比特币正在上升，黄金正在下降

前一天晚上我打电话给父亲，我们发现自己像往常一样讨论投资。他自信地宣称：“您应该投资黄金而不是比特币。”

My dad and I were on the phone the other night, and as usual, our conversation veered towards investments. In a moment of surprising decisiveness, my dad declared, "You should have invested in gold instead of Bitcoin."

前一天晚上我和我父亲在打电话，和往常一样，我们的谈话转向投资。在令人惊讶的果断性的一刻，我父亲宣称：“您应该投资黄金而不是比特币。”

His comment wasn't just a casual tip for making some extra cash on the side; it spoke to a broader narrative that's unfolding in the investment world.

他的评论不仅是赚一些额外现金的随便提示。它讲述了一种在投资界正在发展的更广泛的叙述。

Why Are Gold and Bitcoin Moving in Different Directions?

为什么黄金和比特币朝不同的方向移动？

Gold, the classic safe-haven asset, typically moves inversely to economic optimism. When geopolitical tensions rise, inflation fears spike, or traders grow pessimistic about the stock market, investors tend to pour money into gold. This behavior has been evident throughout major economic downturns, such as the financial crisis of 2008, when gold prices soared in response to uncertainty.

经典的避风港资产黄金通常会趋向于经济乐观。当地缘政治紧张局势加剧时，通货膨胀恐惧或交易者对股票市场的悲观情有独钟，投资者倾向于将钱倒入黄金中。这种行为在整个重大经济低迷中都显而易见，例如2008年的金融危机，当时黄金价格飙升以应对不确定性。

During the 2008 financial crisis, gold prices surged nearly 25% from $870 per ounce in January 2008 to over $1,080 per ounce by December 2009.

在2008年的金融危机期间，黄金价格从2008年1月的每盎司870美元飙升至2009年12月1,080美元以上。

Bitcoin, while also touted as an inflation hedge and a hedge against pessimism, reacts differently. Its movements are heavily influenced by market sentiment, regulatory developments, technological adoption, and liquidity flows.

比特币也被吹捧为通货膨胀对冲和对悲观情绪的树篱的反应不同。它的运动受到市场情绪，监管发展，技术采用和流动性流动的严重影响。

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been particularly impacted by regulatory crackdowns, advancements in blockchain technology, and the increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies by large institutions. These factors often drive Bitcoin's volatility independent of traditional market pressures. For example, a new initiative from the Biden administration to collect taxes on cryptocurrency payments could have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price.

最近，加密货币市场受到监管镇压，区块链技术的进步以及大型机构对加密货币越来越多的采用的影响。这些因素通常会导致比特币的波动性与传统市场压力无关。例如，拜登政府从加密货币支付征收税款的一项新倡议可能会对比特币的价格产生重大影响。

Gold's Stability vs. Bitcoin's Volatility

黄金的稳定性与比特币的波动性

One of the primary reasons gold and Bitcoin are diverging lies in investor perception and asset functionality. Gold maintains a consistent perception as a stable store of value, underpinned by centuries of human consensus. Central banks hold significant gold reserves, reinforcing its global monetary role. Gold’s limited use cases—primarily jewelry, investment, and limited industrial applications—protect its demand profile from rapid technological or regulatory shifts.

黄金和比特币的主要原因之一在于投资者的感知和资产功能。黄金以稳定的价值存储保持一致的看法，这是人类共识的几个世纪的基础。中央银行拥有大量的黄金储备，从而增强了其全球货币作用。 Gold的有限用例（主要是珠宝，投资和有限的工业应用）从快速的技术或法规转移中保护了其需求概况。

In contrast, BTC had a 42% annualized volatility of daily price movements in 2023 alone, influenced by regulatory shifts and technological updates. For instance, regulatory decisions in major economies, such as the United States, China, and Europe, can trigger sudden and dramatic price swings. Additionally, technological advancements, blockchain scalability issues, or innovations in competing cryptocurrencies can significantly affect Bitcoin’s value.

相比之下，仅2023年，BTC的每日价格变动就有42％的年度波动，受监管转变和技术更新的影响。例如，美国，中国和欧洲等主要经济体的监管决策可能会引发突然而戏剧性的价格波动。此外，技术进步，区块链的可伸缩性问题或竞争加密货币的创新会极大地影响比特币的价值。

Bitcoin and Gold: Economic, Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Impact

比特币和黄金：经济，机构采用和监管影响

The recent divergence can also be attributed to differing investor behaviors in response to macroeconomic environments. Amid rising interest rates and fluctuating inflation rates, investors looking for stability lean towards gold. Gold's tangible nature and its long-standing role in monetary policy provide psychological comfort and confidence.

最近的分歧也可以归因于响应宏观经济环境的不同投资者行为。在利率上升和通货膨胀率上升的情况下，寻求稳定性的投资者倾向于黄金。黄金的切实本质及其在货币政策中的长期作用提供了心理舒适和信心。

Bitcoin investors often represent a different demographic and risk profile, typically younger investors and tech-savvy institutions drawn to innovation and higher risk-return potentials. The digital asset appeals as both a speculative instrument and a future-oriented investment tied to blockchain innovation. Thus, in periods of uncertainty or technological optimism, Bitcoin can experience swings contrary to gold.

比特币投资者通常代表不同的人口和风险状况，通常是年轻的投资者和精通技术的机构，这些机构吸引了创新和更高的风险回收潜力。数字资产作为投机工具和与区块链创新相关的未来的投资都吸引人。因此，在不确定性或技术乐观的时期，比特币会遇到与黄金相反的波动。

The institutional narrative around Bitcoin has evolved rapidly, adding another layer of complexity. Institutional investors, hedge funds, and even some conservative asset managers have increasingly added Bitcoin to their portfolios.

围绕比特币的机构叙事迅速发展，增加了另一层复杂性。机构投资者，对冲基金，甚至一些保守的资产经理越来越多地增加了比特币的投资组合。

This institutional demand is a significant driver of Bitcoin's price in bull markets. When large institutions buy or sell Bitcoin, it can have a cascading effect on smaller investors, further amplifying the cryptocurrency's price movements.

这种机构需求是比特币价格在牛市价格的重要推动力。当大型机构买卖比特币时，它可能会对较小的投资者产生级联影响，从而进一步扩大加密货币的价格变动。

At present, institutional investors hold about 7% of Bitcoin's total circulating supply, a stark contrast to less than 1% just three years ago. While this involvement brings legitimacy, it also makes Bitcoin susceptible to large-scale liquidity shifts driven by institutional buying or selling.

目前，机构投资者约有比特币总循环供应量的7％，这是三年前不到1％的形成鲜明对比的。尽管这种参与带来了合法性，但它也使比特币容易受到机构买卖驱动的大规模流动性转移。

Gold, on the other hand, has long been embedded within institutional investment frameworks, offering a predictable and less volatile profile. Regulatory clarity in gold trading, storage, and investment is well-established, ensuring consistent institutional participation without sudden disruptions.

另一方面，黄金长期以来一直嵌入机构投资框架中，提供可预测且易波动性的概况。黄金贸易，存储和投资的监管清晰度是完善的，可确保机构参与而不会突然中断。

Furthermore, recent regulatory moves have uniquely impacted Bitcoin. Notably, administrative actions in the U.S. in 2023 alone caused short-term declines of up to 15% in Bitcoin’s market value following announcements by the S.E.C., highlighting the sensitivity of Bitcoin to regulatory news flow.

此外，最近的监管动作具有唯一影响的比特币。值得注意的是，仅2023年美国的行政行动在SEC的公告之后的公告后，短期下降了比特币的市场价值下降，强调了比特币对监管新闻流的敏感性。

Authorities worldwide are beginning to define clearer frameworks around cryptocurrencies, a process that began in China with a ban on cryptocurrency trading in 2017 and continued with the U.S. administration's focus on crypto regulation.

全球当局开始定义围绕加密货币的更清晰的框架，该过程始于中国，禁止加密货币交易于2017年进行，并继续美国政府对加密法规的关注。

As the dust settles on the 2024 presidential election and the administrative priorities become clear, the narrative around Bitcoin could shift, potentially affecting its price trends and macroeconomic impact.

随着2024年总统大选的尘埃落定和行政优先事项变得明确，围绕比特币的叙述可能会发生变化，从而可能影响其价格趋势和宏观经济的影响。

The post Bitcoin vs. Gold: What's Driving The Massive Divergence In 2024? appeared first on Benzinga.

比特币与黄金的邮政：什么是在2024年推动巨大的差异？首先出现在本辛加。

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This article was originally published on Benzinga.com

本文最初发表在benzinga.com上