由於宏觀不確定性和礦工投降擔憂，比特幣暴跌

最近的比特幣價格暴跌 11.5%，引發 1.72 億美元的槓桿多頭部位清算。儘管如此，隨著投資者等待聯準會會議紀要並監測宏觀經濟狀況，不確定性仍然存在。傳統市場和中國對穩定幣的需求提供了混合訊號，表明潛在的短期調整，但長期影響不確定。比特幣礦商仍保持彈性，沒有明顯投降的跡象，而美國市場的資金流出表明投資流將嚴重影響未來的價格走勢。

Bitcoin Price Crash Stems from Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Miner Capitulation Fears

比特幣價格暴跌源自於宏觀經濟的不確定性和礦工投降的擔憂

New York, United States - May 2, 2023 - The price of Bitcoin (BTC) plunged by 11.5% between April 30 and May 1, reaching a low of $56,522. This significant decline triggered approximately $172 million in leveraged long position liquidations, a relatively modest amount considering the high open interest of BTC futures before the price drop. Consequently, it would be an oversimplification to assume that market participants were caught off guard by this event.

美國紐約 - 2023 年 5 月 2 日 - 4 月 30 日至 5 月 1 日期間，比特幣 (BTC) 價格暴跌 11.5%，跌至 56,522 美元的低點。這一大幅下跌引發了約 1.72 億美元的槓桿多頭頭寸清算，考慮到價格下跌前 BTC 期貨的未平倉合約數量較高，這一數額相對較小。因此，如果認為市場參與者對此事件措手不及，那就過於簡化了。

Investors Await Clarity from Federal Reserve Minutes

投資者等待聯準會會議紀要的明確內容

Analysts attribute the recent downturn to a combination of factors, including the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decisions. Investors are closely monitoring the Fed's minutes, expected to be released on May 1 after a two-day meeting, in anticipation of any changes in interest rates or economic outlook. Although it is widely anticipated that the Fed will maintain interest rates at 5.25%, skepticism persists regarding the U.S. Treasury Department's ability to finance the government's budget.

分析師將近期經濟低迷歸因於多種因素，其中包括聯準會貨幣政策決策的不確定性。投資者正在密切關注聯準會在為期兩天的會議後預計將於 5 月 1 日發布的會議紀要，以預測利率或經濟前景的任何變化。儘管人們普遍預計聯準會將維持利率在 5.25%，但人們對美國財政部為政府預算提供資金的能力仍然持懷疑態度。

The yield on the U.S. Treasury 2-year note climbed to its highest level in five months on April 30, reaching 5.06%. This increase reflects investors seeking higher returns to compensate for the rising risks associated with the announcement of a $1.07 trillion deficit for the first half of 2024. Interest expenses on the deficit have risen by 23% in the first half of 2024 due to the Fed's interest rate hikes throughout 2023, and are expected to continue increasing as long as rates remain elevated.

4月30日，美國2年期公債殖利率攀升至5個月來最高水平，達5.06%。這一增長反映出投資者尋求更高的回報，以彌補與宣布 2024 年上半年 1.07 兆美元赤字相關的不斷上升的風險。 2023 年全年升息，只要利率維持在高位，預計升息就會持續。

Risk Aversion Erodes Market Confidence

避險情緒削弱市場信心

Bitcoin is not the only asset class experiencing declines; broader macroeconomic conditions have made investors more risk-averse. The Russell 2000 Index (RTY), which tracks mid and small-cap U.S.-listed companies, has fallen by 8.2% over the last 30 days, eroding gains from the previous two months. WTI oil prices have also dropped by 8.3% since April 5, when they reached a five-month peak of $87.91.

比特幣並不是唯一會下跌的資產類別；更廣泛的宏觀經濟狀況使投資者更加厭惡風險。追蹤美國中小型上市公司的羅素 2000 指數 (RTY) 在過去 30 天內下跌了 8.2%，侵蝕了前兩個月的漲幅。自 4 月 5 日達到 87.91 美元的五個月高點以來，WTI 油價也下跌了 8.3%。

Encouraging Signals from Traditional Markets

傳統市場發出鼓舞人心的訊號

Analysts observe that Bitcoin's price correction may be reaching a potential bottom, citing signs of recovery in traditional markets. Strong first-quarter corporate earnings reports from major companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Netflix, TSMC, Samsung, Coca-Cola, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, HSBC, and Barclays have bolstered investor sentiment. While a temporary recovery in the stock market may divert investors' attention away from Bitcoin and other risk-on assets, traders could seek alternative investments if the Fed maintains higher rates for an extended period.

分析師指出，鑑於傳統市場復甦的跡象，比特幣的價格調整可能正在觸底。亞馬遜、微軟、Google、Netflix、台積電、三星、可口可樂、摩根士丹利、花旗集團、匯豐銀行和巴克萊銀行等主要公司發布的第一季強勁的企業獲利報告提振了投資者的情緒。雖然股市的暫時復甦可能會將投資者的注意力從比特幣和其他風險資產上轉移，但如果聯準會長期維持較高利率，交易者可能會尋求其他投資。

Bitcoin Miners Under Pressure Amid Capitulation Fears

比特幣礦工因投降擔憂而面臨壓力

Bitcoin miners are facing significant challenges following the April 20 halving, which reduced their rewards by 50% to 3.125 BTC per block. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that current estimates of miners' outflows to exchanges do not indicate capitulation "for now." However, Young Ju cautioned that if the Bitcoin price decline persists for several weeks, large miners could be forced to liquidate substantial amounts of Bitcoin.

4 月 20 日減半後，比特幣礦工面臨重大挑戰，減半後他們的獎勵減少了 50% 至每個區塊 3.125 BTC。 CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 指出，目前對礦工流向交易所的估計並不意味著「目前」會屈服。然而，Young Ju警告說，如果比特幣價格下跌持續數週，大型礦商可能會被迫清算大量比特幣。

Hashrate Index Declines but Miners Remain Resilient

算力指數下降，但礦工保持彈性

Another indication of Bitcoin's potential price recovery is the steadfastness of miners, who have remained reluctant to sell despite a 57% drop in the Hashrate Index reported by Luxor Technology. This metric measures the daily expected return of one terahash of hashing power, taking into account network difficulty, Bitcoin's price, and transaction fees.

比特幣價格潛在回升的另一個跡像是礦工的堅定態度，儘管 Luxor Technology 報告的算力指數下降了 57％，但他們仍然不願出售比特幣。此指標衡量 1 terahash 算力的每日預期回報，同時考慮網路難度、比特幣價格和交易費用。

Chinese Demand for Stablecoins Signals Optimism

中國對穩定幣的需求顯示樂觀

To gauge the broader sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, analysts examine the demand for stablecoins in China, particularly for USD Coin (USDC). The premium on USDC transactions over the official U.S. dollar rate provides insights into retail investors' activities, indicating whether they are moving into or out of cryptocurrency markets.

為了衡量加密貨幣市場的整體情緒，分析師研究了中國對穩定幣的需求，特別是美元硬幣（USDC）。 USDC 交易相對於官方美元匯率的溢價可以洞察散戶投資者的活動，表明他們是否正在進入或退出加密貨幣市場。

On May 1, the premium for USDC in China increased to 2.7%, indicating significant demand for converting Chinese Yuan (CNY) into USDC. This sustained interest suggests a positive sentiment toward cryptocurrencies in China, providing an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, which recently experienced a 20% price decline over three weeks.

5 月 1 日，USDC 在中國的溢價升至 2.7%，顯示人民幣 (CNY) 兌換 USDC 的需求旺盛。這種持續的興趣表明中國對加密貨幣的積極情緒，為比特幣提供了樂觀的前景，比特幣最近在三週內價格下跌了 20%。

U.S. Market Sentiment Remains Cautious

美國市場情緒依然謹慎

Despite potential improvements in market sentiment following the Federal Reserve's notes and the recognition that fears of miner capitulation are unfounded, the situation in U.S. markets presents a contrasting trend. Net outflows from U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) totaled $635 million in the past five trading days.

儘管聯準會發布報告後市場情緒可能有所改善，並且人們認識到對礦商投降的擔憂是沒有根據的，但美國市場的情況卻呈現出相反的趨勢。過去五個交易日，美國上市現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）淨流出總計 6.35 億美元。

Investment Flows Crucial in Price Determination

投資流向對價格決定至關重要

The disparity between the positive signals from China and the cautious sentiment in the U.S. emphasizes the importance of investment flows in determining Bitcoin's price movements. The current market conditions underscore the uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of the $56,500 support level.

中國的正面訊號與美國的謹慎情緒之間的差異凸顯了投資流在決定比特幣價格走勢的重要性。目前的市場狀況凸顯了 56,500 美元支撐位能否持續的不確定性。