比特幣減半迫在眉睫，引發影響和價格預測的爭論

定於4 月19 日進行的比特幣減半將大幅減少新比特幣的每日供應量，從900 枚減少至450 枚。減少而導致價格上漲，而另一些人則強調比特幣減半的不確定性。從歷史上看，減半會引發比特幣價格波動，但對價格的確切影響仍不清楚。此外，對比特幣挖礦業務的影響也是一個爭論的話題，有些人預計哈希率會下降，而另一些人則預計會轉向更有效的能源使用。減半也引發了關於比特幣稀缺性及其作為長期價值儲存潛力的討論。

On April 19, or whenever a bitcoin miner mines block number 840,000, the amount of bitcoin {{BTC}} entering into circulation will halve from about 900 a day to 450. This event, colloquially known as the halving (sometimes halvening), looms large in the Bitcoin mindshare, one of those things that makes Bitcoin Bitcoin. Perhaps because it only comes around on Leap Years (so far), bitcoiners tend to look forward to the halving more than most crypto holidays like Bitcoin Pizza Day or the anniversary of Satoshi Nakamoto publishing the white paper. But it won't be around forever.

4 月19 日，即每當比特幣礦工挖出第84 萬個區塊時，進入流通的比特幣{{BTC}} 數量將從每天約900 個減半至450 個。 ）迫在眉睫在比特幣中佔有很大的份額，這也是比特幣成為比特幣的原因之一。也許是因為它只在閏年出現（到目前為止），比特幣愛好者往往比大多數加密節日（例如比特幣披薩​​日或中本聰發佈白皮書的周年紀念日）更期待減半。但它不會永遠存在。

This roundup is part of CoinDesk’s “Future of Bitcoin” package.

本綜述是 CoinDesk 「比特幣的未來」一攬子計畫的一部分。

Once all 21 million bitcoins are mined, the halving will have served its purpose and cease (likely in 2140). Why did Nakamoto make it this way? No one knows. Just like there's no real insight into why he chose a 21 million cap or Jan. 9 as launch day. There are many, many guesstimates that try to make sense of these seemingly arbitrary elements of Bitcoin's design. Because if there's one thing certain about Bitcoin, it's that it tends to split opinions.

一旦所有 2,100 萬個比特幣被開採完畢，減半將達到其目的並停止（可能在 2140 年）。中本聰為何要這麼做？沒人知道。就像沒有真正了解他為什麼選擇 2100 萬上限或 1 月 9 日作為發布日一樣。有很多很多的猜測試圖理解比特幣設計中這些看似隨意的元素。因為如果說比特幣有一件事是確定的，那就是它往往會引發意見分歧。

And so, with an event as anticipated as the halving there are certainly things to argue over. Is it "priced in" (meaning will the reduction in supply of bitcoins entering the market cause a rally)? Will the reduced revenues drive bitcoin miners bankrupt? Will this time be any different?

因此，對於像減半這樣的預期事件，肯定有一些值得爭論的事情。它是否「定價」（意味著進入市場的比特幣供應量減少會導致反彈）？收入減少會導致比特幣礦商破產嗎？這次會有什麼不同嗎？

CoinDesk turned to the crypto community to get their say:

CoinDesk 向加密社群尋求意見：

Priced in?

定價在？

Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly Capital:

蜻蜓資本管理合夥人 Haseeb Qureshi：

I am a longtime halving nihilist. The halving is *what it means* for bitcoin to be deflationary. It's been priced in since the first time someone bought bitcoin because it has a fixed supply. The timing of the halving has been baked in since Bitcoin was first launched six years ago.

我是一個長期的減半虛無主義者。減半對於比特幣來說「意味著通貨緊縮」。自從有人第一次購買比特幣以來，它就已經被定價了，因為它有固定的供應量。自從六年前比特幣首次推出以來，減半的時間就已經確定了。

People drawing charts and rainbows and all this nonsense over an event that has deterministically happened four times (on an asset that already goes up almost every single year) is pseudoscientific nonsense. But whatever, it's a good story.

人們繪製圖表和彩虹以及所有這些關於確定性地發生了四次的事件的廢話（在幾乎每年都已經上漲的資產上）都是偽科學的廢話。但無論如何，這是一個好故事。

Austin Campbell, assistant professor at Columbia Business School:

哥倫比亞商學院助理教授奧斯汀‧坎貝爾：

As bitcoin gains more of a foothold in traditional finance, events that were drivers of past cycles like the halving will cease to have as much of an impact, if any. Portfolio allocators think in multi-year and multi-decade terms, and the impact of events like the halving will be muted as this market segment grows, just like any market growing from new to mainstream sees volatility due to small idiosyncratic events decrease as liquidity and scale increase.

隨著比特幣在傳統金融中獲得更多立足點，過去週期的驅動因素（如減半）將不再產生太大的影響（如果有的話）。投資組合配置者以多年和數十年的角度思考，隨著該細分市場的增長，減半等事件的影響將減弱，就像任何從新興市場發展到主流市場都會因小型特殊事件隨著流動性和流動性的減少而導致波動性一樣。

Azeem Khan, co-founder of Morph:

Morph 共同創辦人 Azeem Khan：

My personal opinion is the halving is likely priced in. We’ve seen institutional capital inflows for months now since the bitcoin spot ETF was approved. And even before that we were seeing a lot of liquidity enter the market without seeing traditional signs that retail was buying with things like Coinbase being the number one app in the App Store. To me, that indicated it was already institutional money coming in. They’re not dumb and have likely been buying ahead of this. Larry Fink didn’t get to where he is by accident.

我個人的觀點是，減半可能已被定價。甚至在此之前，我們就看到大量流動性進入市場，但沒有看到傳統跡象表明零售業正在購買 Coinbase 等應用程序，成為應用程式商店中排名第一的應用程式。對我來說，這表明機構資金已經進來了。拉里·芬克的成就絕非偶然。

My personal philosophy in this space has tended to be that when everyone agrees something is going to happen, it generally doesn’t. Similar to when we had Elon being a clown on SNL pumping $DOGE in 2021 and everyone had agreed it was going to $1, it dumped.

我在這個領域的個人哲學往往是，當每個人都同意某件事將會發生時，它通常不會發生。類似於 2021 年，埃隆 (Elon) 在《週六夜現場》(SNL) 上扮演小丑，賺到了 1 美元 DOGE，每個人都同意它會漲到 1 美元，結果就被拋售了。

The investing approach I abide by has always been to dollar cost average. Pick an amount you’re willing to lose, set an auto buy for that amount of whichever assets you’ve done your research on, continue to buy over the long term every X period, and never look at the price. If you’re investing with a long term approach in mind, this will help you beat out 99% of the noise you see from gambling addicts, some of which turned out to be the lottery winners of Crypto Twitter when zooming out through the years.

我遵循的投資方法一直是平均成本。選擇您願意損失的金額，為您研究過的任何資產設定自動購買金額，每 X 個週期繼續長期購買，並且從不看價格。如果你考慮的是長期投資，這將幫助你擊敗你所看到的 99% 的賭博成癮者的噪音，其中一些人在過去幾年中被證明是加密推特的彩票中獎者。

Not priced in

未定價

Edan Yago, founder of Sovryn:

Sovryn 創辦人 Edan Yago：

Definitely not priced in. Not even close. This is the most important halving since the first. This halving will bring new assets to Bitcoin in the form of Runes and the coming cycle will see Bitcoin Rollups add scalability and programmability to Bitcoin. Bitcoin block space will go from cheap to the scarcest computing resource in the world.

絕對沒有定價。這是自第一次減半以來最重要的減半。這次減半將以符文的形式為比特幣帶來新的資產，而在即將到來的周期中，比特幣匯總將增加比特幣的可擴展性和可編程性。比特幣區塊空間將從廉價性變成世界上最稀缺的運算資源。

Ogle, founder of Glue:

Glue創辦人Ogle：

I think this halving is distinct from prior ones because of the significant increase in capital coming into the market because of the ETF approvals. So you have a reduction of supply because of the halving itself, combined with increased demand from the ETFs — basic economic principles say this should result in a higher price. My guess is the halving has partially been priced in, but I don't think people quite realize the magnitude of buy pressure that is coming in via the ETFs — and that buy pressure is in my view going to significantly impact the price of BTC upward.

我認為這次減半與之前的減半不同，因為由於 ETF 的批准，進入市場的資本大幅增加。因此，由於減半本身，加上 ETF 的需求增加，供應量減少了——基本經濟原理表明，這應該會導致價格上漲。我的猜測是，減半已經部分反映在價格中，但我認為人們並沒有完全意識到透過 ETF 帶來的購買壓力的大小——而且在我看來，購買壓力將顯著影響 BTC 的價格上漲。

Uncle Rockstar Developer, core contributor to BTCPay:

Rockstar開發者大叔，BTCPay核心貢獻者：

Given the historical data — 9,575% increase post-2012, 3,233% post-2016, and 667% post-2020 — it's not a question of if the BTC/USD price will rise after this halving, but rather by how much. Feel free to quote me on that.

考慮到歷史數據——2012 年後增長 9,575%，2016 年後增長 3,233%，2020 年後增長 667%——問題不是 BTC/USD 價格在減半後是否會上漲，而是上漲多少。請隨意引用我的話。

This time it’s different

這次有所不同

Ed Hindi, chief investment officer at Tyr Capital:

Tyr Capital 首席投資長 Ed Hindi：

Bitcoin remains a viable doomsday asset in 2024, as its correlation to gold recently increased, and investors continue to diversify away from traditional financial assets. The ETF is currently spearheading this doomsday rally and we should expect $120,000 to be hit in the coming months as global geopolitics continues to deteriorate and the middle classes continue to find ways to protect their wealth.

比特幣在 2024 年仍然是一種可行的世界末日資產，因為它與黃金的相關性最近有所增加，而且投資者繼續從傳統金融資產轉向多元化。該 ETF 目前正在引領這場末日反彈，隨著全球地緣政治繼續惡化以及中產階級繼續尋找保護其財富的方法，我們預計未來幾個月將衝擊 12 萬美元。

We believe that price action ahead and post-halving is going to be different from past events as there are new variables affecting bitcoin. The combination of an uncertain geopolitical situation, choppy U.S. spot ETF flows, record leverage and recalibration of the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy is going to create an explosive combo and lead to extremely volatile market conditions. We would not be surprised to see BTC trade as low as $55,000 and as high as $75,000 in the coming couple of weeks. We remain very bullish into year-end though and consider $120,000 to be a realistic target.

我們認為，未來和減半後的價格走勢將與過去的事件有所不同，因為存在影響比特幣的新變數。不確定的地緣政治局勢、波動的美國現貨 ETF 流量、創紀錄的槓桿率以及聯準會貨幣政策的重新調整，這些因素結合在一起將形成爆炸性的組合，並導致市場狀況極度波動。如果未來幾週 BTC 交易價格低至 55,000 美元，高至 75,000 美元，我們不會感到驚訝。儘管如此，我們對年底仍然非常樂觀，並認為 12 萬美元是一個現實的目標。

Roger Ver, creator of Bitcoin Cash:

Roger Ver，比特幣現金的創造者：

Nothing special happened for the last three halvings. I don’t expect this time to be any different.

過去三個減半沒有什麼特別的事情發生。我預計這次不會有什麼不同。

See also: The Bitcoin Halving Really Is Different This Time

另請參閱：這次比特幣減半確實不同

Kadan Stadelmann, chief technology officer of Komodo Platform:

Komodo 平台技術長 Kadan Stadelmann：

The biggest difference between the 2020 halving and the 2024 halving is skyrocketing institutional demand. Prior to the previous halving, institutions were on the sidelines. The market was dominated by retail investors. Since then, the market dynamic has drastically shifted. As one example, MicroStrategy didn’t make its first BTC purchase until August 2020. As of April 2024, the company reportedly holds 214, 246 BTC (roughly $13.625 billion). Of the 21 million bitcoins that will ever exist, around 12.27% currently belong to publicly traded and private companies, ETFs and countries.

2020年減半和2024年減半最大的差別在於機構需求的暴漲。在上一次減半前，機構都處於觀望狀態。市場以散戶為主。從那時起，市場動態發生了巨大變化。舉個例子，MicroStrategy 直到 2020 年 8 月才買了第一筆 BTC。在未來存在的 2,100 萬枚比特幣中，目前約有 12.27% 屬於上市公司和私人公司、ETF 和國家。

Adam Blumberg, co-founder of Interaxis:

Interaxis 共同創辦人 Adam Blumberg：

The halving will have likely an impact on the price, as we have greater demand than ever from ETF investors, bitcoin hodlers and even corporations, and we're coupling that with decreasing new supply. We'll also see impact on miners who have tremendous capital and electricity outlays, and will get their production cut in half.

減半可能會對價格產生影響，因為 ETF 投資者、比特幣持有者甚至企業的需求比以往任何時候都大，而且我們正在將其與新供應量的減少結合起來。我們還將看到對擁有大量資本和電力支出的礦工的影響，並將其產量減半。

Impact on mining

對採礦業的影響

Colin Harper, researcher and writer for Luxor Technology’s Hashrate Index:

Luxor Technology 算力指數研究員兼撰稿人 Colin Harper：

This halving could be unprecedented with regards to how it affects Bitcoin's total network hashrate. It's plausible that we see no hashrate come offline after the halving, or that we will see the smallest decrease in network hashrate after any other halving event in Bitcoin's history. Mining margins won't be as good after the halving as they are now, obviously, but they won't be horrendous. And if the new Runes fungible token protocol makes a significant impact on transaction fees, then margins will be healthy enough to keep miners with higher costs online for longer than not.

就其對比特幣總網路哈希率的影響而言，這次減半可能是前所未有的。減半後我們可能沒有看到算力離線，或者我們將看到比特幣歷史上任何其他減半事件之後網路算力的最小下降。顯然，減半後的挖礦利潤不會像現在那麼好，但也不會那麼可怕。如果新的符文可替代代幣協議對交易費用產生重大影響，利潤將足夠健康，足以讓成本較高的礦工長時間在線。

For comparison, Bitcoin's hash rate declined 15% after the 2020 halving, 5% after 2016's halving, and 13% after 2012.

相較之下，比特幣的算力在 2020 年減半後下降了 15%，在 2016 年減半後下降了 5%，在 2012 年減半後下降了 13%。

See also: Why Bitcoin Halving Calculators Are Out of Sync

另請參閱：為什麼比特幣減半計算器不同步

Joe Downie, chief marketing officer at NiceHash:

NiceHash 行銷長 Joe Downie：

This halving is different, we will likely see less volatility than previous ones, for a few reasons: one is that Bitcoin mining is far stronger than it has ever been before in terms of hashrate, another is the level of legitimacy Bitcoin has gotten recently due to institutional funds and ETFs, plus the fact that a lot of people are in “wait and see” mode. This makes for a far more stable basis for BTC to hold its current value and gradually increase over the course of this year. There may be some short term volatility during the following week or two after the halving, but I expect things to stabilize quickly after that.

這次減半是不同的，我們可能會看到比以前更少的波動性，原因有幾個：一是比特幣挖礦在算力方面比以往任何時候都要強大，另一個是比特幣最近獲得的合法性水平機構基金和ETF，加上很多人處於「觀望」模式。這為比特幣保持當前價值並在今年逐步上漲奠定了更穩定的基礎。減半後的一兩週內可能會出現一些短期波動，但我預計此後情況會很快穩定下來。

Troy Cross, professor of philosophy at Reed College:

特洛伊·克羅斯（Troy Cross），里德學院哲學教授：

There are two sides of the halving story: price impact and mining impact. On the price side, I don't have anything to say. The "supply shock *should* be priced in, but every time I have thought that and every time I've been wrong. I won't pretend to read the collective psyche. With everyone anticipating that everyone else is irrational and *not* pricing it in, who knows what will happen?

減半的故事有兩個面向：價格影響和挖礦影響。價格方面，我沒什麼好說的。 「供給衝擊*應該*被計入價格，但每次我這麼想，每次我都錯了。我不會假裝讀懂了集體心理。每個人都預期其他人都是非理性的，並且*不是*定價，誰知道會發生什麼事？

I tweeted recently about the U.S. government’s holdings of bitcoin, over 200,000 bitcoins, and much of it Silk Road seizure. In terms of the impact on supply, that's at least as important as the halving event.

我最近在推特上談到了美國政府持有的比特幣，超過 20 萬枚比特幣，其中大部分是絲路扣押的。就對供應的影響而言，這至少與減半事件一樣重要。

But on the mining side, the halving does get me excited.

但在挖礦方面，減半確實讓我感到興奮。

The halving will force miners to seek out even cheaper power than they already have. Some miners will go under, selling off their equipment to those with more efficient operations.

減半將迫使礦工尋找比現有能源更便宜的電力。一些礦商將會破產，將他們的設備出售給那些營運效率更高的礦商。

The breakeven point for profitably running an ASIC will nearly drop in half. Miners will start curtailing more often, particularly their older machines.

營運 ASIC 的獲利損益平衡點將幾乎下降一半。礦工將開始更頻繁地削減產量，尤其是他們的舊機器。

What happens next depends on bitcoin's price action, but if prices do not rise dramatically, we will see a dip in hashrate while ASICs find cheaper homes, and then mining will settle into its "dung beetle" role, consuming only wasted, stranded energy.

接下來會發生什麼取決於比特幣的價格走勢，但如果價格沒有大幅上漲，我們將看到算力下降，而ASIC 會找到更便宜的房子，然後挖礦將扮演「糞甲蟲」的角色，只消耗浪費的、擱淺的能源。

The differences between a cost-sensitive consumer of energy like bitcoin and traditional data centers or AI data centers--or really any other electricity consumer--are already clear, but after the halving, bitcoin's flexibility — shutting down whenever electricity prices rise — and its opportunism, finding pockets of currently-stranded energy, bottlenecked by transmission constraints, will be even more dramatic.

像比特幣這樣對成本敏感的能源消費者與傳統資料中心或人工智慧資料中心（或實際上任何其他電力消費者）之間的差異已經很明顯，但在減半之後，比特幣的靈活性— —只要電價上漲就會關閉——並且它的機會主義行為將更加引人注目，即尋找目前因傳輸限製而陷入瓶頸的部分能源。

Effects on adoption

對採用的影響

Peter Todd, founder of OpenTimestamps and Bitcoin Core developer:

OpenTimestamps 創辦人兼比特幣核心開發者 Peter Todd：

The halving is one of the dumbest parts of how Bitcoin was designed. If you're going to reduce subsidy over time, the right way to do it is gradually, rather than shocking the system every four years. Fortunately fees are getting higher, so the risk of havings is reducing. Hopefully this one goes alright.

減半是比特幣設計中最愚蠢的部分之一。如果你打算隨著時間的推移減少補貼，正確的做法是逐步減少，而不是每四年對系統進行一次衝擊。幸運的是，費用越來越高，因此擁有的風險正在降低。希望這次一切順利。

Fortunately fees are getting higher, so the risk of havings is reducing. Hopefully this one goes alright.

幸運的是，費用越來越高，因此擁有的風險正在降低。希望這次一切順利。

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital:

Galaxy Digital 研究主管 Alex Thorn：

The Bitcoin halving is the programmatic mechanism that creates and enforces bitcoin’s most famous quality: its scarcity. While this fourth halving reduction in new daily issuance from ~900 BTC to ~450 BTC is small in absolute terms and relative to BTC’s daily float of $10-$25 billion, nonetheless prices are set on the margin. But beyond any supply impact – which I believe is marginal – this is the first halving in which major U.S. asset managers are educating on Bitcoin, and there’s no better Bitcoin education than learning about the halving. It’s a narrative event first – a quadrennial market moment – and a supply event second, though I think both aspects will be impactful.

比特幣減半是一種程式化機制，它創造並強化了比特幣最著名的特質：稀缺性。儘管每日新增發行量第四次減半從約900 BTC 減少至約450 BTC，從絕對值來看，相對於BTC 每日流通量10-250 億美元而言，幅度較小，但價格仍然是有限的。但除了供應影響之外——我認為這種影響是微乎其微的——這是美國主要資產管理公司正在進行比特幣教育的第一次減半，沒有比了解減半更好的比特幣教育了。這首先是一個敘事事件——四年一度的市場時刻——其次是供應事件，儘管我認為這兩方面都會產生影響。

Tatiana Koffman, general partner at Moonwalker Capital and author of the Myth of Money newsletter:

塔蒂亞娜‧科夫曼 (Tatiana Koffman)，Moonwalker Capital 普通合夥人、《金錢神話》通訊作者：

The most significant impact of the Bitcoin halving is its influence on the energy input and mining difficulty of Bitcoin, which inherently supports a higher baseline price for the cryptocurrency.

比特幣減半最顯著的影響是對比特幣的能源投入和挖礦難度的影響，這本質上支撐了加密貨幣更高的基準價格。

This phenomenon can be closely likened to gold mining, where the principle of scarcity plays a crucial role. As more gold is extracted, the remaining reserves become increasingly scarce, making it more challenging and costly to find and extract new deposits. This requires more investment in exploration and advanced machinery for mining and processing the gold.

這種現象與金礦開採非常相似，稀缺性原理在金礦開採中扮演至關重要的角色。隨著越來越多的黃金被開採出來，剩餘的儲量變得越來越稀缺，使得尋找和開採新礦床變得更具挑戰性且成本更高。這需要對勘探和先進的黃金開採和加工機械進行更多投資。

See also: Will the Next Bitcoin Halving Be Another Hype Cycle?

另請參閱：下一次比特幣減半會是另一個炒作週期嗎？

Similarly, Bitcoin's scarcity is engineered through a difficulty adjustment algorithm that halves the mining rewards roughly every four years. This not only reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are introduced but also adjusts the mining difficulty to maintain a steady rate of block creation, regardless of the total computational power on the network. This mechanism ensures that as Bitcoin becomes scarcer, the effort and cost to mine it increase, supporting its price over time.

同樣，比特幣的稀缺性是透過難度調整演算法設計的，該演算法大約每四年將挖礦獎勵減半。這不僅降低了新比特幣的引入速度，而且還調整了挖礦難度，以保持穩定的區塊創建速度，無論網路上的總運算能力如何。這種機制確保隨著比特幣變得越來越稀缺，開採它的工作量和成本都會增加，從而隨著時間的推移支撐其價格。

The halving mechanism is fundamental to preserving Bitcoin's integrity as a store of value. It underscores the cryptocurrency's deflationary nature, which is critical for its long-term valuation and the security of its network. By intentionally reducing the influx of new Bitcoins, the halving events reinforce Bitcoin's status as a digital equivalent of gold, making it a potentially attractive option for future generations looking for reliable value preservation in the face of inflationary fiat currencies.

減半機制對於維護比特幣作為價值儲存手段的完整性至關重要。它強調了加密貨幣的通貨緊縮性質，這對其長期估值和網路安全至關重要。透過有意減少新比特幣的湧入，減半事件強化了比特幣作為黃金數字等價物的地位，使其成為未來幾代人在面對通貨膨脹的法定貨幣時尋求可靠保值的潛在有吸引力的選擇。

Bradley Rettler, philosophy professor at the University of Wyoming:

Bradley Rettler，懷俄明大學哲學教授：

The bitcoin halving has two purposes. The first is to attract attention, thereby drawing ever more people into the network. The second is to reassure people that the rules are still in charge.

比特幣減半有兩個目的。首先是吸引註意力，從而吸引更多的人進入網路。第二是讓人們相信規則仍然有效。

Anil Lulla, co-founder of Delphi Digital:

德爾福數位聯合創始人阿尼爾·魯拉（Anil Lulla）：

I think the halving is always just a great marketing event built into Bitcoin every four years. It obviously has an impact on its supply, but more than that it gets everyone to pay attention to the asset and how it works. I think this halving is extra special because of two things (1) The ETF and (2) the Bitcoin Renaissance happening right now. The ETF is straightforward and widely covered, so I’ll focus on (2). Ordinals, Runes and BRC-20s. I don’t think the Bitcoin ecosystem has had this much excitement around it in years. It’s driving a lot of attention, experimentation and innovation to Bitcoin at a time when it’s much needed.

我認為減半始終只是比特幣每四年一次的一次偉大的行銷活動。它顯然對其供應產生了影響，但更重要的是，它讓每個人都專注於該資產及其運作方式。我認為這次減半非常特別，因為有兩件事（1）ETF 和（2）比特幣復興正在發生。 ETF 很簡單且涵蓋範圍廣泛，因此我將專注於 (2)。序號、符文和 BRC-20。我認為比特幣生態系統多年來從未如此令人興奮。在非常需要比特幣的時候，它引發了對比特幣的大量關注、實驗和創新。

Burak Tamac, adjunct professor at Montclair State University:

Burak Tamac，蒙特克萊爾州立大學兼任教授：

The Bitcoin halving reduces barriers to adoption in three key ways:

比特幣減半透過三個主要方式減少了採用的障礙：

1. The concept is not only easy to understand, but we need something to contrast when learning new concepts.

1.概念不僅容易理解，而且我們在學習新概念時需要一些東西來比較。

2. Comparing the halving to fiat money supply highlights the direct contrast between the two. However, these two factors alone won't drive rapid mass adoption. This is where the third point becomes crucial:

2. 將減半與法定貨幣供給量進行比較，凸顯了兩者之間的直接對比。然而，僅這兩個因素並不能推動快速大規模採用。這時候第三點就變得至關重要了：

3. It is also very easy to explain. New bitcoiners can quickly understand and convincingly share the concept with others.

3.也很容易解釋。新的比特幣愛好者可以快速理解並令人信服地與他人分享這個概念。

What distinguishes this halving is that not only bitcoiners but also major financial institutions have been educating their clients about its importance.

這次減半的與眾不同之處在於，不僅是比特幣持有者，主要金融機構也一直在向客戶宣傳減半的重要性。

What critics say

批評家怎麼說

Molly White, author the Citation Needed newsletter:

Molly White，《需要引用》時事通訊的作者：

Although responsible investment advisers will often warn that "past performance is no guarantee of future results", that's largely the kind of thought process that goes into predictions for the halving. "Number went up last time, so number go up again". More sophisticated explainers might delve into supply and demand, suggesting that the gradual closing of the bitcoin faucet amid roughly steady demand is what drives prices higher. Either way, some people are piling into bitcoin in belief of guaranteed double-your-money returns, if not better.

儘管負責任的投資顧問經常警告說“過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果”，但這在很大程度上是預測減半的思考過程。 「上次數字增加了，所以數字又增加了」。更複雜的解釋者可能會深入研究供給和需求，表明在需求大致穩定的情況下比特幣水龍頭的逐漸關閉是推動價格上漲的原因。不管怎樣，有些人湧入比特幣是因為他們相信，即使不是更好，也能保證雙倍回報。

These folks might do well to be a bit more cautious.

這些人最好更加謹慎一點。

See also: How the Bitcoin Halving Could Affect Network Security

另請參閱：比特幣減半如何影響網路安全

Gwern, polymath: Bitcoin has been boring for a long time. I can't think of a single thing about Bitcoin in the past four years I'd actually feel excited to write about. even stuff like Lightning slowly whimpering out should've been old news in 2020.

Gwern，博學者：比特幣已經無聊很久了。在過去的四年裡，我想不出任何關於比特幣的事情是我真正可以興奮地寫的。即使像閃電這樣慢慢消失的東西在 2020 年也應該是舊聞了。

Bennett Tomlin, head of research at Protos:

Protos 研究主管 Bennett Tomlin：

The Bitcoin halving serves the important function of reducing the incentives to waste energy on Bitcoin and ensuring that many poorly run bitcoin miners will once again be forced to confront the challenging economics of their businesses.

比特幣減半起到了重要作用，減少了在比特幣上浪費能源的動機，並確保許多經營不善的比特幣礦工將再次被迫面對其企業充滿挑戰的經濟狀況。

Bitfinex'ed, Tether critic:

Bitfinex'ed，Tether 評論家：

It’s not events that dictate price in crypto, prices in this market are determined by the heads of the market, notably Tether and their co-conspirators.

決定加密貨幣價格的不是事件，這個市場的價格是由市場負責人決定的，特別是 Tether 及其同謀。

If you want a quote from an influential person, Giancarlo Devasini, the CFO of Tether.

如果你想引用一位有影響力的人物的話，那就是 Tether 財務長 Giancarlo Devasini。

“Illiquid markets such as bitcoin are easy prey for manipulation”, being as the primary trading pair is Tether and not the U.S. dollar, the prices are whatever he wants them to be.

“像比特幣這樣的非流動性市場很容易被操縱”，因為主要交易對是 Tether 而不是美元，所以價格是他想要的任何價格。