川普的關稅計畫推高債券殖利率，比特幣面臨動盪

11 月 5 日總統大選後，比特幣上漲了 45% 以上，但現在已經失去了動力。分析師預計未來將出現更多動盪

Bitcoin's recent rise of over 45% following the November 5 presidential election has shown signs of slowing down. Analysts now anticipate a period of increased turbulence as a result of President-elect Trump's proposed tariff plans and robust employment figures. These developments are expected to drive bond yields higher, leading to a stronger dollar and putting pressure on digital assets.

11 月 5 日總統大選後，比特幣近期上漲超過 45%，但目前已顯示出放緩跡象。分析人士現在預計，由於當選總統川普提出的關稅計畫和強勁的就業數據，一段時期的動盪將會加劇。這些事態發展預計將推高債券殖利率，導緻美元走強，並對數位資產造成壓力。

“The main problem for bitcoin at the moment is the strong dollar,” Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale Investments, told CNBC, noting that the Fed’s recent signal helped in part strengthen the dollar.

Grayscale Investments 研究主管 Zach Pandl 對 CNBC 表示：「目前比特幣的主要問題是美元走強。」他指出，聯準會最近的訊號在一定程度上幫助了美元走強。

According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin began the week on a strong note, reaching $102,000 on Monday. However, this rally was short-lived, with the flagship crypto asset dropping below $97,000 the following day and continuing its slide toward the end of the week.

據 CoinGecko 稱，比特幣本週一開始表現強勁，週一達到 102,000 美元。然而，這次反彈是短暫的，第二天這一旗艦加密資產跌破 97,000 美元，並在本週末繼續下滑。

“I would attribute the drawdown in the last two days largely to the market starting to appreciate that not every aspect of the Trump policy agenda is going to be positive for bitcoin,” Pandl said, regarding the recent decline, adding that Trump's proposed tariff plans are introducing uncertainty into the market.

潘德爾在談到最近的下跌時表示：「我將過去兩天的下跌主要歸因於市場開始意識到，川普政策議程的各個方面並不都會對比特幣有利。」他補充說，特朗普提出的關稅計劃正在為市場帶來不確定性。

According to CNN, Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to facilitate his plans for implementing universal tariffs. This, along with other economic policies, could lead to varying degrees of inflationary pressures. However, no final decision has yet been made regarding this declaration.

根據美國有線電視新聞網（CNN）報道，川普正在考慮宣布國家經濟緊急狀態，以促進他實施普遍關稅的計畫。這與其他經濟政策一起可能導致不同程度的通膨壓力。然而，尚未就該聲明做出最終決定。

While there was initially optimism for a pro-crypto environment under Trump's administration, the varying signals about the extent of tariffs could lead to volatility and negatively impact risk assets like Bitcoin.

儘管最初對川普政府領導下的加密環境持樂觀態度，但有關關稅程度的不同訊號可能會導致波動並對比特幣等風險資產產生負面影響。

Continuing high interest rates

持續高利率

Stronger-than-expected payroll numbers for December 2024 indicate that the Fed may be less inclined to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. Following the report, investors have scaled back their expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.

2024 年 12 月的非農就業數據強於預期，顯示聯準會可能不太願意降低利率來刺激經濟。報告發布後，投資人降低了對近期降息的預期。

According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants now overwhelmingly believe that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on January 28-29, with a 97% probability.

根據CME FedWatch工具的最新數據，市場參與者目前絕大多數認為聯準會將在1月28-29日即將召開的會議上維持利率不變，機率為97%。

Last month, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points but also struck a hawkish tone, signaling a cautious approach moving forward. Due to ongoing inflationary pressures and economic conditions, the central bank now only anticipates two rate cuts this year, down from previous projections of more reductions.

上個月，聯準會降息25個基點，但語氣強硬，顯示未來將採取謹慎態度。由於持續的通膨壓力和經濟狀況，央行目前預計今年僅降息兩次，低於先前預計的更多降息。

“With the Fed on hold and uncertainties surrounding Trump's economic agenda, it's possible that risk assets will face choppiness over the near term, despite long-term structural tailwinds for bitcoin and digital assets remaining intact,” Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, stated.

Galaxy Digital 研究主管Alex Thorn 表示：「由於聯準會按兵不動，且川普經濟議程存在不確定性，儘管比特幣和數位資產的長期結構性有利因素保持不變，但風險資產短期內可能會面臨波動。 ” ，表示。