特朗普的关税计划推高债券收益率，比特币面临动荡

11 月 5 日总统大选后，比特币上涨了 45% 以上，但现在已经失去了动力。分析师预计未来将出现更多动荡

Bitcoin's recent rise of over 45% following the November 5 presidential election has shown signs of slowing down. Analysts now anticipate a period of increased turbulence as a result of President-elect Trump's proposed tariff plans and robust employment figures. These developments are expected to drive bond yields higher, leading to a stronger dollar and putting pressure on digital assets.

11 月 5 日总统大选后，比特币近期上涨超过 45%，但目前已显示出放缓迹象。分析人士现在预计，由于当选总统特朗普提出的关税计划和强劲的就业数据，一段时期的动荡将会加剧。这些事态发展预计将推高债券收益率，导致美元走强，并对数字资产造成压力。

“The main problem for bitcoin at the moment is the strong dollar,” Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale Investments, told CNBC, noting that the Fed’s recent signal helped in part strengthen the dollar.

Grayscale Investments 研究主管扎克·潘德尔 (Zach Pandl) 对 CNBC 表示：“目前比特币的主要问题是美元走强。”他指出，美联储最近的信号在一定程度上帮助了美元走强。

According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin began the week on a strong note, reaching $102,000 on Monday. However, this rally was short-lived, with the flagship crypto asset dropping below $97,000 the following day and continuing its slide toward the end of the week.

据 CoinGecko 称，比特币本周一开始表现强劲，周一达到 102,000 美元。然而，这次反弹是短暂的，第二天这一旗舰加密资产跌破 97,000 美元，并在本周末继续下滑。

“I would attribute the drawdown in the last two days largely to the market starting to appreciate that not every aspect of the Trump policy agenda is going to be positive for bitcoin,” Pandl said, regarding the recent decline, adding that Trump's proposed tariff plans are introducing uncertainty into the market.

潘德尔在谈到最近的下跌时表示：“我将过去两天的下跌主要归因于市场开始意识到，特朗普政策议程的各个方面并不都会对比特币有利。”他补充说，特朗普提出的关税计划正在给市场带来不确定性。

According to CNN, Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to facilitate his plans for implementing universal tariffs. This, along with other economic policies, could lead to varying degrees of inflationary pressures. However, no final decision has yet been made regarding this declaration.

据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）报道，特朗普正在考虑宣布国家经济紧急状态，以促进他实施普遍关税的计划。这与其他经济政策一起可能导致不同程度的通胀压力。然而，尚未就该声明做出最终决定。

While there was initially optimism for a pro-crypto environment under Trump's administration, the varying signals about the extent of tariffs could lead to volatility and negatively impact risk assets like Bitcoin.

尽管最初对特朗普政府领导下的加密环境持乐观态度，但有关关税程度的不同信号可能会导致波动并对比特币等风险资产产生负面影响。

Continuing high interest rates

持续高利率

Stronger-than-expected payroll numbers for December 2024 indicate that the Fed may be less inclined to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. Following the report, investors have scaled back their expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.

2024 年 12 月的非农就业数据强于预期，表明美联储可能不太愿意降低利率来刺激经济。报告发布后，投资者降低了对近期降息的预期。

According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants now overwhelmingly believe that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on January 28-29, with a 97% probability.

根据CME FedWatch工具的最新数据，市场参与者目前绝大多数认为美联储将在1月28-29日即将召开的会议上维持利率不变，概率为97%。

Last month, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points but also struck a hawkish tone, signaling a cautious approach moving forward. Due to ongoing inflationary pressures and economic conditions, the central bank now only anticipates two rate cuts this year, down from previous projections of more reductions.

上个月，美联储降息25个基点，但语气强硬，表明未来将采取谨慎态度。由于持续的通胀压力和经济状况，央行目前预计今年仅降息两次，低于此前预计的更多降息。

“With the Fed on hold and uncertainties surrounding Trump's economic agenda, it's possible that risk assets will face choppiness over the near term, despite long-term structural tailwinds for bitcoin and digital assets remaining intact,” Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, stated.

Galaxy Digital 研究主管 Alex Thorn 表示：“由于美联储按兵不动，且特朗普经济议程存在不确定性，尽管比特币和数字资产的长期结构性有利因素保持不变，但风险资产短期内可能会面临波动。” ，表示。