分析师说，比特币的上升可能会继续 - 但风险仍然存在。

宏观经济策略师林恩·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）在明年看到比特币的积极前景，这表明了健康的基本面和支持性的市场状况。

Macroeconomic strategist Lyn Alden maintains a positive outlook for Bitcoin over the next year, attributing its healthy fundamentals and supportive market conditions.

宏观经济策略师林恩·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）在明年保持对比特币的积极前景，归因于其健康的基本面和支持性的市场状况。

Despite recent volatility, she believes the broader trend remains upward—but not without potential threats.

尽管最近波动性，但她认为，更广泛的趋势仍然向上上升，但并非没有潜在的威胁。

Alden’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin still has room to grow through 2025, assuming the global economy avoids major disruptions. However, her perspective cautions that unforeseen financial shocks—such as a rapid decline in global equity markets—could temporarily reverse momentum.

奥尔登（Alden）的分析表明，假设全球经济避免了重大破坏，则比特币在2025年仍有生长的空间。但是，她的观点警告说，无法预见的财务冲击（例如全球股票市场的迅速下降）可能会暂时逆转势头。

These rare but impactful events, often referred to as Black Swans, have the potential to lead to significant short-term losses even in strong-performing assets like Bitcoin.

这些罕见但有影响力的事件通常被称为黑天鹅，即使在比特币（例如比特币）中，即使在表现出色的资产中，也有可能导致巨大的短期损失。

While many investors continue to track Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles as a key signal for price movement, Alden argues that this narrative may be losing its dominance.

尽管许多投资者继续跟踪比特币的四年减半周期，这是价格变动的关键信号，但奥尔登认为，这种叙述可能正在失去其统治地位。

As Bitcoin matures and its market cap grows, her view is that its behavior is becoming more closely aligned with global liquidity trends than with fixed supply mechanics alone.

随着比特币成熟及其市值的增长，她的看法是，与仅固定供应机制相比，它的行为与全球流动性趋势更加紧密。

According to her assessment, liquidity—the availability of capital across the financial system—now plays a much larger role in shaping Bitcoin’s direction. Periods of high liquidity tend to benefit risk assets like Bitcoin, while tighter conditions may limit upside or trigger corrections, regardless of the halving schedule.

根据她的评估，流动性（整个金融体系中的资本可用性）在塑造比特币方向方面起着更大的作用。高流动性期限往往会受益于比特币等风险资产，而更严格的条件可能会限制上升空间或触发纠正，而不管时间表如何。

This shift reflects Bitcoin’s increasing integration into the broader financial landscape.

这一转变反映了比特币不断增加在更广泛的金融环境中的一体化。

No longer driven solely by crypto-native factors, Alden’s view is that its price action is now heavily influenced by global macroeconomic dynamics.

奥尔登（Alden）的观点不再仅受加密本地因素的驱动，而是它的价格行动现在受到全球宏观经济动态的影响。

As such, she expects the asset to continue performing well in the absence of major economic shocks, but she also emphasizes that investors should remain aware of external risks that could shake the system.

因此，她希望在没有重大经济冲击的情况下，资产将继续表现良好，但她还强调，投资者应该仍然意识到可能动摇该系统的外部风险。