比特币减半：收益递减，市场影响盛行

随着时间的推移，比特币减半导致价格收益递减：第一次减半后为 8,858%，第二次减半后为 294%，第三次减半后为 540%。虽然这些回报可能看起来令人印象深刻，但它们部分归因于美联储货币供应量的增加和更广泛的市场成熟度。比特币的减半机制仍然是控制通胀的一个重要因素，每次减半都会减少新比特币的供应，并增加现有比特币的价值。

Bitcoin Halvings: Diminishing Returns and the Role of Market Events

比特币减半：收益递减和市场事件的作用

Introduction

介绍

Bitcoin's halving events, which occur approximately every four years, have historically been associated with substantial price gains. However, a recent report from CoinGecko suggests that the relationship between halvings and price appreciation may be changing, with diminishing returns becoming more evident.

比特币的减半事件大约每四年发生一次，历史上一直与价格的大幅上涨有关。然而，CoinGecko 最近的一份报告表明，减半和价格升值之间的关系可能正在发生变化，收益递减变得更加明显。

Historical Price Performance

历史价格表现

The CoinGecko report analyzed the price behavior of Bitcoin following the first three halvings:

CoinGecko 报告分析了前三个减半后比特币的价格行为：

• First Halving (November 28, 2012): Block reward reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Within one year, the price rose from ~$12 to $1,075, an 8,858% increase.
• Second Halving (July 9, 2016): Block reward reduced from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. Within one year, the price rose from ~$650 to $2,560, a 294% increase.
• Third Halving (May 11, 2020): Block reward reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. Within one year, the price rose from ~$8,727 to $55,847, a 540% increase.

Diminishing Returns

第一次减半（2012 年 11 月 28 日）：区块奖励从 50 BTC 减少到 25 BTC。一年之内，价格从约 12 美元上涨至 1,075 美元，涨幅为 8,858%。 第二次减半（2016 年 7 月 9 日）：区块奖励从 25 BTC 减少至 12.5 BTC。一年内，价格从约 650 美元上涨至 2,560 美元，涨幅达 294%。 第三次减半（2020 年 5 月 11 日）：区块奖励从 12.5 BTC 减少至 6.25 BTC。一年之内，价格从约 8,727 美元上涨至 55,847 美元，上涨 540%。 收益递减

While the percentage gains following the third halving exceeded those of the second halving, the report argues that this result is skewed by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies, which effectively increased the money supply and boosted asset prices.

尽管第三次减半后的百分比涨幅超过了第二次减半，但报告认为，这一结果受到美联储量化宽松政策的影响，这些政策有效地增加了货币供应量并推高了资产价格。

Once the Fed began suppressing asset prices through interest rate hikes in March 2022, the trend reversed. This suggests that halving-driven price appreciation may be less significant than previously believed.

2022年3月美联储开始通过加息压制资产价格后，这一趋势发生了逆转。这表明减半驱动的价格上涨可能没有之前认为的那么严重。

Market Events and Maturity

市场事件和成熟度

The CoinGecko report emphasizes the dominant influence of market events and maturity on Bitcoin's price trajectory, with halvings serving as catalysts rather than sole determinants.

CoinGecko 报告强调了市场事件和成熟度对比特币价格轨迹的主导影响，减半是催化剂而不是唯一的决定因素。

For example, the Bitfinex hack in August 2016 offset the expected three-month price gains following the second halving, although the market eventually recovered and reached a new all-time high.

例如，2016 年 8 月的 Bitfinex 黑客攻击抵消了第二次减半后预期的三个月价格上涨，尽管市场最终恢复并创下历史新高。

The report also notes that Bitcoin's market capitalization has become increasingly influential in determining price movements. While the first halving had a negligible impact on market cap, subsequent halvings have been associated with significant increases.

该报告还指出，比特币的市值在决定价格走势方面的影响力越来越大。虽然第一次减半对市值的影响可以忽略不计，但随后的减半却带来了显着的增长。

Inflation-Dampening Mechanism

抑制通胀机制

Despite the potential for diminishing price returns, Bitcoin's halving mechanism continues to serve as an effective inflation-dampening tool. Unlike fiat currencies, whose inflation rates are subject to central bank manipulation, Bitcoin's inflation rate is predictable and declines with each halving.

尽管价格回报可能会递减，但比特币的减半机制仍然是有效的抑制通胀的工具。与法定货币的通胀率受央行操纵不同，比特币的通胀率是可预测的，并且随着每次减半而下降。

As the supply of new BTC decreases, the scarcity of existing BTC increases, making it more valuable.

随着新比特币供应量的减少，现有比特币的稀缺性增加，使其更有价值。

Methodology

方法

The CoinGecko report analyzed Bitcoin's price and market cap data following each halving, considering factors such as:

CoinGecko 报告分析了每次减半后的比特币价格和市值数据，考虑了以下因素：

• Market conditions
• Regulatory changes
• Technological advancements
• Institutional adoption

Data on Bitcoin price and market cap was sourced from CoinGecko, while circulating supply data was obtained from Blockchain.com as of March 25, 2024.

市场状况监管变化技术进步机构采用比特币价格和市值数据来自 CoinGecko，而流通供应数据来自 Blockchain.com 截至 2024 年 3 月 25 日。

Conclusion

结论

While Bitcoin halving events have historically been associated with price appreciation, the CoinGecko report suggests that diminishing returns may be emerging. Market events and maturity now play a more significant role in price determination, with halvings serving as catalysts rather than sole drivers.

虽然比特币减半事件历来与价格升值有关，但 CoinGecko 报告表明，收益递减可能正在出现。市场事件和成熟度现在在价格决定中发挥着更重要的作用，减半充当催化剂而不是唯一的驱动因素。

However, the halving mechanism remains an integral aspect of Bitcoin's design, ensuring a predictable and declining inflation rate. As the supply of new BTC becomes increasingly limited, the value of existing BTC is expected to appreciate in the long term.

然而，减半机制仍然是比特币设计的一个组成部分，确保通货膨胀率可预测且不断下降。随着新比特币的供应变得越来越有限，从长远来看，现有比特币的价值预计会升值。