consolidation completes and clarity emerges regarding Federal Reserve policy and tariff concerns, a similar powerful move could be in store.

分析表明，一旦目前的合并完成并就美联储政策和关税问题提出了清晰度，则可能会采取类似的强大举措。

Technical Analysis Indicates Possible Price Pullback

技术分析表明可能的价格下降

Bitcoin currently faces multiple resistance barriers on shorter timeframes that could trigger a pullback in price.

当前，比特币在较短的时间范围内面临多个阻力障碍，可能会引发价格下跌。

The cryptocurrency is holding its 50-day moving average (shown as a blue line on charts). This is directly confluent with a lower high trend line.

加密货币正在保持其50天的移动平均值（在图表上显示为蓝线）。这与较低的高趋势线直接汇合。

While there remains a possibility that Bitcoin could break through this resistance and continue higher, the analyst suggests it’s common to anticipate continued downside movement, especially while market participants await clarity on monetary policy and trade tariffs.

尽管比特币仍然有可能打破这种抵抗并继续更高的可能性，但分析师认为，通常可以预期继续下行运动，尤其是在市场参与者等待货币政策和贸易关税的情况下。

The decisive bullish trigger is a move above $87,000, which coincides with the 200-day moving average.

决定性看涨的触发因素是超过87,000美元的举动，这与200天的移动平均线相吻合。

Reclaiming this level would signal a potential trend reversal to the upside. The analysis highlights the M2 global liquidity index as a critical factor currently influencing Bitcoin’s price action.

收回此水平将表明潜在的趋势逆转到上升空间。该分析强调了M2全球流动性指数是目前影响比特币价格行动的关键因素。

Bitcoin has been closely tracking this liquidity measure with a 108-day lag, which is the most commonly referenced timeframe.

比特币一直以108天的滞后方式密切跟踪这种流动性措施，这是最常见的时间表。

According to this indicator, choppy market conditions could persist until approximately May 7th, suggesting Bitcoin may face turbulence in the coming weeks.

根据该指标，波涛汹涌的市场状况可能会持续到5月7日，这表明比特币在未来几周内可能会面临湍流。

If these technical barriers are intact and the liquidity index is accurate, then Bitcoin can test the $77,000-$78,000 support zone again.

如果这些技术障碍是完整的，并且流动性指数准确，则比特币可以再次测试$ 77,000- $ 78,000的支持区。

Smart Money Continues to Accumulate Despite Short-Term Fluctuations

尽管短期波动，聪明的钱仍在继续积累

Despite threats of possible short-term losses, the analyst notes that institutional money and smart money continue to purchase Bitcoin.

尽管威胁可能会造成短期损失，但分析师指出，机构资金和智能资金继续购买比特币。

This purchasing behavior is comparable to what occurred in previous stability stages in 2024.

这种购买行为与2024年以前稳定阶段发生的情况相当。

The report cites on-chain data that indicates “smart money” is taking advantage of such bottoming cycles to build up more of their Bitcoin reserves.

该报告引用了链上数据，表明“智能货币”正在利用这种底部循环来建立更多的比特币储备。

This trend was witnessed in past cycles of consolidation and appears to be continuing with the prevailing market conditions.

过去的合并周期中见证了这一趋势，并且似乎在盛行的市场状况下仍在继续。

If you happen to own Bitcoin or altcoins, the advice is to anticipate likely volatility in place of expecting the prices to rise first.

如果您碰巧拥有比特币或替代币，建议的是预计可能波动，以代替预期价格首先上涨。

While investors, particularly for altcoins, can desire a stunning upward trend, the current nature of the market demands patience and caution.

虽然投资者，特别是对于Altcoins，可以希望出现惊人的上升趋势，但市场的当前性质需要耐心和谨慎。

The overall message is one of short-term caution with long-term optimism. The analyst places the current situation in the context of a “collision of macro bullishness with zoomed-in uncertainty.”

总体信息是长期乐观的短期谨慎之一。分析师将当前的情况置于“宏观看涨与放大不确定性的碰撞”的背景下。

He says that while the overall picture is still positive for Bitcoin, short-term price action can test the mettle of investors.

他说，虽然比特币的整体情况仍然是积极的，但短期价格行动可以测试投资者的勇气。