由于宏观不确定性和矿工投降担忧，比特币暴跌

最近的比特币价格暴跌 11.5%，引发 1.72 亿美元的杠杆多头头寸清算。尽管如此，随着投资者等待美联储会议纪要并监测宏观经济状况，不确定性依然存在。传统市场和中国对稳定币的需求提供了混合信号，表明潜在的短期调整，但长期影响不确定。比特币矿商仍保持弹性，没有明显投降的迹象，而美国市场的资金流出表明投资流将严重影响未来的价格走势。

Bitcoin Price Crash Stems from Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Miner Capitulation Fears

比特币价格暴跌源于宏观经济的不确定性和矿工投降的担忧

New York, United States - May 2, 2023 - The price of Bitcoin (BTC) plunged by 11.5% between April 30 and May 1, reaching a low of $56,522. This significant decline triggered approximately $172 million in leveraged long position liquidations, a relatively modest amount considering the high open interest of BTC futures before the price drop. Consequently, it would be an oversimplification to assume that market participants were caught off guard by this event.

美国纽约 - 2023 年 5 月 2 日 - 4 月 30 日至 5 月 1 日期间，比特币 (BTC) 价格暴跌 11.5%，跌至 56,522 美元的低点。这一大幅下跌引发了约 1.72 亿美元的杠杆多头头寸清算，考虑到价格下跌前 BTC 期货的未平仓合约数量较高，这一数额相对较小。因此，如果认为市场参与者对这一事件措手不及，那就过于简单化了。

Investors Await Clarity from Federal Reserve Minutes

投资者等待美联储会议纪要的明确内容

Analysts attribute the recent downturn to a combination of factors, including the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decisions. Investors are closely monitoring the Fed's minutes, expected to be released on May 1 after a two-day meeting, in anticipation of any changes in interest rates or economic outlook. Although it is widely anticipated that the Fed will maintain interest rates at 5.25%, skepticism persists regarding the U.S. Treasury Department's ability to finance the government's budget.

分析师将近期经济低迷归因于多种因素，其中包括美联储货币政策决策的不确定性。投资者正在密切关注美联储在为期两天的会议后预计将于 5 月 1 日发布的会议纪要，以预测利率或经济前景的任何变化。尽管人们普遍预计美联储将维持利率在 5.25%，但人们对美国财政部为政府预算提供资金的能力仍然持怀疑态度。

The yield on the U.S. Treasury 2-year note climbed to its highest level in five months on April 30, reaching 5.06%. This increase reflects investors seeking higher returns to compensate for the rising risks associated with the announcement of a $1.07 trillion deficit for the first half of 2024. Interest expenses on the deficit have risen by 23% in the first half of 2024 due to the Fed's interest rate hikes throughout 2023, and are expected to continue increasing as long as rates remain elevated.

4月30日，美国2年期国债收益率攀升至5个月来最高水平，达到5.06%。这一增长反映出投资者寻求更高的回报，以弥补与宣布 2024 年上半年 1.07 万亿美元赤字相关的不断上升的风险。由于美联储加息，2024 年上半年赤字的利息支出增加了 23% 2023 年全年加息，并且只要利率保持在高位，预计加息就会继续。

Risk Aversion Erodes Market Confidence

避险情绪削弱市场信心

Bitcoin is not the only asset class experiencing declines; broader macroeconomic conditions have made investors more risk-averse. The Russell 2000 Index (RTY), which tracks mid and small-cap U.S.-listed companies, has fallen by 8.2% over the last 30 days, eroding gains from the previous two months. WTI oil prices have also dropped by 8.3% since April 5, when they reached a five-month peak of $87.91.

比特币并不是唯一出现下跌的资产类别；更广泛的宏观经济状况使投资者更加厌恶风险。追踪美国中小型上市公司的罗素 2000 指数 (RTY) 在过去 30 天内下跌了 8.2%，侵蚀了前两个月的涨幅。自 4 月 5 日达到 87.91 美元的五个月高点以来，WTI 油价也下跌了 8.3%。

Encouraging Signals from Traditional Markets

传统市场发出鼓舞人心的信号

Analysts observe that Bitcoin's price correction may be reaching a potential bottom, citing signs of recovery in traditional markets. Strong first-quarter corporate earnings reports from major companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Netflix, TSMC, Samsung, Coca-Cola, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, HSBC, and Barclays have bolstered investor sentiment. While a temporary recovery in the stock market may divert investors' attention away from Bitcoin and other risk-on assets, traders could seek alternative investments if the Fed maintains higher rates for an extended period.

分析师指出，鉴于传统市场复苏的迹象，比特币的价格调整可能正在触底。亚马逊、微软、谷歌、Netflix、台积电、三星、可口可乐、摩根士丹利、花旗集团、汇丰银行和巴克莱银行等主要公司发布的第一季度强劲的企业盈利报告提振了投资者的情绪。虽然股市的暂时复苏可能会将投资者的注意力从比特币和其他风险资产上转移，但如果美联储长期维持较高利率，交易者可能会寻求其他投资。

Bitcoin Miners Under Pressure Amid Capitulation Fears

比特币矿工因投降担忧而面临压力

Bitcoin miners are facing significant challenges following the April 20 halving, which reduced their rewards by 50% to 3.125 BTC per block. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that current estimates of miners' outflows to exchanges do not indicate capitulation "for now." However, Young Ju cautioned that if the Bitcoin price decline persists for several weeks, large miners could be forced to liquidate substantial amounts of Bitcoin.

4 月 20 日减半后，比特币矿工面临着重大挑战，减半后他们的奖励减少了 50% 至每个区块 3.125 BTC。 CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 指出，目前对矿工流向交易所的估计并不意味着“目前”会屈服。然而，Young Ju警告说，如果比特币价格下跌持续数周，大型矿商可能会被迫清算大量比特币。

Hashrate Index Declines but Miners Remain Resilient

算力指数下降，但矿工保持弹性

Another indication of Bitcoin's potential price recovery is the steadfastness of miners, who have remained reluctant to sell despite a 57% drop in the Hashrate Index reported by Luxor Technology. This metric measures the daily expected return of one terahash of hashing power, taking into account network difficulty, Bitcoin's price, and transaction fees.

比特币价格潜在回升的另一个迹象是矿工的坚定态度，尽管 Luxor Technology 报告的算力指数下降了 57％，但他们仍然不愿出售比特币。该指标衡量 1 terahash 算力的每日预期回报，同时考虑到网络难度、比特币价格和交易费用。

Chinese Demand for Stablecoins Signals Optimism

中国对稳定币的需求表明乐观

To gauge the broader sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, analysts examine the demand for stablecoins in China, particularly for USD Coin (USDC). The premium on USDC transactions over the official U.S. dollar rate provides insights into retail investors' activities, indicating whether they are moving into or out of cryptocurrency markets.

为了衡量加密货币市场的整体情绪，分析师研究了中国对稳定币的需求，特别是美元硬币（USDC）。 USDC 交易相对于官方美元汇率的溢价可以洞察散户投资者的活动，表明他们是否正在进入或退出加密货币市场。

On May 1, the premium for USDC in China increased to 2.7%, indicating significant demand for converting Chinese Yuan (CNY) into USDC. This sustained interest suggests a positive sentiment toward cryptocurrencies in China, providing an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, which recently experienced a 20% price decline over three weeks.

5 月 1 日，USDC 在中国的溢价升至 2.7%，表明人民币 (CNY) 兑换 USDC 的需求旺盛。这种持续的兴趣表明中国对加密货币的积极情绪，为比特币提供了乐观的前景，比特币最近在三周内价格下跌了 20%。

U.S. Market Sentiment Remains Cautious

美国市场情绪依然谨慎

Despite potential improvements in market sentiment following the Federal Reserve's notes and the recognition that fears of miner capitulation are unfounded, the situation in U.S. markets presents a contrasting trend. Net outflows from U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) totaled $635 million in the past five trading days.

尽管美联储发布报告后市场情绪可能有所改善，并且人们认识到对矿商投降的担忧是没有根据的，但美国市场的情况却呈现出相反的趋势。过去五个交易日，美国上市现货交易所交易基金（ETF）净流出总计 6.35 亿美元。

Investment Flows Crucial in Price Determination

投资流向对价格决定至关重要

The disparity between the positive signals from China and the cautious sentiment in the U.S. emphasizes the importance of investment flows in determining Bitcoin's price movements. The current market conditions underscore the uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of the $56,500 support level.

中国的积极信号与美国的谨慎情绪之间的差异凸显了投资流在决定比特币价格走势方面的重要性。当前的市场状况凸显了 56,500 美元支撑位能否持续的不确定性。