比特幣正在上升，黃金正在下降

前一天晚上我打電話給父親，我們發現自己像往常一樣討論投資。他自信地宣稱：“您應該投資黃金而不是比特幣。”

My dad and I were on the phone the other night, and as usual, our conversation veered towards investments. In a moment of surprising decisiveness, my dad declared, "You should have invested in gold instead of Bitcoin."

前一天晚上我和我父親在打電話，和往常一樣，我們的談話轉向投資。在令人驚訝的果斷性的一刻，我父親宣稱：“您應該投資黃金而不是比特幣。”

His comment wasn't just a casual tip for making some extra cash on the side; it spoke to a broader narrative that's unfolding in the investment world.

他的評論不僅是賺一些額外現金的隨便提示。它講述了一種在投資界正在發展的更廣泛的敘述。

Why Are Gold and Bitcoin Moving in Different Directions?

為什麼黃金和比特幣朝不同的方向移動？

Gold, the classic safe-haven asset, typically moves inversely to economic optimism. When geopolitical tensions rise, inflation fears spike, or traders grow pessimistic about the stock market, investors tend to pour money into gold. This behavior has been evident throughout major economic downturns, such as the financial crisis of 2008, when gold prices soared in response to uncertainty.

經典的避風港資產黃金通常會趨向於經濟樂觀。當地緣政治緊張局勢加劇時，通貨膨脹恐懼或交易者對股票市場的悲觀情有獨鍾，投資者傾向於將錢倒入黃金中。這種行為在整個重大經濟低迷中都顯而易見，例如2008年的金融危機，當時黃金價格飆升以應對不確定性。

During the 2008 financial crisis, gold prices surged nearly 25% from $870 per ounce in January 2008 to over $1,080 per ounce by December 2009.

在2008年的金融危機期間，黃金價格從2008年1月的每盎司870美元飆升至2009年12月1,080美元以上。

Bitcoin, while also touted as an inflation hedge and a hedge against pessimism, reacts differently. Its movements are heavily influenced by market sentiment, regulatory developments, technological adoption, and liquidity flows.

比特幣也被吹捧為通貨膨脹對沖和對悲觀情緒的樹籬的反應不同。它的運動受到市場情緒，監管發展，技術採用和流動性流動的嚴重影響。

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been particularly impacted by regulatory crackdowns, advancements in blockchain technology, and the increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies by large institutions. These factors often drive Bitcoin's volatility independent of traditional market pressures. For example, a new initiative from the Biden administration to collect taxes on cryptocurrency payments could have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price.

最近，加密貨幣市場受到監管鎮壓，區塊鏈技術的進步以及大型機構對加密貨幣越來越多的採用的影響。這些因素通常會導致比特幣的波動性與傳統市場壓力無關。例如，拜登政府從加密貨幣支付徵收稅款的一項新倡議可能會對比特幣的價格產生重大影響。

Gold's Stability vs. Bitcoin's Volatility

黃金的穩定性與比特幣的波動性

One of the primary reasons gold and Bitcoin are diverging lies in investor perception and asset functionality. Gold maintains a consistent perception as a stable store of value, underpinned by centuries of human consensus. Central banks hold significant gold reserves, reinforcing its global monetary role. Gold’s limited use cases—primarily jewelry, investment, and limited industrial applications—protect its demand profile from rapid technological or regulatory shifts.

黃金和比特幣的主要原因之一在於投資者的感知和資產功能。黃金以穩定的價值存儲保持一致的看法，這是人類共識的幾個世紀的基礎。中央銀行擁有大量的黃金儲備，從而增強了其全球貨幣作用。 Gold的有限用例（主要是珠寶，投資和有限的工業應用）從快速的技術或法規轉移中保護了其需求概況。

In contrast, BTC had a 42% annualized volatility of daily price movements in 2023 alone, influenced by regulatory shifts and technological updates. For instance, regulatory decisions in major economies, such as the United States, China, and Europe, can trigger sudden and dramatic price swings. Additionally, technological advancements, blockchain scalability issues, or innovations in competing cryptocurrencies can significantly affect Bitcoin’s value.

相比之下，僅2023年，BTC的每日價格變動就有42％的年度波動，受監管轉變和技術更新的影響。例如，美國，中國和歐洲等主要經濟體的監管決策可能會引發突然而戲劇性的價格波動。此外，技術進步，區塊鏈的可伸縮性問題或競爭加密貨幣的創新會極大地影響比特幣的價值。

Bitcoin and Gold: Economic, Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Impact

比特幣和黃金：經濟，機構採用和監管影響

The recent divergence can also be attributed to differing investor behaviors in response to macroeconomic environments. Amid rising interest rates and fluctuating inflation rates, investors looking for stability lean towards gold. Gold's tangible nature and its long-standing role in monetary policy provide psychological comfort and confidence.

最近的分歧也可以歸因於響應宏觀經濟環境的不同投資者行為。在利率上升和通貨膨脹率上升的情況下，尋求穩定性的投資者傾向於黃金。黃金的切實本質及其在貨幣政策中的長期作用提供了心理舒適和信心。

Bitcoin investors often represent a different demographic and risk profile, typically younger investors and tech-savvy institutions drawn to innovation and higher risk-return potentials. The digital asset appeals as both a speculative instrument and a future-oriented investment tied to blockchain innovation. Thus, in periods of uncertainty or technological optimism, Bitcoin can experience swings contrary to gold.

比特幣投資者通常代表不同的人口和風險狀況，通常是年輕的投資者和精通技術的機構，這些機構吸引了創新和更高的風險回收潛力。數字資產作為投機工具和與區塊鏈創新相關的未來的投資都吸引人。因此，在不確定性或技術樂觀的時期，比特幣會遇到與黃金相反的波動。

The institutional narrative around Bitcoin has evolved rapidly, adding another layer of complexity. Institutional investors, hedge funds, and even some conservative asset managers have increasingly added Bitcoin to their portfolios.

圍繞比特幣的機構敘事迅速發展，增加了另一層複雜性。機構投資者，對沖基金，甚至一些保守的資產經理越來越多地增加了比特幣的投資組合。

This institutional demand is a significant driver of Bitcoin's price in bull markets. When large institutions buy or sell Bitcoin, it can have a cascading effect on smaller investors, further amplifying the cryptocurrency's price movements.

這種機構需求是比特幣價格在牛市價格的重要推動力。當大型機構買賣比特幣時，它可能會對較小的投資者產生級聯影響，從而進一步擴大加密貨幣的價格變動。

At present, institutional investors hold about 7% of Bitcoin's total circulating supply, a stark contrast to less than 1% just three years ago. While this involvement brings legitimacy, it also makes Bitcoin susceptible to large-scale liquidity shifts driven by institutional buying or selling.

目前，機構投資者約有比特幣總循環供應量的7％，這是三年前不到1％的形成鮮明對比的。儘管這種參與帶來了合法性，但它也使比特幣容易受到機構買賣驅動的大規模流動性轉移。

Gold, on the other hand, has long been embedded within institutional investment frameworks, offering a predictable and less volatile profile. Regulatory clarity in gold trading, storage, and investment is well-established, ensuring consistent institutional participation without sudden disruptions.

另一方面，黃金長期以來一直嵌入機構投資框架中，提供可預測且易波動性的概況。黃金貿易，存儲和投資的監管清晰度是完善的，可確保機構參與而不會突然中斷。

Furthermore, recent regulatory moves have uniquely impacted Bitcoin. Notably, administrative actions in the U.S. in 2023 alone caused short-term declines of up to 15% in Bitcoin’s market value following announcements by the S.E.C., highlighting the sensitivity of Bitcoin to regulatory news flow.

此外，最近的監管動作具有唯一影響的比特幣。值得注意的是，僅2023年美國的行政行動在SEC的公告之後的公告後，短期下降了比特幣的市場價值下降，強調了比特幣對監管新聞流的敏感性。

Authorities worldwide are beginning to define clearer frameworks around cryptocurrencies, a process that began in China with a ban on cryptocurrency trading in 2017 and continued with the U.S. administration's focus on crypto regulation.

全球當局開始定義圍繞加密貨幣的更清晰的框架，該過程始於中國，禁止加密貨幣交易於2017年進行，並繼續美國政府對加密法規的關注。

As the dust settles on the 2024 presidential election and the administrative priorities become clear, the narrative around Bitcoin could shift, potentially affecting its price trends and macroeconomic impact.

隨著2024年總統大選的塵埃落定和行政優先事項變得明確，圍繞比特幣的敘述可能會發生變化，從而可能影響其價格趨勢和宏觀經濟的影響。

The post Bitcoin vs. Gold: What's Driving The Massive Divergence In 2024? appeared first on Benzinga.

比特幣與黃金的郵政：什麼是在2024年推動巨大的差異？首先出現在本辛加。

See More: Best Cryptocurrency Scanners

查看更多：最佳加密貨幣掃描儀

This article was originally published on Benzinga.com

本文最初發表在benzinga.com上