比特幣減半：收益遞減，市場影響盛行

隨著時間的推移，比特幣減半導致價格收益遞減：第一次減半後為 8,858%，第二次減半後為 294%，第三次減半後為 540%。雖然這些回報可能看起來令人印象深刻，但它們部分歸因於聯準會貨幣供應量的增加和更廣泛的市場成熟度。比特幣的減半機制仍然是控制通膨的重要因素，每次減半都會減少新比特幣的供應，並增加現有比特幣的價值。

Bitcoin Halvings: Diminishing Returns and the Role of Market Events

比特幣減半：收益遞減與市場事件的作用

Introduction

介紹

Bitcoin's halving events, which occur approximately every four years, have historically been associated with substantial price gains. However, a recent report from CoinGecko suggests that the relationship between halvings and price appreciation may be changing, with diminishing returns becoming more evident.

比特幣的減半事件大約每四年發生一次，歷史上一直與價格的大幅上漲有關。然而，CoinGecko 最近的一份報告表明，減半和價格升值之間的關係可能​​正在發生變化，收益遞減變得更加明顯。

Historical Price Performance

歷史價格表現

The CoinGecko report analyzed the price behavior of Bitcoin following the first three halvings:

CoinGecko 報告分析了前三個減半後比特幣的價格行為：

• First Halving (November 28, 2012): Block reward reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Within one year, the price rose from ~$12 to $1,075, an 8,858% increase.
• Second Halving (July 9, 2016): Block reward reduced from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. Within one year, the price rose from ~$650 to $2,560, a 294% increase.
• Third Halving (May 11, 2020): Block reward reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. Within one year, the price rose from ~$8,727 to $55,847, a 540% increase.

Diminishing Returns

第一次減半（2012 年 11 月 28 日）：區塊獎勵從 50 BTC 減少到 25 BTC。一年之內，價格從約 12 美元上漲至 1,075 美元，漲幅為 8,858%。 第二次減半（2016 年 7 月 9 日）：區塊獎勵從 25 BTC 減少至 12.5 BTC。一年內，價格從約 650 美元上漲至 2,560 美元，漲幅達 294%。 第三次減半（2020 年 5 月 11 日）：區塊獎勵從 12.5 BTC 減少至 6.25 BTC。一年之內，價格從約 8,727 美元上漲至 55,847 美元，上漲 540%。收益遞減

While the percentage gains following the third halving exceeded those of the second halving, the report argues that this result is skewed by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies, which effectively increased the money supply and boosted asset prices.

儘管第三次減半後的百分比漲幅超過了第二次減半，但報告認為，這一結果受到聯準會量化寬鬆政策的影響，這些政策有效地增加了貨幣供應量並推高了資產價格。

Once the Fed began suppressing asset prices through interest rate hikes in March 2022, the trend reversed. This suggests that halving-driven price appreciation may be less significant than previously believed.

2022年3月聯準會開始透過升息壓制資產價格後，這一趨勢發生了逆轉。這表明減半驅動的價格上漲可能沒有之前認為的那麼嚴重。

Market Events and Maturity

市場事件和成熟度

The CoinGecko report emphasizes the dominant influence of market events and maturity on Bitcoin's price trajectory, with halvings serving as catalysts rather than sole determinants.

CoinGecko 報告強調了市場事件和成熟度對比特幣價格軌蹟的主導影響，減半是催化劑而不是唯一的決定因素。

For example, the Bitfinex hack in August 2016 offset the expected three-month price gains following the second halving, although the market eventually recovered and reached a new all-time high.

例如，2016 年 8 月的 Bitfinex 駭客攻擊抵消了第二次減半後預期的三個月價格上漲，儘管市場最終恢復並創下歷史新高。

The report also notes that Bitcoin's market capitalization has become increasingly influential in determining price movements. While the first halving had a negligible impact on market cap, subsequent halvings have been associated with significant increases.

報告也指出，比特幣的市值在決定價格走勢的影響力越來越大。雖然第一次減半對市值的影響可以忽略不計，但隨後的減半卻帶來了顯著的成長。

Inflation-Dampening Mechanism

抑制通膨機制

Despite the potential for diminishing price returns, Bitcoin's halving mechanism continues to serve as an effective inflation-dampening tool. Unlike fiat currencies, whose inflation rates are subject to central bank manipulation, Bitcoin's inflation rate is predictable and declines with each halving.

儘管價格回報可能會遞減，但比特幣的減半機制仍然是有效的抑制通膨的工具。與法定貨幣的通膨率受央行操縱不同，比特幣的通膨率是可預測的，並且隨著每次減半而下降。

As the supply of new BTC decreases, the scarcity of existing BTC increases, making it more valuable.

隨著新比特幣供應量的減少，現有比特幣的稀缺性增加，使其更有價值。

Methodology

方法

The CoinGecko report analyzed Bitcoin's price and market cap data following each halving, considering factors such as:

CoinGecko 報告分析了每次減半後的比特幣價格和市值數據，考慮了以下因素：

• Market conditions
• Regulatory changes
• Technological advancements
• Institutional adoption

Data on Bitcoin price and market cap was sourced from CoinGecko, while circulating supply data was obtained from Blockchain.com as of March 25, 2024.

市場狀況監管變化技術進步機構採用比特幣價格和市值數據來自 CoinGecko，而流通供應數據來自 Blockchain.com 截至 2024 年 3 月 25 日。

Conclusion

結論

While Bitcoin halving events have historically been associated with price appreciation, the CoinGecko report suggests that diminishing returns may be emerging. Market events and maturity now play a more significant role in price determination, with halvings serving as catalysts rather than sole drivers.

雖然比特幣減半事件歷來與價格升值有關，但 CoinGecko 報告表明，收益遞減可能正在出現。市場事件和成熟度現在在價格決定中發揮更重要的作用，減半充當催化劑而不是唯一的驅動因素。

However, the halving mechanism remains an integral aspect of Bitcoin's design, ensuring a predictable and declining inflation rate. As the supply of new BTC becomes increasingly limited, the value of existing BTC is expected to appreciate in the long term.

然而，減半機制仍然是比特幣設計的一個組成部分，確保通貨膨脹率可預測且不斷下降。隨著新比特幣的供應變得越來越有限，從長遠來看，現有比特幣的價值預計會升值。