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加密货币新闻

比特币减半迫在眉睫,引发有关影响和价格预测的争论

2024/04/17 01:57

定于 4 月 19 日进行的比特币减半将大幅减少新比特币的每日供应量,从 900 枚减少至 450 枚。专家们预计会产生不同的影响,一些人预测由于需求增加和供应量减少而导致价格上涨,而另一些人则强调比特币减半的不确定性。市场。从历史上看,减半会引发比特币价格波动,但其对价格的确切影响仍不清楚。此外,对比特币挖矿业务的影响也是一个争论的话题,一些人预计哈希率会下降,而另一些人预计会转向更有效的能源使用。减半还引发了关于比特币稀缺性及其作为长期价值储存潜力的讨论。

On April 19, or whenever a bitcoin miner mines block number 840,000, the amount of bitcoin {{BTC}} entering into circulation will halve from about 900 a day to 450. This event, colloquially known as the halving (sometimes halvening), looms large in the Bitcoin mindshare, one of those things that makes Bitcoin Bitcoin. Perhaps because it only comes around on Leap Years (so far), bitcoiners tend to look forward to the halving more than most crypto holidays like Bitcoin Pizza Day or the anniversary of Satoshi Nakamoto publishing the white paper. But it won't be around forever.

4 月 19 日,即每当比特币矿工挖出第 840,000 个区块时,进入流通的比特币 {{BTC}} 数量将从每天约 900 个减半至 450 个。这一事件(俗称减半)迫在眉睫在比特币中占有很大的份额,这也是比特币成为比特币的原因之一。也许是因为它只在闰年出现(到目前为止),比特币爱好者往往比大多数加密节日(例如比特币披萨日或中本聪发布白皮书的周年纪念日)更期待减半。但它不会永远存在。

This roundup is part of CoinDesk’s “Future of Bitcoin” package.

本综述是 CoinDesk “比特币的未来”一揽子计划的一部分。

Once all 21 million bitcoins are mined, the halving will have served its purpose and cease (likely in 2140). Why did Nakamoto make it this way? No one knows. Just like there's no real insight into why he chose a 21 million cap or Jan. 9 as launch day. There are many, many guesstimates that try to make sense of these seemingly arbitrary elements of Bitcoin's design. Because if there's one thing certain about Bitcoin, it's that it tends to split opinions.

一旦所有 2100 万个比特币被开采完毕,减半将达到其目的并停止(可能在 2140 年)。中本聪为何要这么做?没人知道。就像没有真正了解他为什么选择 2100 万上限或 1 月 9 日作为发布日一样。有很多很多的猜测试图理解比特币设计中这些看似随意的元素。因为如果说比特币有一件事是确定的,那就是它往往会引发意见分歧。

And so, with an event as anticipated as the halving there are certainly things to argue over. Is it "priced in" (meaning will the reduction in supply of bitcoins entering the market cause a rally)? Will the reduced revenues drive bitcoin miners bankrupt? Will this time be any different?

因此,对于像减半这样的预期事件,肯定有一些值得争论的事情。它是否“定价”(意味着进入市场的比特币供应量减少会导致反弹)?收入减少会导致比特币矿商破产吗?这次会有什么不同吗?

CoinDesk turned to the crypto community to get their say:

CoinDesk 向加密社区寻求意见:

Priced in?

定价在?

Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly Capital:

蜻蜓资本管理合伙人 Haseeb Qureshi:

I am a longtime halving nihilist. The halving is *what it means* for bitcoin to be deflationary. It's been priced in since the first time someone bought bitcoin because it has a fixed supply. The timing of the halving has been baked in since Bitcoin was first launched six years ago.

我是一个长期的减半虚无主义者。减半对于比特币来说“意味着通货紧缩”。自从有人第一次购买比特币以来,它就已经被定价了,因为它有固定的供应量。自六年前比特币首次推出以来,减半的时间就已经确定了。

People drawing charts and rainbows and all this nonsense over an event that has deterministically happened four times (on an asset that already goes up almost every single year) is pseudoscientific nonsense. But whatever, it's a good story.

人们绘制图表和彩虹以及所有这些关于确定性地发生了四次的事件的废话(在几乎每年都已经上涨的资产上)都是伪科学的废话。但无论如何,这是一个好故事。

Austin Campbell, assistant professor at Columbia Business School:

哥伦比亚商学院助理教授奥斯汀·坎贝尔:

As bitcoin gains more of a foothold in traditional finance, events that were drivers of past cycles like the halving will cease to have as much of an impact, if any. Portfolio allocators think in multi-year and multi-decade terms, and the impact of events like the halving will be muted as this market segment grows, just like any market growing from new to mainstream sees volatility due to small idiosyncratic events decrease as liquidity and scale increase.

随着比特币在传统金融中获得更多立足点,过去周期的驱动因素(如减半)将不再产生太大的影响(如果有的话)。投资组合配置者以多年和数十年的角度思考,随着该细分市场的增长,减半等事件的影响将减弱,就像任何从新兴市场发展到主流市场都会因小型特殊事件随着流动性和流动性的减少而导致波动性一样。规模增加。

Azeem Khan, co-founder of Morph:

Morph 联合创始人 Azeem Khan:

My personal opinion is the halving is likely priced in. We’ve seen institutional capital inflows for months now since the bitcoin spot ETF was approved. And even before that we were seeing a lot of liquidity enter the market without seeing traditional signs that retail was buying with things like Coinbase being the number one app in the App Store. To me, that indicated it was already institutional money coming in. They’re not dumb and have likely been buying ahead of this. Larry Fink didn’t get to where he is by accident.

我个人的观点是,减半可能已被定价。自比特币现货 ETF 获得批准以来,我们已经看到机构资本流入数月了。甚至在此之前,我们就看到大量流动性进入市场,但没有看到传统迹象表明零售业正在购买 Coinbase 等应用程序,成为应用程序商店中排名第一的应用程序。对我来说,这表明机构资金已经进来了。他们并不傻,很可能在此之前就已经买入了。拉里·芬克的成就绝非偶然。

My personal philosophy in this space has tended to be that when everyone agrees something is going to happen, it generally doesn’t. Similar to when we had Elon being a clown on SNL pumping $DOGE in 2021 and everyone had agreed it was going to $1, it dumped.

我在这个领域的个人哲学往往是,当每个人都同意某件事将会发生时,它通常不会发生。类似于 2021 年,埃隆 (Elon) 在《周六夜现场》(SNL) 上扮演小丑,赚到了 1 美元 DOGE,每个人都同意它会涨到 1 美元,结果就被抛售了。

The investing approach I abide by has always been to dollar cost average. Pick an amount you’re willing to lose, set an auto buy for that amount of whichever assets you’ve done your research on, continue to buy over the long term every X period, and never look at the price. If you’re investing with a long term approach in mind, this will help you beat out 99% of the noise you see from gambling addicts, some of which turned out to be the lottery winners of Crypto Twitter when zooming out through the years.

我遵循的投资方法一直是平均成本。选择您愿意损失的金额,为您研究过的任何资产设置自动购买金额,每 X 个周期继续长期购买,并且从不看价格。如果你考虑的是长期投资,这将帮助你击败你所看到的 99% 的赌博成瘾者的噪音,其中一些人在过去几年中被证明是加密推特的彩票中奖者。

Not priced in

未定价

Edan Yago, founder of Sovryn:

Sovryn 创始人 Edan Yago:

Definitely not priced in. Not even close. This is the most important halving since the first. This halving will bring new assets to Bitcoin in the form of Runes and the coming cycle will see Bitcoin Rollups add scalability and programmability to Bitcoin. Bitcoin block space will go from cheap to the scarcest computing resource in the world.

绝对没有定价。甚至还没有接近。这是自第一次减半以来最重要的减半。这次减半将以符文的形式为比特币带来新的资产,而在即将到来的周期中,比特币汇总将增加比特币的可扩展性和可编程性。比特币区块空间将从廉价变成世界上最稀缺的计算资源。

Ogle, founder of Glue:

Glue创始人Ogle:

I think this halving is distinct from prior ones because of the significant increase in capital coming into the market because of the ETF approvals. So you have a reduction of supply because of the halving itself, combined with increased demand from the ETFs — basic economic principles say this should result in a higher price. My guess is the halving has partially been priced in, but I don't think people quite realize the magnitude of buy pressure that is coming in via the ETFs — and that buy pressure is in my view going to significantly impact the price of BTC upward.

我认为这次减半与之前的减半不同,因为由于 ETF 的批准,进入市场的资本大幅增加。因此,由于减半本身,加上 ETF 的需求增加,供应量减少了——基本经济原理表明,这应该会导致价格上涨。我的猜测是,减半已经部分反映在价格中,但我认为人们并没有完全意识到通过 ETF 带来的购买压力的大小——而且在我看来,购买压力将显着影响 BTC 的价格上涨。

Uncle Rockstar Developer, core contributor to BTCPay:

Rockstar开发者大叔,BTCPay核心贡献者:

Given the historical data — 9,575% increase post-2012, 3,233% post-2016, and 667% post-2020 — it's not a question of if the BTC/USD price will rise after this halving, but rather by how much. Feel free to quote me on that.

考虑到历史数据——2012 年之后增长 9,575%,2016 年之后增长 3,233%,2020 年之后增长 667%——问题不是 BTC/USD 价格在减半后是否会上涨,而是上涨多少。请随意引用我的话。

This time it’s different

这次有所不同

Ed Hindi, chief investment officer at Tyr Capital:

Tyr Capital 首席投资官 Ed Hindi:

Bitcoin remains a viable doomsday asset in 2024, as its correlation to gold recently increased, and investors continue to diversify away from traditional financial assets. The ETF is currently spearheading this doomsday rally and we should expect $120,000 to be hit in the coming months as global geopolitics continues to deteriorate and the middle classes continue to find ways to protect their wealth.

比特币在 2024 年仍然是一种可行的世界末日资产,因为它与黄金的相关性最近有所增加,而且投资者继续从传统金融资产转向多元化。该 ETF 目前正在引领这场末日反弹,随着全球地缘政治继续恶化以及中产阶级继续寻找保护其财富的方法,我们预计未来几个月将冲击 120,000 美元。

We believe that price action ahead and post-halving is going to be different from past events as there are new variables affecting bitcoin. The combination of an uncertain geopolitical situation, choppy U.S. spot ETF flows, record leverage and recalibration of the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy is going to create an explosive combo and lead to extremely volatile market conditions. We would not be surprised to see BTC trade as low as $55,000 and as high as $75,000 in the coming couple of weeks. We remain very bullish into year-end though and consider $120,000 to be a realistic target.

我们认为,未来和减半后的价格走势将与过去的事件有所不同,因为存在影响比特币的新变量。不确定的地缘政治局势、波动的美国现货 ETF 流量、创纪录的杠杆率以及美联储货币政策的重新调整,这些因素结合在一起将形成爆炸性的组合,并导致市场状况极度波动。如果未来几周 BTC 交易价格低至 55,000 美元,高至 75,000 美元,我们不会感到惊讶。尽管如此,我们对年底仍然非常乐观,并认为 120,000 美元是一个现实的目标。

Roger Ver, creator of Bitcoin Cash:

Roger Ver,比特币现金的创造者:

Nothing special happened for the last three halvings. I don’t expect this time to be any different.

过去三个减半没有什么特别的事情发生。我预计这次不会有什么不同。

See also: The Bitcoin Halving Really Is Different This Time

另请参阅:这次比特币减半确实不同

Kadan Stadelmann, chief technology officer of Komodo Platform:

Komodo 平台首席技术官 Kadan Stadelmann:

The biggest difference between the 2020 halving and the 2024 halving is skyrocketing institutional demand. Prior to the previous halving, institutions were on the sidelines. The market was dominated by retail investors. Since then, the market dynamic has drastically shifted. As one example, MicroStrategy didn’t make its first BTC purchase until August 2020. As of April 2024, the company reportedly holds 214, 246 BTC (roughly $13.625 billion). Of the 21 million bitcoins that will ever exist, around 12.27% currently belong to publicly traded and private companies, ETFs and countries.

2020年减半和2024年减半最大的区别在于机构需求的暴涨。在上一次减半之前,机构都处于观望状态。市场以散户投资者为主。从那时起,市场动态发生了巨大变化。举个例子,MicroStrategy 直到 2020 年 8 月才购买了第一笔 BTC。据报道,截至 2024 年 4 月,该公司持有 214、246 个 BTC(约合 136.25 亿美元)。在未来存在的 2100 万枚比特币中,目前约有 12.27% 属于上市公司和私营公司、ETF 和国家。

Adam Blumberg, co-founder of Interaxis:

Interaxis 联合创始人 Adam Blumberg:

The halving will have likely an impact on the price, as we have greater demand than ever from ETF investors, bitcoin hodlers and even corporations, and we're coupling that with decreasing new supply. We'll also see impact on miners who have tremendous capital and electricity outlays, and will get their production cut in half.

减半可能会对价格产生影响,因为 ETF 投资者、比特币持有者甚至企业的需求比以往任何时候都大,而且我们正在将其与新供应量的减少结合起来。我们还将看到对拥有大量资本和电力支出的矿工的影响,并将其产量减半。

Impact on mining

对采矿业的影响

Colin Harper, researcher and writer for Luxor Technology’s Hashrate Index:

Luxor Technology 算力指数研究员兼撰稿人 Colin Harper:

This halving could be unprecedented with regards to how it affects Bitcoin's total network hashrate. It's plausible that we see no hashrate come offline after the halving, or that we will see the smallest decrease in network hashrate after any other halving event in Bitcoin's history. Mining margins won't be as good after the halving as they are now, obviously, but they won't be horrendous. And if the new Runes fungible token protocol makes a significant impact on transaction fees, then margins will be healthy enough to keep miners with higher costs online for longer than not.

就其对比特币总网络哈希率的影响而言,这次减半可能是前所未有的。减半后我们可能没有看到算力离线,或者我们将看到比特币历史上任何其他减半事件之后网络算力的最小下降。显然,减半后的挖矿利润不会像现在那么好,但也不会那么可怕。如果新的符文可替代代币协议对交易费用产生重大影响,那么利润将足够健康,足以让成本较高的矿工长时间在线。

For comparison, Bitcoin's hash rate declined 15% after the 2020 halving, 5% after 2016's halving, and 13% after 2012.

相比之下,比特币的算力在 2020 年减半后下降了 15%,在 2016 年减半后下降了 5%,在 2012 年减半后下降了 13%。

See also: Why Bitcoin Halving Calculators Are Out of Sync

另请参阅:为什么比特币减半计算器不同步

Joe Downie, chief marketing officer at NiceHash:

NiceHash 首席营销官 Joe Downie:

This halving is different, we will likely see less volatility than previous ones, for a few reasons: one is that Bitcoin mining is far stronger than it has ever been before in terms of hashrate, another is the level of legitimacy Bitcoin has gotten recently due to institutional funds and ETFs, plus the fact that a lot of people are in “wait and see” mode. This makes for a far more stable basis for BTC to hold its current value and gradually increase over the course of this year. There may be some short term volatility during the following week or two after the halving, but I expect things to stabilize quickly after that.

这次减半是不同的,我们可能会看到比以前更少的波动性,原因有几个:一是比特币挖矿在算力方面比以往任何时候都要强大,另一个是比特币最近获得的合法性水平机构基金和ETF,加上很多人处于“观望”模式。这为比特币保持当前价值并在今年逐步上涨奠定了更加稳定的基础。减半后的一两周内可能会出现一些短期波动,但我预计此后情况会很快稳定下来。

Troy Cross, professor of philosophy at Reed College:

特洛伊·克罗斯(Troy Cross),里德学院哲学教授:

There are two sides of the halving story: price impact and mining impact. On the price side, I don't have anything to say. The "supply shock *should* be priced in, but every time I have thought that and every time I've been wrong. I won't pretend to read the collective psyche. With everyone anticipating that everyone else is irrational and *not* pricing it in, who knows what will happen?

减半的故事有两个方面:价格影响和挖矿影响。价格方面,我没什么可说的。 “供给冲击*应该*被计入价格,但每次我这么想,每次我都错了。我不会假装读懂了集体心理。每个人都预期其他人都是非理性的,并且*不是*定价,谁知道会发生什么?

I tweeted recently about the U.S. government’s holdings of bitcoin, over 200,000 bitcoins, and much of it Silk Road seizure. In terms of the impact on supply, that's at least as important as the halving event.

我最近在推特上谈到了美国政府持有的比特币,超过 20 万枚比特币,其中大部分是丝绸之路扣押的。就对供应的影响而言,这至少与减半事件一样重要。

But on the mining side, the halving does get me excited.

但在挖矿方面,减半确实让我兴奋。

The halving will force miners to seek out even cheaper power than they already have. Some miners will go under, selling off their equipment to those with more efficient operations.

减半将迫使矿工寻找比现有能源更便宜的电力。一些矿商将会破产,将他们的设备出售给那些运营效率更高的矿商。

The breakeven point for profitably running an ASIC will nearly drop in half. Miners will start curtailing more often, particularly their older machines.

运营 ASIC 的盈利盈亏平衡点将几乎下降一半。矿工将开始更频繁地削减产量,尤其是他们的旧机器。

What happens next depends on bitcoin's price action, but if prices do not rise dramatically, we will see a dip in hashrate while ASICs find cheaper homes, and then mining will settle into its "dung beetle" role, consuming only wasted, stranded energy.

接下来会发生什么取决于比特币的价格走势,但如果价格没有大幅上涨,我们将看到算力下降,而 ASIC 会找到更便宜的房子,然后挖矿将扮演“粪甲虫”的角色,只消耗浪费的、搁浅的能源。

The differences between a cost-sensitive consumer of energy like bitcoin and traditional data centers or AI data centers--or really any other electricity consumer--are already clear, but after the halving, bitcoin's flexibility — shutting down whenever electricity prices rise — and its opportunism, finding pockets of currently-stranded energy, bottlenecked by transmission constraints, will be even more dramatic.

像比特币这样对成本敏感的能源消费者与传统数据中心或人工智能数据中心(或者实际上任何其他电力消费者)之间的差异已经很明显,但在减半之后,比特币的灵活性——只要电价上涨就会关闭——并且它的机会主义行为将更加引人注目,即寻找目前因传输限制而陷入瓶颈的部分能源。

Effects on adoption

对采用的影响

Peter Todd, founder of OpenTimestamps and Bitcoin Core developer:

OpenTimestamps 创始人兼比特币核心开发者 Peter Todd:

The halving is one of the dumbest parts of how Bitcoin was designed. If you're going to reduce subsidy over time, the right way to do it is gradually, rather than shocking the system every four years. Fortunately fees are getting higher, so the risk of havings is reducing. Hopefully this one goes alright.

减半是比特币设计中最愚蠢的部分之一。如果你打算随着时间的推移减少补贴,正确的做法是逐步减少,而不是每四年对系统进行一次冲击。幸运的是,费用越来越高,因此拥有的风险正在降低。希望这次一切顺利。

Fortunately fees are getting higher, so the risk of havings is reducing. Hopefully this one goes alright.

幸运的是,费用越来越高,因此拥有的风险正在降低。希望这次一切顺利。

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital:

Galaxy Digital 研究主管 Alex Thorn:

The Bitcoin halving is the programmatic mechanism that creates and enforces bitcoin’s most famous quality: its scarcity. While this fourth halving reduction in new daily issuance from ~900 BTC to ~450 BTC is small in absolute terms and relative to BTC’s daily float of $10-$25 billion, nonetheless prices are set on the margin. But beyond any supply impact – which I believe is marginal – this is the first halving in which major U.S. asset managers are educating on Bitcoin, and there’s no better Bitcoin education than learning about the halving. It’s a narrative event first – a quadrennial market moment – and a supply event second, though I think both aspects will be impactful.

比特币减半是一种程序化机制,它创造并强化了比特币最著名的品质:稀缺性。尽管每日新增发行量第四次减半从约 900 BTC 减少至约 450 BTC,从绝对值来看,相对于 BTC 每日流通量 10-250 亿美元而言,幅度较小,但价格仍然是有限的。但除了供应影响之外——我认为这种影响是微乎其微的——这是美国主要资产管理公司正在进行比特币教育的第一次减半,没有比了解减半更好的比特币教育了。这首先是一个叙事事件——四年一度的市场时刻——其次是供应事件,尽管我认为这两方面都会产生影响。

Tatiana Koffman, general partner at Moonwalker Capital and author of the Myth of Money newsletter:

塔蒂亚娜·科夫曼 (Tatiana Koffman),Moonwalker Capital 普通合伙人、《金钱神话》通讯作者:

The most significant impact of the Bitcoin halving is its influence on the energy input and mining difficulty of Bitcoin, which inherently supports a higher baseline price for the cryptocurrency.

比特币减半最显着的影响是对比特币的能源投入和挖矿难度的影响,这本质上支撑了加密货币更高的基准价格。

This phenomenon can be closely likened to gold mining, where the principle of scarcity plays a crucial role. As more gold is extracted, the remaining reserves become increasingly scarce, making it more challenging and costly to find and extract new deposits. This requires more investment in exploration and advanced machinery for mining and processing the gold.

这种现象与金矿开采非常相似,稀缺性原理在金矿开采中发挥着至关重要的作用。随着越来越多的黄金被开采出来,剩余的储量变得越来越稀缺,使得寻找和开采新矿床变得更具挑战性且成本更高。这需要对勘探和先进的黄金开采和加工机械进行更多投资。

See also: Will the Next Bitcoin Halving Be Another Hype Cycle?

另请参阅:下一次比特币减半会是另一个炒作周期吗?

Similarly, Bitcoin's scarcity is engineered through a difficulty adjustment algorithm that halves the mining rewards roughly every four years. This not only reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are introduced but also adjusts the mining difficulty to maintain a steady rate of block creation, regardless of the total computational power on the network. This mechanism ensures that as Bitcoin becomes scarcer, the effort and cost to mine it increase, supporting its price over time.

同样,比特币的稀缺性是通过难度调整算法设计的,该算法大约每四年将挖矿奖励减半。这不仅降低了新比特币的引入速度,而且还调整了挖矿难度,以保持稳定的区块创建速度,无论网络上的总计算能力如何。这种机制确保随着比特币变得越来越稀缺,开采它的工作量和成本都会增加,从而随着时间的推移支撑其价格。

The halving mechanism is fundamental to preserving Bitcoin's integrity as a store of value. It underscores the cryptocurrency's deflationary nature, which is critical for its long-term valuation and the security of its network. By intentionally reducing the influx of new Bitcoins, the halving events reinforce Bitcoin's status as a digital equivalent of gold, making it a potentially attractive option for future generations looking for reliable value preservation in the face of inflationary fiat currencies.

减半机制对于维护比特币作为价值储存手段的完整性至关重要。它强调了加密货币的通货紧缩性质,这对其长期估值和网络安全至关重要。通过有意减少新比特币的涌入,减半事件强化了比特币作为黄金数字等价物的地位,使其成为未来几代人在面对通货膨胀的法定货币时寻求可靠保值的潜在有吸引力的选择。

Bradley Rettler, philosophy professor at the University of Wyoming:

Bradley Rettler,怀俄明大学哲学教授:

The bitcoin halving has two purposes. The first is to attract attention, thereby drawing ever more people into the network. The second is to reassure people that the rules are still in charge.

比特币减半有两个目的。首先是吸引注意力,从而吸引更多的人进入网络。第二是让人们相信规则仍然有效。

Anil Lulla, co-founder of Delphi Digital:

德尔福数字联合创始人阿尼尔·鲁拉(Anil Lulla):

I think the halving is always just a great marketing event built into Bitcoin every four years. It obviously has an impact on its supply, but more than that it gets everyone to pay attention to the asset and how it works. I think this halving is extra special because of two things (1) The ETF and (2) the Bitcoin Renaissance happening right now. The ETF is straightforward and widely covered, so I’ll focus on (2). Ordinals, Runes and BRC-20s. I don’t think the Bitcoin ecosystem has had this much excitement around it in years. It’s driving a lot of attention, experimentation and innovation to Bitcoin at a time when it’s much needed.

我认为减半始终只是比特币每四年一次的一次伟大的营销活动。它显然对其供应产生了影响,但更重要的是,它让每个人都关注该资产及其运作方式。我认为这次减半非常特别,因为有两件事(1)ETF 和(2)比特币复兴正在发生。 ETF 很简单且涵盖范围广泛,因此我将重点关注 (2)。序号、符文和 BRC-20。我认为比特币生态系统多年来从未如此令人兴奋。在非常需要比特币的时候,它引发了对比特币的大量关注、实验和创新。

Burak Tamac, adjunct professor at Montclair State University:

Burak Tamac,蒙特克莱尔州立大学兼职教授:

The Bitcoin halving reduces barriers to adoption in three key ways:

比特币减半通过三个主要方式减少了采用的障碍:

1. The concept is not only easy to understand, but we need something to contrast when learning new concepts.

1.概念不仅容易理解,而且我们在学习新概念时需要一些东西来对比。

2. Comparing the halving to fiat money supply highlights the direct contrast between the two. However, these two factors alone won't drive rapid mass adoption. This is where the third point becomes crucial:

2. 将减半与法定货币供应量进行比较,凸显了两者之间的直接对比。然而,仅这两个因素并不能推动快速大规模采用。这时候第三点就变得至关重要了:

3. It is also very easy to explain. New bitcoiners can quickly understand and convincingly share the concept with others.

3.也很容易解释。新的比特币爱好者可以快速理解并令人信服地与他人分享这个概念。

What distinguishes this halving is that not only bitcoiners but also major financial institutions have been educating their clients about its importance.

这次减半的与众不同之处在于,不仅比特币持有者,而且主要金融机构也一直在向客户宣传减半的重要性。

What critics say

批评家怎么说

Molly White, author the Citation Needed newsletter:

Molly White,《需要引文》时事通讯的作者:

Although responsible investment advisers will often warn that "past performance is no guarantee of future results", that's largely the kind of thought process that goes into predictions for the halving. "Number went up last time, so number go up again". More sophisticated explainers might delve into supply and demand, suggesting that the gradual closing of the bitcoin faucet amid roughly steady demand is what drives prices higher. Either way, some people are piling into bitcoin in belief of guaranteed double-your-money returns, if not better.

尽管负责任的投资顾问经常警告说“过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果”,但这在很大程度上是预测减半的思维过程。 “上次数字增加了,所以数字又增加了”。更复杂的解释者可能会深入研究供给和需求,表明在需求大致稳定的情况下比特币水龙头的逐渐关闭是推动价格上涨的原因。不管怎样,一些人涌入比特币是因为他们相信,即使不是更好,也能保证双倍回报。

These folks might do well to be a bit more cautious.

这些人最好更加谨慎一点。

See also: How the Bitcoin Halving Could Affect Network Security

另请参阅:比特币减半如何影响网络安全

Gwern, polymath: Bitcoin has been boring for a long time. I can't think of a single thing about Bitcoin in the past four years I'd actually feel excited to write about. even stuff like Lightning slowly whimpering out should've been old news in 2020.

Gwern,博学者:比特币已经无聊很长时间了。在过去的四年里,我想不出任何关于比特币的事情是我真正可以兴奋地写的。即使像闪电这样慢慢消失的东西在 2020 年也应该是旧闻了。

Bennett Tomlin, head of research at Protos:

Protos 研究主管 Bennett Tomlin:

The Bitcoin halving serves the important function of reducing the incentives to waste energy on Bitcoin and ensuring that many poorly run bitcoin miners will once again be forced to confront the challenging economics of their businesses.

比特币减半起到了重要作用,减少了在比特币上浪费能源的动机,并确保许多经营不善的比特币矿工将再次被迫面对其企业充满挑战的经济状况。

Bitfinex'ed, Tether critic:

Bitfinex'ed,Tether 评论家:

It’s not events that dictate price in crypto, prices in this market are determined by the heads of the market, notably Tether and their co-conspirators.

决定加密货币价格的不是事件,这个市场的价格是由市场负责人决定的,特别是 Tether 及其同谋。

If you want a quote from an influential person, Giancarlo Devasini, the CFO of Tether.

如果你想引用一位有影响力的人物的话,那就是 Tether 首席财务官吉安卡洛·德瓦西尼 (Giancarlo Devasini)。

“Illiquid markets such as bitcoin are easy prey for manipulation”, being as the primary trading pair is Tether and not the U.S. dollar, the prices are whatever he wants them to be.

“像比特币这样的非流动性市场很容易被操纵”,因为主要交易对是 Tether 而不是美元,所以价格是他想要的任何价格。

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2025年01月07日 发表的其他文章